Ambri-Piotta vs Lugano Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

O4.5 1.40

Confidence71%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%

Full game

1X2WonAmbri-Piottaodds up 2.19Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.40Confidence 71%
HandicapWonLugano +1.5odds up 1.29Confidence 67%
Winner (incl. OT)WonAmbri-Piottaodds up 1.78Confidence 54%
Double chanceWonAmbri-Piotta or draw1.45Confidence 66%
Draw no betWonAmbri-Piottaodds up 1.74Confidence 56%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.09Confidence 88%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostAmbri-Piotta2.65Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.81Confidence 54%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Ambri-Piotta 32

Lugano

Final 4–3

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 7

Draw after 60 minDraw 22% Decided in regulation

AMB to winTo win 53% AMB won

Score details

Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min4–34%chance
1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–17%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 2nd & 3rd30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 3-2
By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 4-3 (3%), 5-4 (1%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record10-5-27-8-2

Home / road split5-3-13-5-1

StreakL1W1

RestBack-to-back1 day

Goals for3.13.2

Goals against2.93.4

In the standings2nd12th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.5−0.4

Goals for3.02.8

Goals against2.53.2

Shots on goal31.531.2

Shots against29.228.5

Shooting %9.5%9.0%

Save %92.1%88.8%

Power-play %29.4%15.4%

Penalty kill %69.2%78.4%

Faceoff %52.7%51.8%

Penalty minutes5.57.3

Blocked shots16.215.3

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Ambri-Piotta 32

Lugano

Ambri-Piotta won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 5.8 AMB 2.6 · LUG 3.2

Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5 3 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 0 of 5 All decided in regulation

Sep 26, 2026: Lugano 3, Ambri-Piotta 5.
Jan 29, 2026: Ambri-Piotta 3, Lugano 2.
Nov 28, 2025: Lugano 5, Ambri-Piotta 1.
Oct 28, 2025: Ambri-Piotta 2, Lugano 5.
Sep 30, 2025: Lugano 1, Ambri-Piotta 2.

Last five games

Ambri-Piotta 3-1-1

Overtime loss, 3–4 at Zurich, after a shootout, Oct 30. Odds: Zurich 1.44, Ambri-Piotta 5.25.
Win, 4–3 against Biel, after a shootout, Oct 27. Odds: Ambri-Piotta 1.95, Biel 3.00.
Win, 3–0 against Ajoie, Oct 24. Odds: Ambri-Piotta 1.77, Ajoie 3.57.
Loss, 3–6 at Rapperswil-Jona, Oct 23. Odds: Rapperswil 2.30, Ambri-Piotta 2.50.
Win, 3–2 against Fribourg, Oct 20. Odds: Ambri-Piotta 2.65, Fribourg 2.00.

Lugano 2-2-1

Win, 4–0 against Lausanne, Oct 29. Odds: Lugano 2.20, Lausanne 2.65.
Loss, 2–7 at Zug, Oct 27. Odds: Zug 1.77, Lugano 3.60.
Overtime loss, 1–2 at Bern, after overtime, Oct 25. Odds: Bern 1.80, Lugano 3.50.
Loss, 2–5 against EHC Kloten, Oct 23. Odds: Lugano 1.46, Kloten 5.00.
Win, 5–2 at Servette, Oct 20. Odds: Servette 2.22, Lugano 2.35.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

09:27 Penalty shot missed Ambri-Piotta: Jarventie R.
16:38 Goal Lugano: Henry C. assists: Muller M. 0-1

2nd period2-1

06:02 2 min Lugano: Thomson L. Elbowing
11:05 Goal Lugano: Alatalo S. assists: Tanner R. 0-2
11:53 2 min Ambri-Piotta: Heim A. Tripping
14:56 Goal Ambri-Piotta: Heim A. assists: Muller M., Joly M. 1-2
15:13 2 min Lugano: Maurer M. Tripping
18:32 2 min Ambri-Piotta: Dotti Z. Interference
18:47 Goal SHG Ambri-Piotta: Kodytek P. 2-2

3rd period2-1

01:44 2 min Lugano: Muller M. Interference
11:37 Goal Lugano: Kupari R. assists: Innala J. 2-3
17:12 Goal Ambri-Piotta: Jarventie R. assists: De Luca T., Heim A. 3-3
18:46 2 min Lugano: Kupari R. Boarding
19:13 Goal PPG Ambri-Piotta: Schnarr N. assists: Joly M. 4-3
20:00 2 min Ambri-Piotta: Worge Kreu W. Unsportsmanlike conduct
20:00 2 min Lugano: Sanford Z. Slashing

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Second game in two days for Ambri-Piotta, who played yesterday.
Odds moved: the odds on Ambri-Piotta dropped from 2.12 to 1.83 since they were first published.
In goal: Wuthrich P. for Ambri-Piotta (7-2-1 in the last 10 starts), Schlegel N. for Lugano (5-4-1 in the last 10 starts).
3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Ambri-Piotta.
Save % gap: Ambri-Piotta 92.1%, Lugano 88.8% over their recent games.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (AMB)	2.11	2.30	Drifted
1X2: X (draw)	4.50	4.30	Shortened
1X2: 2 (LUG)	2.70	2.50	Shortened
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap AMB	+1.5	−0.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

National League standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Zurich	18	17	1	0	47	1.306	75	38	+37
2	Ambri-Piotta	18	11	5	2	33	.917	57	53	+4
3	Servette	19	11	6	2	32	.842	49	55	−6
4	Langnau Tigers	19	9	7	3	29	.763	66	56	+10
5	Zug	13	9	3	1	28	1.077	49	27	+22
6	Bern	17	9	5	3	28	.824	46	47	−1
7	Fribourg	18	9	7	2	27	.750	57	44	+13
8	Lausanne	20	9	10	1	26	.650	59	69	−10
9	Ajoie	19	9	8	2	25	.658	58	64	−6
10	Davos	19	8	9	2	24	.632	45	55	−10
11	Biel	18	7	9	2	23	.639	57	60	−3
12	Lugano	18	7	9	2	22	.611	56	62	−6
13	Rapperswil-Jona	19	6	10	3	19	.500	50	69	−19
14	EHC Kloten	19	6	12	1	18	.474	44	69	−25

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
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Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Ambri-Piotta vs Lugano prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details