Arosa vs Thurgau prediction
Chance to win · 30% and 50% in regulation
Simeoni D.Started1-7-2
Neuenschwander E.StartedSV 95.5% · GAA 1.00 · 6-3-1All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 67%Full game
- 1X2WonThurgau1.54Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.51.41Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostArosa +1.51.71Confidence 65%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonThurgau1.31Confidence 62%
- Double chanceWonThurgau or draw1.18Confidence 71%
- Draw no betWonThurgau1.26Confidence 64%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.11Confidence 86%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostThurgau2.06Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU2.51.23Confidence 78%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 3% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Arosa 2–3
Thurgau Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min1–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–11st period1–019%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost2nd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals29%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 0-1, 2-1, 0-1
- Likeliest 2-3 (4%), 3-4 (3%), 4-5 (1%)
Season so far
This seasonArosa
Thurgau
Head-to-head
Arosa 0–5
Thurgau - Feb 17, 2026: Arosa 1, Thurgau 2.
- Dec 21, 2025: Arosa 1, Thurgau 4.
- Nov 23, 2025: Thurgau 6, Arosa 0.
- Oct 26, 2025: Thurgau 4, Arosa 1.
- Sep 20, 2025: Arosa 3, Thurgau 4.
Last five games
Arosa
1-4-0 - Loss, 2–5 at Basel, Oct 10. Odds: Basel 1.15, Arosa 10.00.
- Win, 4–3 against GCK Lions, Oct 6.
- Loss, 1–5 at Chur, Oct 3.
- Loss, 0–5 at Visp, Sep 29.
- Loss, 2–8 against Sierre, Sep 27.
Thurgau
3-2-0 - Win, 2–1 against GCK Lions, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Thurgau 1.64, GCK Lions 3.75.
- Win, 4–2 at Bellinzona Snakes, Oct 6.
- Loss, 2–7 against Sierre, Oct 3.
- Loss, 2–6 at La Chaux-de-Fonds, Sep 29.
- Win, 3–2 at Chur, after a shootout, Sep 22.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 17:04 Goal Arosa: Vlcek T. 1-0
2nd period0-1
- 11:14 Goal Thurgau: Hobi D. assists: Murer F. 1-1
3rd period0-3
- 05:04 Goal Thurgau: Kuhni K. 1-2
- 18:27 Goal ENG Thurgau: Binias D. 1-3
- 19:48 Goal ENG Thurgau: Derungs I. assists: Okabe Z., Marchand L. 1-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Thurgau.
- In goal: Simeoni D. for Arosa (1-7-2 in the last 10 starts), Neuenschwander E. for Thurgau (6-3-1 in the last 10 starts).
- 1-4-0 in the last five for Arosa.
- 5.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
- 9th vs 6th in the Swiss League standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (ARO) | 4.10 | 4.07 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.73 | 4.65 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (THU) | 1.56 | 1.57 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap ARO | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Swiss League standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sierre |
14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 1.321 | 75 | 32 | +43 |
| 2 |  Basel |
14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 51 | 40 | +11 |
| 3 |  Visp |
12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 1.167 | 47 | 18 | +29 |
| 4 |  Olten |
14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | .857 | 60 | 49 | +11 |
| 5 |  La Chaux-de-Fonds |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 23 | .885 | 53 | 40 | +13 |
| 6 | Thurgau |
14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 17 | .607 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 7 |  Chur |
14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 49 | −5 |
| 8 |  Bellinzona Snakes |
14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 13 | .464 | 33 | 48 | −15 |
| 9 | Arosa |
14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9 | .321 | 25 | 73 | −48 |
| 10 |  GCK Lions |
15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 9 | .300 | 33 | 60 | −27 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Arosa host Thurgau in the Swiss League on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.