Belleville Senators vs Toronto Marlies prediction
Chance to win · 28% and 51% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2LostTorontoodds down 2.22Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.39Confidence 71%
- HandicapWonToronto +0.5odds down 1.51Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonTorontoodds down 1.79Confidence 62%
- Double chanceWonToronto or drawodds down 1.47Confidence 70%
- Draw no betPushTorontoodds down 1.79Confidence 64%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.08Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostToronto2.70Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.82Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 4 games; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Belleville 1–4
Toronto Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min4–45%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period2–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (5%), 2-5 (5%), 2-4 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formBelleville Senators
Toronto Marlies
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Belleville 3–2
Toronto - Nov 1, 2026: Belleville Senators 4, Toronto Marlies 1.
- Oct 18, 2026: Toronto Marlies 2, Belleville Senators 4.
- Jan 10, 2026: Belleville Senators 6, Toronto Marlies 3.
- Jan 9, 2026: Toronto Marlies 6, Belleville Senators 1.
- Dec 26, 2025: Toronto Marlies 3, Belleville Senators 2.
Last five games
Belleville
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 4–5 against Laval Rocket, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Belleville 2.42, Laval 2.15.
- Loss, 2–4 against Utica Comets, Oct 11. Odds: Belleville 2.03, Utica 2.94.
- Win, 3–2 at Syracuse Crunch, Oct 10.
- Win, 3–2 against Rochester Americans, after a shootout, Oct 4.
- Loss, 2–5 against Hamilton Hammers, Oct 2.
Toronto
4-1-0 - Win, 5–2 at Hamilton Hammers, Oct 11. Odds: Hamilton 2.47, Toronto 2.27.
- Win, 5–4 at Hamilton Hammers, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Hamilton 2.55, Toronto 2.25.
- Win, 5–3 against Hamilton Hammers, Oct 3.
- Loss, 1–3 at Rochester Americans, Oct 2.
- Win, 4–3 against Chicago Wolves, Jun 19.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-2
- 02:35 Goal Belleville Senators: Pettersson O. 1-0
- 03:37 Goal Belleville Senators: Suzuki R. 2-0
- 04:02 Goal Toronto Marlies: Rybinski H. 2-1
- 17:26 Goal Toronto Marlies: Holinka M. 2-2
2nd period1-1
- 08:38 Goal Toronto Marlies: Lettieri V. 2-3
- 16:41 Goal Belleville Senators: Bakke Olsen E. 3-3
3rd period1-1
- 03:41 Goal Toronto Marlies: Shaw L. 3-4
- 11:46 Goal Belleville Senators: Halttunen K. assists: Stanley H., Bourgault X. 4-4
Overtime0-1
- 02:59 Goal Toronto Marlies: Brisson B. assists: Shaw L., Danford B. 4-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Belleville Senators, who played yesterday.
- 3-game winning streak for Toronto Marlies coming into this game.
- Goal differential gap of 1.6 per game — Belleville Senators −0.8, Toronto Marlies +0.8 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Belleville Senators.
- 6.4 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (BEL) | 2.62 | 2.62 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.33 | 4.33 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 2.14 | 2.14 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap BEL | +0.5 | +0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 | Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 | Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 |  Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Belleville Senators host Toronto Marlies in the AHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.