Bern vs Lugano prediction
Chance to win · 51% and 27% in regulation
Hughes C.StartedSV 90.4% · GAA 2.60 · 4-1-5
Schlegel N.StartedSV 84.2% · GAA 3.80 · 4-6-0All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Full game
- 1X2LostBernodds down 2.10Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU6.5odds up 1.40Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonLugano +1.5odds up 1.36Confidence 65%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonBernodds down 1.69Confidence 62%
- Double chanceWonBern or drawodds down 1.47Confidence 71%
- Draw no betPushBernodds down 1.76Confidence 64%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 85%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostBernodds down 2.60Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5odds up 1.23Confidence 78%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Bern 3–2
Lugano Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min1–14%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period0–018%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 2nd & 3rd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 1-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 2-1 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formBern
Lugano
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Bern 2–3
Lugano - Jan 16, 2026: Bern 1, Lugano 4.
- Dec 7, 2025: Lugano 3, Bern 1.
- Oct 24, 2025: Bern 1, Lugano 4.
- Sep 23, 2025: Lugano 0, Bern 3.
- Feb 14, 2025: Lugano 1, Bern 3.
Last five games
Bern
4-1-0 - Win, 4–1 at Davos, Oct 23. Odds: Davos 1.87, Bern 3.30.
- Loss, 1–3 against Langnau Tigers, Oct 20. Odds: Bern 1.83, Langnau 3.00.
- Win, 3–1 at Langnau Tigers, Oct 17. Odds: Langnau 2.00, Bern 2.70.
- Win, 3–2 against Lausanne, Oct 16. Odds: Bern 2.09, Lausanne 2.92.
- Win, 2–1 at Ambri-Piotta, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Ambri-Piotta 2.42, Bern 2.42.
Lugano
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–5 against EHC Kloten, Oct 23. Odds: Lugano 1.46, Kloten 5.00.
- Win, 5–2 at Servette, Oct 20. Odds: Servette 2.22, Lugano 2.35.
- Loss, 1–6 at Fribourg, Oct 17. Odds: Fribourg 1.78, Lugano 3.05.
- Loss, 2–3 against Davos, Oct 16. Odds: Lugano 2.09, Davos 2.92.
- Win, 4–2 at Biel, Oct 10. Odds: Biel 2.27, Lugano 2.52.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
No goals or penalties.
2nd period1-0
- 04:07 Goal Bern: Alge M. assists: Dionicio R. 1-0
- 10:43 2 min Lugano: Muller M. Unsportsmanlike conduct
3rd period0-1
- 02:34 2 min Bern: Fullemann L. High sticking
- 14:23 Goal Lugano: Innala J. assists: Kupari R. 1-1
- 14:45 2 min Bern: Dionicio R. Tripping
- 15:17 2 min Lugano: Tanner R. Hooking
Overtime1-0
- 03:20 Goal Bern: Merela W. assists: Mitchell I., Abols R. 2-1
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Bern dropped from 1.77 to 1.52 since they were first published.
- In goal: Hughes C. for Bern (4-1-5 in the last 10 starts), Schlegel N. for Lugano (4-6-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Lugano.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Bern.
- Save % gap: Bern 91.9%, Lugano 87.0% over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (BER) | 1.80 | 1.80 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.50 | 4.50 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (LUG) | 3.50 | 3.50 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap BER | −0.5 | −0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
National League standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zurich |
18 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 1.306 | 75 | 38 | +37 |
| 2 |  Ambri-Piotta |
18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33 | .917 | 57 | 53 | +4 |
| 3 |  Servette |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 32 | .842 | 49 | 55 | −6 |
| 4 |  Langnau Tigers |
19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 66 | 56 | +10 |
| 5 |  Zug |
13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 1.077 | 49 | 27 | +22 |
| 6 | Bern |
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 28 | .824 | 46 | 47 | −1 |
| 7 |  Fribourg |
18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | .750 | 57 | 44 | +13 |
| 8 |  Lausanne |
20 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 26 | .650 | 59 | 69 | −10 |
| 9 |  Ajoie |
19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 25 | .658 | 58 | 64 | −6 |
| 10 |  Davos |
19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 11 |  Biel |
18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | .639 | 57 | 60 | −3 |
| 12 | Lugano |
18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 22 | .611 | 56 | 62 | −6 |
| 13 |  Rapperswil-Jona |
19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 50 | 69 | −19 |
| 14 |  EHC Kloten |
19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 18 | .474 | 44 | 69 | −25 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Promotion - Playoffs
- Play Out
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Bern host Lugano in the National League on Sunday, October 25, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.