Buffalo Sabres vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction
Buffalo Sabres 1–, Philadelphia Flyers 3
FT
Puck drop 19:30 ET
1X2 1.751X2 3.65
KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY) · USAKeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
BUF
0
1
0
PHI
2
0
1
60%Buffalo win · 48% in regulationBUF
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
40%Philadelphia win · 29% in regulationPHI
Chance to win · 48% and 29% in regulation
Luukkonen U.StartedSV 86.3% · GAA 3.50 · 3-4-3
Vladar D.StartedSV 88.8% · GAA 3.60 · 1-6-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Flyers +2.5
odds up 1.30
Confidence71%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostSabresodds down 1.87Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostO4.51.37Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonFlyers +2.5odds up 1.30Confidence 71%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostSabres1.50Confidence 61%
- Double chanceLostSabres or drawodds down 1.30Confidence 71%
- Draw no betLostSabresodds down 1.46Confidence 63%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.08Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostSabresodds down 2.37Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.78Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Sabres 4–2
Flyers
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 4
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Buffalo to winTo win
60%
PHI won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min1–34%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 2 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 5-3 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia Flyers
Season recordBuffalo Sabres 4-3-2Philadelphia Flyers 2-6-3
Home / road splitBuffalo Sabres 3-2-0Philadelphia Flyers 0-4-1
StreakBuffalo Sabres L1Philadelphia Flyers W2
RestBuffalo Sabres 3 daysPhiladelphia Flyers 1 day
Goals forBuffalo Sabres 3.0Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
Goals againstBuffalo Sabres 3.8Philadelphia Flyers 3.3
In the standingsBuffalo Sabres 10thPhiladelphia Flyers 14th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameBuffalo Sabres −0.7Philadelphia Flyers −1.7
Goals forBuffalo Sabres 2.9Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
Goals againstBuffalo Sabres 3.6Philadelphia Flyers 3.2
Shots on goalBuffalo Sabres 28.1Philadelphia Flyers 21.1
Shots againstBuffalo Sabres 25.5Philadelphia Flyers 30.8
Shooting %Buffalo Sabres 10.3%Philadelphia Flyers 7.1%
Save %Buffalo Sabres 86.3%Philadelphia Flyers 89.9%
Power-play %Buffalo Sabres 7.5%Philadelphia Flyers 11.1%
Penalty kill %Buffalo Sabres 64.9%Philadelphia Flyers 85.4%
Faceoff %Buffalo Sabres 46.4%Philadelphia Flyers 51.1%
Penalty minutesBuffalo Sabres 8.3Philadelphia Flyers 9.3
HitsBuffalo Sabres 20.0Philadelphia Flyers 24.8
Blocked shotsBuffalo Sabres 14.9Philadelphia Flyers 14.5
Per game · BUF at home, PHI away
Goal differential per gameBuffalo Sabres −1.0Philadelphia Flyers −1.1
Goals forBuffalo Sabres 2.4Philadelphia Flyers 1.6
Goals againstBuffalo Sabres 3.4Philadelphia Flyers 2.7
Shots on goalBuffalo Sabres 28.5Philadelphia Flyers 22.1
Shots againstBuffalo Sabres 24.1Philadelphia Flyers 29.4
Shooting %Buffalo Sabres 8.4%Philadelphia Flyers 7.2%
Save %Buffalo Sabres 86.3%Philadelphia Flyers 91.2%
Power-play %Buffalo Sabres 16.2%Philadelphia Flyers 5.7%
Penalty kill %Buffalo Sabres 70.6%Philadelphia Flyers 96.3%
Faceoff %Buffalo Sabres 45.3%Philadelphia Flyers 49.5%
Penalty minutesBuffalo Sabres 7.9Philadelphia Flyers 14.1
HitsBuffalo Sabres 23.6Philadelphia Flyers 33.7
Blocked shotsBuffalo Sabres 17.4Philadelphia Flyers 13.2
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Sabres 3–2
Flyers
Goals a gameGoals
8.4
BUF 4.2 · PHI 4.2
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
5 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Jan 14, 2026: Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2.
- Dec 18, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3.
- Dec 3, 2025: Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2.
- Apr 17, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4.
- Mar 29, 2025: Philadelphia Flyers 7, Buffalo Sabres 4.
Last five games
Sabres
2-1-2 - Overtime loss, 3–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Canadiens 2.13, Sabres 2.82.
- Win, 5–4 at Toronto Maple Leafs, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.27, Sabres 2.50.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Canadiens 2.06, Sabres 3.09.
- Win, 5–3 against Florida Panthers, Oct 12. Odds: Sabres 2.40, Panthers 2.60.
- Loss, 1–4 against Utah Mammoth, Oct 10. Odds: Sabres 2.25, Mammoth 2.65.
Flyers
2-2-1 - Win, 3–2 against Colorado Avalanche, Oct 19. Odds: Flyers 4.25, Avalanche 1.62.
- Win, 3–1 against Ottawa Senators, Oct 17. Odds: Flyers 3.08, Senators 2.03.
- Loss, 1–2 at Detroit Red Wings, Oct 15. Odds: Red Wings 2.10, Flyers 2.85.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Seattle Kraken, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Flyers 2.41, Kraken 2.49.
- Loss, 1–4 against Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 11. Odds: Flyers 3.94, Hurricanes 1.79.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-2
- 01:56 2 min Philadelphia Flyers: Benoit S. Tripping
- 14:49 Goal Philadelphia Flyers: Knuble C. assists: Bonk O., Barkey D. 0-1
- 16:30 2 min Philadelphia Flyers: Seeler N. Roughing
- 17:51 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Ostlund N. Slashing
- 19:17 Goal PPG Philadelphia Flyers: Zegras T. assists: Michkov M., Drysdale J. 0-2
- 19:59 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Quinn J. Tripping
2nd period1-0
- 14:45 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Zucker J. Slashing
- 15:32 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Power O. High sticking
- 17:38 2 min Philadelphia Flyers: Sanheim T. High sticking
- 19:25 Goal PPG Buffalo Sabres: Zucker J. assists: Quinn J., Ostlund N. 1-2
3rd period0-1
- 03:03 Goal Philadelphia Flyers: Knuble C. assists: Bonk O. 1-3
- 15:13 5 min Philadelphia Flyers: McDonald H. Fighting
- 15:13 5 min Buffalo Sabres: Samuelsson M. Fighting
- 15:13 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Samuelsson M. Instigator penalty
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 3 days off for Buffalo Sabres, 1 for Philadelphia Flyers.
- 0-4-1 away for Philadelphia Flyers this season.
- In goal: Luukkonen U. for Buffalo Sabres (3-4-3 in the last 10 starts), Vladar D. for Philadelphia Flyers (1-6-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.0 per game — Buffalo Sabres −0.7, Philadelphia Flyers −1.7 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Buffalo Sabres.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (BUF) | 1.75 | 1.75 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.05 | 4.05 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (PHI) | 3.65 | 3.65 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap BUF | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 |  Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 | Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Buffalo Sabres host Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.