Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Handicap

Sabres +1.5 1.41

Confidence67%

All predictions

9 picks · Average confidence 62%

Full game

1X2Lightningodds down 2.22Confidence 51%
Over/UnderU7.5odds up 1.38Confidence 70%
Best tip of the game: HandicapSabres +1.5odds up 1.41Confidence 67%
Winner (incl. OT)Lightningodds up 1.76Confidence 52%
Double chanceLightning or drawodds down 1.42Confidence 66%
Draw no betLightningodds up 1.75Confidence 52%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)Yes1.06Confidence 89%

1st period

1st period 1X2Lightning2.60Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderO1.51.67Confidence 56%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Sabres 23

Lightning

Predicted score

Total goalsTotal 5 Line 6.0 · Under

Draw after 60 minDraw 23%

Tampa Bay to winTo win 52% 40% in regulation

Score details

Correct score2–33%chance
1st period correct score0–27%chance
Highest scoring period3rd period30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 2-3
By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
Likeliest 2-3 (3%), 3-4 (2%), 1-2 (2%)

Predicted team stats

The brighter bar is the bigger figure

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record8-6-311-4-2

Home / road split4-5-03-4-2

StreakL1L1

Rest2 days2 days

Goals for2.93.7

Goals against3.43.1

In the standings6th3rd

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game0.0+0.9

Goals for3.14.2

Goals against3.13.3

Shots on goal30.129.4

Shots against29.224.6

Shooting %10.3%14.3%

Save %89.4%87.0%

Power-play %14.7%24.4%

Penalty kill %79.1%74.3%

Faceoff %43.7%52.4%

Penalty minutes10.07.8

Blocked shots15.016.7

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Sabres 32

Lightning

Buffalo won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 9.4 BUF 5.0 · TBL 4.4

Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0 4 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 1 of 5 1 in overtime

Apr 6, 2026: Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
Mar 8, 2026: Buffalo Sabres 8, Tampa Bay Lightning 7.
Feb 28, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 6.
Feb 3, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Buffalo Sabres 3, after overtime.
Apr 13, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Buffalo Sabres 4.

Last five games

Sabres 3-2-0

Loss, 1–4 against Vegas Golden Knights, Nov 8. Odds: Sabres 2.45, Golden Knights 2.30.
Win, 5–2 against Columbus Blue Jackets, Nov 6. Odds: Sabres 1.83, Blue Jackets 3.50.
Loss, 1–2 against Ottawa Senators, Nov 4. Odds: Sabres 2.10, Senators 2.75.
Win, 3–2 at Los Angeles Kings, Oct 31. Odds: Kings 2.80, Sabres 2.10.
Win, 7–6 at Anaheim Ducks, Oct 29. Odds: Ducks 2.94, Sabres 2.05.

Lightning 3-1-1

Loss, 3–4 at Winnipeg Jets, Nov 8. Odds: Jets 3.25, Lightning 1.91.
Win, 4–3 at Minnesota Wild, after overtime, Nov 7. Odds: Wild 2.85, Lightning 2.05.
Win, 4–1 against Chicago Blackhawks, Nov 5. Odds: Lightning 1.30, Blackhawks 7.50.
Win, 4–2 against Detroit Red Wings, Nov 3. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Red Wings 4.90.
Overtime loss, 4–5 at Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Predators 3.30, Lightning 1.86.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Key insights

3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Buffalo Sabres.
Save % gap: Buffalo Sabres 89.4%, Tampa Bay Lightning 87.0% over their recent games.
9.4 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
6th vs 3rd in the NHL standings.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (BUF)	2.70	2.70	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.20	4.20	No change
1X2: 2 (TBL)	2.15	2.15	No change
Over/Under line	6	6	No change
Handicap BUF	+1.5	+1.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

NHL standings

Regular Season · Atlantic Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Boston Bruins	18	13	4	1	27	.750	68	41	+27
2	Montreal Canadiens	18	11	3	4	26	.722	62	55	+7
3	Tampa Bay Lightning	17	11	4	2	24	.706	63	53	+10
4	Ottawa Senators	19	11	6	2	24	.632	60	57	+3
5	Florida Panthers	19	10	7	2	22	.579	60	56	+4
6	Buffalo Sabres	17	8	6	3	19	.559	50	57	−7
7	Toronto Maple Leafs	20	8	10	2	18	.450	67	70	−3
8	Detroit Red Wings	19	7	9	3	17	.447	51	59	−8

Playoffs

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction