Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Calgary Flames 5–, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
FT
Puck drop 20:30 ET
1X2 2.851X2 2.05
Scotiabank Saddledome (Calgary, AB) · USAScotiabank Saddledome (Calgary, AB)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
CGY
2
1
2
TOR
0
1
1
41%Calgary win · 31% in regulationCGY
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
59%Toronto win · 47% in regulationTOR
Chance to win · 31% and 47% in regulation
Cooley D.StartedSV 89.3% · GAA 3.10 · 4-4-2
Bobrovsky S.StartedSV 89.6% · GAA 2.90 · 4-4-2
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Flames +2.5
odds down 1.28
Confidence71%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2LostMaple Leafsodds up 1.98Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds down 1.40Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonFlames +2.5odds down 1.28Confidence 71%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostMaple Leafsodds up 1.62Confidence 61%
- Double chanceLostMaple Leafs or drawodds up 1.32Confidence 71%
- Draw no betLostMaple Leafsodds up 1.56Confidence 62%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.05Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMaple Leafsodds up 2.45Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.64Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Flames 2–4
Maple Leafs
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Decided in regulation
Toronto to winTo win
59%
CGY won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–4After 60 min5–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period2–08%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-4
- By period 0-2, 1-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 2-4 (4%), 2-3 (3%), 1-3 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Calgary Flames
Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames
Toronto Maple Leafs
Season recordCalgary Flames 4-6-0Toronto Maple Leafs 7-4-2
Home / road splitCalgary Flames 3-3-0Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1-1
StreakCalgary Flames W3Toronto Maple Leafs W4
RestCalgary Flames 1 dayToronto Maple Leafs 1 day
Goals forCalgary Flames 2.3Toronto Maple Leafs 3.8
Goals againstCalgary Flames 3.9Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2
In the standingsCalgary Flames 5thToronto Maple Leafs 7th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameCalgary Flames −1.6Toronto Maple Leafs +1.1
Goals forCalgary Flames 2.3Toronto Maple Leafs 4.4
Goals againstCalgary Flames 3.9Toronto Maple Leafs 3.3
Shots on goalCalgary Flames 28.7Toronto Maple Leafs 29.0
Shots againstCalgary Flames 30.0Toronto Maple Leafs 30.5
Shooting %Calgary Flames 8.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 15.2%
Save %Calgary Flames 87.3%Toronto Maple Leafs 89.5%
Power-play %Calgary Flames 21.1%Toronto Maple Leafs 30.8%
Penalty kill %Calgary Flames 89.1%Toronto Maple Leafs 95.1%
Faceoff %Calgary Flames 50.2%Toronto Maple Leafs 53.3%
Penalty minutesCalgary Flames 12.8Toronto Maple Leafs 9.9
HitsCalgary Flames 22.9Toronto Maple Leafs 17.9
Blocked shotsCalgary Flames 16.6Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2
Per game · CGY at home, TOR away
Goal differential per gameCalgary Flames +0.1Toronto Maple Leafs +0.4
Goals forCalgary Flames 3.0Toronto Maple Leafs 4.2
Goals againstCalgary Flames 2.9Toronto Maple Leafs 3.8
Shots on goalCalgary Flames 26.1Toronto Maple Leafs 22.9
Shots againstCalgary Flames 31.9Toronto Maple Leafs 34.8
Shooting %Calgary Flames 11.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 18.3%
Save %Calgary Flames 91.2%Toronto Maple Leafs 89.7%
Power-play %Calgary Flames 23.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 30.8%
Penalty kill %Calgary Flames 91.9%Toronto Maple Leafs 88.1%
Faceoff %Calgary Flames 50.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 48.5%
Penalty minutesCalgary Flames 8.3Toronto Maple Leafs 17.5
HitsCalgary Flames 18.5Toronto Maple Leafs 20.9
Blocked shotsCalgary Flames 13.5Toronto Maple Leafs 10.9
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Flames 0–4
Maple Leafs
Goals a gameGoals
7.5
CGY 2.5 · TOR 5.0
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
3 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 4
All decided in regulation
- Feb 2, 2026: Calgary Flames 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
- Oct 28, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 3.
- Mar 17, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Calgary Flames 2.
- Feb 4, 2025: Calgary Flames 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6.
Last five games
Flames
4-1-0 - Win, 4–1 against Detroit Red Wings, Oct 24. Odds: Flames 2.75, Red Wings 2.15.
- Win, 2–1 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 22. Odds: Flames 4.00, Wild 1.67.
- Win, 3–2 against Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 18. Odds: Flames 3.90, Hurricanes 1.67.
- Loss, 2–6 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 15. Odds: Golden Knights 1.64, Flames 4.72.
- Win, 4–2 at Anaheim Ducks, Oct 13. Odds: Ducks 1.93, Flames 3.15.
Maple Leafs
4-1-0 - Win, 7–2 at Edmonton Oilers, Oct 24. Odds: Oilers 1.96, Maple Leafs 3.00.
- Win, 5–4 against New York Rangers, Oct 22. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.45, Rangers 2.30.
- Win, 6–2 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 20. Odds: Blue Jackets 1.91, Maple Leafs 3.05.
- Win, 3–1 against San Jose Sharks, Oct 19. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.01, Sharks 3.00.
- Loss, 1–4 against New York Islanders, Oct 17. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.17, Islanders 2.77.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-0
- 04:56 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Mermis D. Tripping
- 10:05 Goal Calgary Flames: Gridin M. assists: Pospisil M., Nemec S. 1-0
- 11:50 Goal Calgary Flames: Backlund M. assists: Coronato M., Farabee J. 2-0
- 12:09 2 min Calgary Flames: Cooley D. Delay of game
- 16:48 5 min Calgary Flames: Middleton J. Fighting
- 16:48 5 min Toronto Maple Leafs: MacEwen Z. Fighting
- 19:42 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. Roughing
- 19:42 2 min Calgary Flames: Pospisil M. Roughing
2nd period1-1
- 00:25 Goal PPG Calgary Flames: Gridin M. assists: Parekh Z., Cooley D. 3-0
- 05:45 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Bobrovsky S. Tripping
- 12:54 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. assists: Stecher T., Rielly M. 3-1
- 15:40 2 min Calgary Flames: Backlund M. Slashing
3rd period2-1
- 03:15 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander W. High sticking
- 06:06 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander W. assists: Roslovic J., Matthews A. 3-2
- 07:04 2 min Calgary Flames: Othmann B. Holding
- 07:04 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews A. Delay of game
- 12:21 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews A. High sticking
- 18:35 Goal ENG Calgary Flames: Farabee J. assists: Coronato M., Kuznetsov Y. 4-2
- 19:21 Goal ENG Calgary Flames: Pospisil M. assists: Gridin M., Nemec S. 5-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Toronto Maple Leafs coming into this game.
- 3-game winning streak for Calgary Flames coming into this game.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Toronto Maple Leafs.
- In goal: Cooley D. for Calgary Flames (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts), Bobrovsky S. for Toronto Maple Leafs (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 2.7 per game — Calgary Flames −1.6, Toronto Maple Leafs +1.1 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (CGY) | 2.85 | 2.85 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 2.05 | 2.05 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap CGY | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 |  Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 | Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Calgary Flames host Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Monday, October 26, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.