Cardiff vs Belfast prediction
Chance to win · 35% and 42% in regulation
Stoever C.StartedSV 94.9% · GAA 1.50 · 10-0-0
Whistle J.StartedSV 94.4% · GAA 1.25 · 8-0-2All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostBelfast3.15Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU6.51.35Confidence 72%
- HandicapLostBelfast +1.51.50Confidence 71%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostBelfast2.35Confidence 54%
- Double chanceLostBelfast or draw1.75Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostBelfast2.42Confidence 53%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.10Confidence 84%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDraw2.50Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostU2.5Confidence 78%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Cardiff 1–4
Belfast Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min5–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–11st period1–213%chance
- Highest scoring periodWonTieMost goalsTie · 1st & 3rd27%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 1-1, 0-1, 0-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (4%), 2-3 (4%), 1-2 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 8+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formCardiff
Belfast
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Cardiff 2–3
Belfast - Oct 28, 2026: Cardiff 1, Belfast 4.
- Mar 8, 2026: Belfast 5, Cardiff 4.
- Mar 7, 2026: Belfast 2, Cardiff 5.
- Feb 20, 2026: Cardiff 1, Belfast 2.
- Dec 6, 2025: Cardiff 2, Belfast 1.
Last five games
Cardiff
4-1-0 - Win, 3–0 against Dundee, Oct 10. Odds: Cardiff 1.10, Dundee 12.00.
- Win, 2–1 against Glasgow, Oct 4.
- Win, 2–0 against Manchester, Oct 3.
- Loss, 1–3 at Sheffield, Sep 26.
- Win, 5–3 against Nottingham, Sep 25.
Belfast
4-1-0 - Win, 1–0 at Coventry, Oct 10. Odds: Coventry 2.95, Belfast 1.76.
- Win, 4–0 against Dundee, Oct 4.
- Win, 3–1 at Dundee, Oct 2.
- Loss, 1–4 at Glasgow, Sep 27.
- Win, 5–2 against Fife, Sep 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 04:08 Goal Cardiff: MacDonald J. assists: Oligny J., Estes B. 1-0
- 07:35 Goal Belfast: Gaudet J. assists: Pearson K. 1-1
- 14:26 Goal PPG Belfast: Goodwin D. assists: Conway S., Lee M. 1-2
2nd period1-0
- 11:38 Goal PPG Cardiff: Brandt R. assists: Welsh N., Estes B. 2-2
3rd period3-0
- 04:38 Goal Cardiff: Barrow R. assists: Emmerdahl J., Harewood B. 3-2
- 11:01 Goal Cardiff: MacDonald J. assists: Martin J., Richardson M. 4-2
- 19:01 Goal ENG Cardiff: Brandt R. assists: Estes B. 5-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Cardiff and Belfast played yesterday.
- 3-game winning streak for Cardiff coming into this game.
- 3-game winning streak for Belfast coming into this game.
- In goal: Stoever C. for Cardiff (10-0-0 in the last 10 starts), Whistle J. for Belfast (8-0-2 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.8 per game — Cardiff +0.6, Belfast +2.4 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (CAR) | 1.87 | 1.87 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.00 | 4.00 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (BEL) | 3.20 | 3.20 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap CAR | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Elite League standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff |
9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .833 | 27 | 15 | +12 |
| 2 | Belfast |
8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .875 | 28 | 16 | +12 |
| 3 |  Sheffield |
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | .650 | 34 | 26 | +8 |
| 4 |  Coventry |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | .750 | 26 | 15 | +11 |
| 5 |  Manchester |
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .550 | 25 | 26 | −1 |
| 6 |  Guildford |
9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .500 | 32 | 39 | −7 |
| 7 |  Fife |
8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | .438 | 25 | 26 | −1 |
| 8 |  Nottingham |
6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 15 | 17 | −2 |
| 9 |  Dundee |
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | .286 | 14 | 28 | −14 |
| 10 |  Glasgow |
9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | .111 | 12 | 30 | −18 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Cardiff host Belfast in the Elite League on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.