Cardiff vs Coventry prediction
Chance to win · 55% and 25% in regulation
Stoever C.StartedSV 94.5% · GAA 1.60 · 10-0-0
Fitzpatrick E.StartedSV 88.3% · GAA 3.20 · 4-6-0All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostCardiff1.60Confidence 56%
- Over/UnderWonO5.51.59Confidence 55%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonCoventry +1.51.75Confidence 62%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonCardiff1.35Confidence 64%
- Double chanceWonCardiff or draw1.19Confidence 71%
- Draw no betPushCardiff1.29Confidence 67%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesConfidence 86%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostCardiff2.09Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.73Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Cardiff 4–3
Coventry Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–3After 60 min4–43%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–29%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 5 goals27%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-3
- By period 2-0, 1-1, 1-2
- Likeliest 4-3 (3%), 5-4 (1%), 6-5 (0%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 10+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formCardiff
Coventry
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Cardiff 3–2
Coventry - Sep 13, 2026: Coventry 3, Cardiff 2.
- Apr 12, 2026: Cardiff 4, Coventry 1.
- Apr 11, 2026: Coventry 1, Cardiff 2.
- Apr 4, 2026: Cardiff 2, Coventry 1.
- Mar 29, 2026: Coventry 5, Cardiff 4.
Last five games
Cardiff
4-1-0 - Win, 5–2 against Belfast, Oct 11. Odds: Cardiff 1.87, Belfast 3.20.
- Win, 3–0 against Dundee, Oct 10. Odds: Cardiff 1.10, Dundee 12.00.
- Win, 2–1 against Glasgow, Oct 4.
- Win, 2–0 against Manchester, Oct 3.
- Loss, 1–3 at Sheffield, Sep 26.
Coventry
3-2-0 - Win, 8–2 against Dundee, Oct 11. Odds: Coventry 1.38, Dundee 5.71.
- Loss, 0–1 against Belfast, Oct 10. Odds: Coventry 2.95, Belfast 1.76.
- Win, 3–1 at Fife, Oct 7.
- Win, 3–1 against Manchester, Oct 4.
- Loss, 3–4 at Nottingham, Oct 3.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 02:52 Goal Cardiff: Estes B. assists: Brandt R., Kontos K. 1-0
- 08:34 Goal Coventry: Boysen W. assists: Gleason M., Ness G. 1-1
- 09:27 Goal PPG Coventry: Richardson R. assists: Boysen W., Ezman J. 1-2
2nd period3-2
- 04:20 Goal Coventry: Csollak M. 1-3
- 06:17 Goal Cardiff: Oligny J. assists: Olischefski K., Martin J. 2-3
- 06:41 Goal Coventry: Ness G. assists: Gleason M., Boysen W. 2-4
- 17:23 Goal Cardiff: Barrow R. assists: Kontos K., Welsh N. 3-4
- 19:30 Goal PPG Cardiff: Martin J. assists: Kontos K., Fournier G. 4-4
3rd period0-0
No goals or penalties.
Overtime1-0
- 01:20 Goal Cardiff: Welsh N. assists: Barrow R., Stoever C. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Cardiff coming into this game.
- In goal: Stoever C. for Cardiff (10-0-0 in the last 10 starts), Fitzpatrick E. for Coventry (4-6-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Cardiff.
- Save % gap: Cardiff 94.0%, Coventry 92.0% over their recent games.
- 5.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (CAR) | 1.60 | 1.63 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.75 | 4.60 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (COV) | 3.75 | 3.73 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap CAR | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Challenge Cup standings
Regular Season · Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sheffield |
10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | .700 | 34 | 23 | +11 |
| 2 | Cardiff |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | .650 | 29 | 27 | +2 |
| 3 |  Guildford |
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | .600 | 34 | 31 | +3 |
| 4 |  Nottingham |
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | .600 | 28 | 30 | −2 |
| 5 | Coventry |
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 | .450 | 25 | 33 | −8 |
| 6 |  Manchester |
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | .450 | 28 | 34 | −6 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Cardiff host Coventry in the Challenge Cup on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.