Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Colorado Avalanche 6–, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
FT
Puck drop 21:00 ET
1X2 2.151X2 2.70
Ball Arena (Denver, CO) · USABall Arena (Denver, CO)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
COL
2
2
2
TBL
0
2
1
55%Colorado win · 44% in regulationCOL
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
45%Tampa Bay win · 33% in regulationTBL
Chance to win · 44% and 33% in regulation
Blackwood M.StartedSV 89.6% · GAA 2.60 · 6-4-0
Vasilevski A.StartedSV 88.7% · GAA 2.40 · 6-4-0
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Won
Avalanche or draw
odds up 1.42
Confidence68%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonAvalanche2.27Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.51.33Confidence 70%
- HandicapLostLightning +1.51.38Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonAvalanche1.78Confidence 57%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonAvalanche or drawodds up 1.42Confidence 68%
- Draw no betWonAvalanche1.78Confidence 58%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonAvalanche2.65Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.72Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 4% since they opened; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Avalanche 3–2
Lightning
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Colorado to winTo win
55%
COL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min6–33%chance
- 1st period correct scoreWon2–01st period2–07%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Colorado Avalanche
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche
Tampa Bay Lightning
Season recordColorado Avalanche 5-4-1Tampa Bay Lightning 7-2-0
Home / road splitColorado Avalanche 3-1-1Tampa Bay Lightning 2-2-0
StreakColorado Avalanche L2Tampa Bay Lightning W3
RestColorado Avalanche 2 daysTampa Bay Lightning 2 days
Goals forColorado Avalanche 4.1Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4
Goals againstColorado Avalanche 3.1Tampa Bay Lightning 2.6
In the standingsColorado Avalanche 2ndTampa Bay Lightning 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameColorado Avalanche +1.1Tampa Bay Lightning +0.7
Goals forColorado Avalanche 4.1Tampa Bay Lightning 3.2
Goals againstColorado Avalanche 3.0Tampa Bay Lightning 2.5
Shots on goalColorado Avalanche 30.5Tampa Bay Lightning 29.5
Shots againstColorado Avalanche 27.0Tampa Bay Lightning 22.5
Shooting %Colorado Avalanche 13.4%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.8%
Save %Colorado Avalanche 89.6%Tampa Bay Lightning 89.8%
Power-play %Colorado Avalanche 15.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 11.6%
Penalty kill %Colorado Avalanche 86.7%Tampa Bay Lightning 85.3%
Faceoff %Colorado Avalanche 47.6%Tampa Bay Lightning 48.6%
Penalty minutesColorado Avalanche 8.2Tampa Bay Lightning 8.0
HitsColorado Avalanche 17.0Tampa Bay Lightning 21.9
Blocked shotsColorado Avalanche 16.7Tampa Bay Lightning 16.6
Per game · COL at home, TBL away
Goal differential per gameColorado Avalanche +1.2Tampa Bay Lightning −0.4
Goals forColorado Avalanche 4.5Tampa Bay Lightning 2.4
Goals againstColorado Avalanche 3.3Tampa Bay Lightning 2.8
Shots on goalColorado Avalanche 32.6Tampa Bay Lightning 23.7
Shots againstColorado Avalanche 27.0Tampa Bay Lightning 25.3
Shooting %Colorado Avalanche 13.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.1%
Save %Colorado Avalanche 88.9%Tampa Bay Lightning 90.1%
Power-play %Colorado Avalanche 22.5%Tampa Bay Lightning 6.6%
Penalty kill %Colorado Avalanche 90.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 91.2%
Faceoff %Colorado Avalanche 50.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 46.8%
Penalty minutesColorado Avalanche 6.5Tampa Bay Lightning 15.7
HitsColorado Avalanche 22.8Tampa Bay Lightning 25.0
Blocked shotsColorado Avalanche 17.5Tampa Bay Lightning 16.0
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Avalanche 1–3
Lightning
Goals a gameGoals
7.0
COL 2.3 · TBL 4.8
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 4
All decided in regulation
- Jan 6, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 2.
- Nov 4, 2025: Colorado Avalanche 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
- Nov 25, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Colorado Avalanche 2.
- Oct 30, 2024: Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.
Last five games
Avalanche
2-2-1 - Loss, 3–4 at New Jersey Devils, Oct 20. Odds: Devils 2.32, Avalanche 2.42.
- Loss, 2–3 at Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 19. Odds: Flyers 4.25, Avalanche 1.62.
- Win, 5–2 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 16. Odds: Avalanche 1.75, Penguins 3.50.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Dallas Stars, after a shootout, Oct 14. Odds: Avalanche 2.04, Stars 3.18.
- Win, 3–2 at Dallas Stars, Oct 13. Odds: Stars 2.43, Avalanche 2.60.
Lightning
4-1-0 - Win, 6–2 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 20. Odds: Golden Knights 2.40, Lightning 2.40.
- Win, 4–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 17. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Canucks 5.30.
- Win, 4–3 against Seattle Kraken, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
- Loss, 1–4 at New York Rangers, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
- Win, 5–3 at New York Islanders, Oct 10. Odds: Islanders 2.75, Lightning 2.20.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-0
- 01:08 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Toews D. assists: Necas M., MacKinnon N. 1-0
- 05:09 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. Tripping
- 05:52 Goal PPG Colorado Avalanche: Kadri N. assists: Hughes T., MacKinnon N. 2-0
- 11:27 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. Unsportsmanlike conduct
2nd period2-2
- 00:24 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Svechkov F. assists: Schwartz J. 3-0
- 03:04 2 min Colorado Avalanche: O'Connor L. Interference
- 08:00 2 min Colorado Avalanche: Makar T. Tripping
- 08:00 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: James D. Roughing
- 08:00 2 min Colorado Avalanche: Malinski S. Roughing
- 08:13 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. assists: D'Astous C., Point B. 3-1
- 10:49 2 min Colorado Avalanche: Lehkonen A. Tripping
- 13:57 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Lehkonen A. assists: MacKinnon N., Toews D. 4-1
- 17:17 2 min Colorado Avalanche: — Too many men on the ice
- 19:17 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. assists: Point B., Hagel B. 4-2
- 19:17 2 min Colorado Avalanche: — Delay of game
3rd period2-1
- 04:18 Goal Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon N. assists: Lehkonen A., Necas M. 5-2
- 04:59 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. Cross checking
- 10:58 2 min Colorado Avalanche: Toews D. Holding
- 15:13 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. assists: Goncalves G., Crozier M. 5-3
- 17:19 Goal ENG Colorado Avalanche: Necas M. assists: Landeskog G. 6-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Tampa Bay Lightning coming into this game.
- In goal: Blackwood M. for Colorado Avalanche (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Vasilevski A. for Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
- +1.4 goals at home — Colorado Avalanche averaged 4.8 at home and 3.4 away this season.
- 7.0 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (COL) | 2.15 | 2.15 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.10 | 4.20 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (TBL) | 2.70 | 2.70 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap COL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Colorado Avalanche host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Friday, October 23, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.