Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Dallas Stars 2–, Montreal Canadiens 5
FT
Puck drop 20:00 ET
1X2 1.961X2 3.19
American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX) · USAAmerican Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
DAL
1
1
0
MTL
3
1
1
55%Dallas win · 43% in regulationDAL
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
45%Montreal win · 34% in regulationMTL
Chance to win · 43% and 34% in regulation
Oettinger J.StartedSV 92.2% · GAA 1.60 · 6-3-1
Dobes J.StartedSV 86.8% · GAA 4.00 · 2-5-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Canadiens +2.5
odds down 1.30
Confidence72%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostStarsodds up 1.88Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.37Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonCanadiens +2.5odds down 1.30Confidence 72%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostStarsodds up 1.53Confidence 56%
- Double chanceLostStars or draw1.29Confidence 68%
- Draw no betLostStarsodds up 1.47Confidence 58%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostStars2.42Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.78Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Stars 4–2
Canadiens
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Dallas to winTo win
55%
MTL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min2–54%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–38%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Dallas Stars
Montreal Canadiens
Dallas Stars
Montreal Canadiens
Season recordDallas Stars 7-4-1Montreal Canadiens 7-3-2
Home / road splitDallas Stars 4-3-0Montreal Canadiens 4-1-1
StreakDallas Stars L1Montreal Canadiens W3
RestDallas Stars 1 dayMontreal Canadiens 1 day
Goals forDallas Stars 2.8Montreal Canadiens 3.2
Goals againstDallas Stars 2.1Montreal Canadiens 3.0
In the standingsDallas Stars 4thMontreal Canadiens 2nd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameDallas Stars +1.3Montreal Canadiens 0.0
Goals forDallas Stars 3.1Montreal Canadiens 2.8
Goals againstDallas Stars 1.8Montreal Canadiens 2.8
Shots on goalDallas Stars 26.8Montreal Canadiens 28.7
Shots againstDallas Stars 21.7Montreal Canadiens 27.8
Shooting %Dallas Stars 11.6%Montreal Canadiens 9.8%
Save %Dallas Stars 91.7%Montreal Canadiens 91.0%
Power-play %Dallas Stars 16.7%Montreal Canadiens 10.3%
Penalty kill %Dallas Stars 97.6%Montreal Canadiens 88.2%
Faceoff %Dallas Stars 56.1%Montreal Canadiens 51.4%
Penalty minutesDallas Stars 10.1Montreal Canadiens 11.0
HitsDallas Stars 19.5Montreal Canadiens 20.0
Blocked shotsDallas Stars 14.3Montreal Canadiens 14.1
Per game · DAL at home, MTL away
Goal differential per gameDallas Stars −0.4Montreal Canadiens +0.4
Goals forDallas Stars 2.7Montreal Canadiens 3.2
Goals againstDallas Stars 3.1Montreal Canadiens 2.8
Shots on goalDallas Stars 27.7Montreal Canadiens 23.0
Shots againstDallas Stars 23.1Montreal Canadiens 30.6
Shooting %Dallas Stars 9.7%Montreal Canadiens 13.9%
Save %Dallas Stars 88.3%Montreal Canadiens 91.2%
Power-play %Dallas Stars 16.7%Montreal Canadiens 10.0%
Penalty kill %Dallas Stars 91.5%Montreal Canadiens 90.2%
Faceoff %Dallas Stars 53.9%Montreal Canadiens 51.6%
Penalty minutesDallas Stars 12.2Montreal Canadiens 8.2
HitsDallas Stars 21.1Montreal Canadiens 21.8
Blocked shotsDallas Stars 16.2Montreal Canadiens 14.0
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Stars 2–2
Canadiens
Goals a gameGoals
5.3
DAL 3.3 · MTL 2.0
Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
2 of 4
1 in overtime · 1 in a shootout
- Jan 4, 2026: Dallas Stars 3, Montreal Canadiens 4, after overtime.
- Nov 13, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 0, Dallas Stars 7.
- Jan 16, 2025: Dallas Stars 1, Montreal Canadiens 3.
- Jan 11, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 1, Dallas Stars 2, after a shootout.
Last five games
Stars
4-1-0 - Loss, 1–5 against New Jersey Devils, Oct 27. Odds: Stars 2.25, Devils 2.65.
- Win, 6–3 against New York Islanders, Oct 25. Odds: Stars 1.93, Islanders 3.34.
- Win, 3–2 against Winnipeg Jets, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: Stars 1.70, Jets 4.00.
- Win, 3–2 against Boston Bruins, after overtime, Oct 20. Odds: Stars 1.86, Bruins 3.40.
- Win, 4–0 at Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 17. Odds: Blackhawks 3.66, Stars 1.80.
Canadiens
4-0-1 - Win, 2–0 at St. Louis Blues, Oct 27. Odds: Blues 2.60, Canadiens 2.25.
- Win, 2–1 at Winnipeg Jets, Oct 25. Odds: Jets 2.55, Canadiens 2.30.
- Win, 4–1 at Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 23. Odds: Blackhawks 3.20, Canadiens 1.91.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against San Jose Sharks, after overtime, Oct 20. Odds: Canadiens 1.70, Sharks 3.70.
- Win, 4–3 against Buffalo Sabres, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Canadiens 2.13, Sabres 2.82.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-3
- 07:24 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Caufield C. assists: Danault P., Carrier A. 0-1
- 08:35 2 min Dallas Stars: Rantanen M. Tripping
- 11:54 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. Holding
- 12:53 Goal PPG Dallas Stars: Johnston W. assists: Rantanen M., Heiskanen M. 1-1
- 16:05 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Newhook A. assists: Dobson N., Hutson L. 1-2
- 16:32 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Caufield C. assists: Engstrom A., Slafkovsky J. 1-3
2nd period1-1
- 04:05 2 min Dallas Stars: Steel S. Tripping
- 06:11 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Newhook A. assists: Kreider C., Dobson N. 1-4
- 08:52 Goal Dallas Stars: Benn Ja. assists: Rantanen M., Johnston W. 2-4
- 12:10 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Carrier A. Holding the stick
3rd period0-1
- 05:41 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Xhekaj A. Interference
- 08:46 2 min Dallas Stars: Harley T. Interference
- 13:47 2 min Dallas Stars: Bichsel L. Slashing
- 19:12 Goal ENG Montreal Canadiens: Danault P. assists: Evans J. 2-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Montreal Canadiens coming into this game.
- In goal: Oettinger J. for Dallas Stars (6-3-1 in the last 10 starts), Dobes J. for Montreal Canadiens (2-5-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.3 per game — Dallas Stars +1.3, Montreal Canadiens 0.0 over their recent games.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Dallas Stars.
- Head-to-head level at 2-2 after the last 4 meetings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (DAL) | 1.96 | 1.96 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.20 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (MTL) | 3.19 | 3.19 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap DAL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Dallas Stars host Montreal Canadiens in the NHL on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.