Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Edmonton Oilers 2–, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 odds up 1.961X2 odds down 3.00
Rogers Place (Edmonton, AB) · USARogers Place (Edmonton, AB)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
EDM
0
1
1
TOR
1
2
4
61%Edmonton win · 50% in regulationEDM
Overtime or shootout · 21%OT / SO 21%
39%Toronto win · 29% in regulationTOR
Chance to win · 50% and 29% in regulation
Jarry T.StartedSV 87.2% · GAA 3.20 · 6-1-3
Stolarz A.StartedSV 89.6% · GAA 2.80 · 7-3-0
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Maple Leafs +2.5
odds down 1.39
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2LostOilersodds up 1.78Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.5odds up 1.48Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonMaple Leafs +2.5odds down 1.39Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostOilersodds up 1.47Confidence 62%
- Double chanceLostOilers or drawodds up 1.27Confidence 71%
- Draw no betLostOilersodds up 1.42Confidence 64%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.05Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostOilersodds up 2.25Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.59Confidence 58%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Oilers 4–2
Maple Leafs
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
21%
Decided in regulation
Edmonton to winTo win
61%
TOR won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min2–74%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–18%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 5 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 3-1 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Season recordEdmonton Oilers 8-1-1Toronto Maple Leafs 6-4-2
Home / road splitEdmonton Oilers 3-1-1Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1-1
StreakEdmonton Oilers W3Toronto Maple Leafs W3
RestEdmonton Oilers 1 dayToronto Maple Leafs 1 day
Goals forEdmonton Oilers 4.7Toronto Maple Leafs 3.6
Goals againstEdmonton Oilers 3.2Toronto Maple Leafs 3.3
In the standingsEdmonton Oilers 1stToronto Maple Leafs 7th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameEdmonton Oilers +1.4Toronto Maple Leafs +0.5
Goals forEdmonton Oilers 4.6Toronto Maple Leafs 3.9
Goals againstEdmonton Oilers 3.2Toronto Maple Leafs 3.4
Shots on goalEdmonton Oilers 24.8Toronto Maple Leafs 28.8
Shots againstEdmonton Oilers 26.4Toronto Maple Leafs 30.2
Shooting %Edmonton Oilers 18.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 13.5%
Save %Edmonton Oilers 88.3%Toronto Maple Leafs 89.1%
Power-play %Edmonton Oilers 29.3%Toronto Maple Leafs 30.0%
Penalty kill %Edmonton Oilers 77.1%Toronto Maple Leafs 97.5%
Faceoff %Edmonton Oilers 50.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 52.6%
Penalty minutesEdmonton Oilers 8.6Toronto Maple Leafs 9.4
HitsEdmonton Oilers 24.9Toronto Maple Leafs 17.4
Blocked shotsEdmonton Oilers 13.0Toronto Maple Leafs 9.9
Per game · EDM at home, TOR away
Goal differential per gameEdmonton Oilers +0.7Toronto Maple Leafs −0.5
Goals forEdmonton Oilers 3.8Toronto Maple Leafs 3.6
Goals againstEdmonton Oilers 3.1Toronto Maple Leafs 4.1
Shots on goalEdmonton Oilers 29.7Toronto Maple Leafs 21.1
Shots againstEdmonton Oilers 25.2Toronto Maple Leafs 35.4
Shooting %Edmonton Oilers 12.8%Toronto Maple Leafs 17.1%
Save %Edmonton Oilers 88.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 89.0%
Power-play %Edmonton Oilers 22.7%Toronto Maple Leafs 29.7%
Penalty kill %Edmonton Oilers 72.7%Toronto Maple Leafs 87.3%
Faceoff %Edmonton Oilers 55.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 48.0%
Penalty minutesEdmonton Oilers 8.5Toronto Maple Leafs 16.4
HitsEdmonton Oilers 30.5Toronto Maple Leafs 20.9
Blocked shotsEdmonton Oilers 15.3Toronto Maple Leafs 10.1
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Oilers 1–3
Maple Leafs
Goals a gameGoals
7.5
EDM 3.5 · TOR 4.0
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
4 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 4
1 in overtime
- Feb 3, 2026: Edmonton Oilers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5.
- Dec 13, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Edmonton Oilers 6.
- Feb 1, 2025: Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
- Nov 16, 2024: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 3, after overtime.
Last five games
Oilers
4-1-0 - Win, 6–5 against Carolina Hurricanes, after a shootout, Oct 22. Odds: Oilers 2.70, Hurricanes 2.10.
- Win, 4–3 against Minnesota Wild, after overtime, Oct 20. Odds: Oilers 2.12, Wild 2.80.
- Win, 6–2 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 17. Odds: Mammoth 2.05, Oilers 2.90.
- Loss, 2–4 against Utah Mammoth, Oct 15. Odds: Oilers 2.60, Mammoth 2.38.
- Win, 4–1 at Los Angeles Kings, Oct 13. Odds: Kings 2.72, Oilers 2.30.
Maple Leafs
3-1-1 - Win, 5–4 against New York Rangers, Oct 22. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.45, Rangers 2.30.
- Win, 6–2 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 20. Odds: Blue Jackets 1.91, Maple Leafs 3.05.
- Win, 3–1 against San Jose Sharks, Oct 19. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.01, Sharks 3.00.
- Loss, 1–4 against New York Islanders, Oct 17. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.17, Islanders 2.77.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Buffalo Sabres, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.27, Sabres 2.50.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 03:33 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Roslovic J. Tripping
- 14:16 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Roslovic J. 0-1
- 19:04 2 min Edmonton Oilers: Formenton A. Roughing
- 19:04 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. Roughing
2nd period1-2
- 05:29 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews A. assists: Cowan E., Roslovic J. 0-2
- 06:23 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. assists: Marchenko K., Rielly M. 0-3
- 13:11 5 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Lettieri V. Fighting
- 13:11 5 min Edmonton Oilers: Murphy C. Fighting
- 14:39 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. Slashing
- 18:05 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Paul N. Roughing
- 18:05 2 min Edmonton Oilers: Michaels O. Roughing
- 19:04 Goal Edmonton Oilers: Draisaitl L. assists: McDavid C., Bouchard E. 1-3
3rd period1-4
- 05:45 2 min Edmonton Oilers: Dach C. Hooking
- 05:59 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander W. assists: Raddysh D., Marchenko K. 1-4
- 13:39 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: MacEwen Z. assists: Duhaime B. 1-5
- 16:12 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Sissons C. Hooking
- 16:35 Goal PPG Edmonton Oilers: Draisaitl L. assists: McDavid C., Bouchard E. 2-5
- 17:56 Goal ENG Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander W. assists: McCabe J. 2-6
- 19:29 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Lettieri V. assists: McKenna G. 2-7
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Edmonton Oilers coming into this game.
- 3-game winning streak for Toronto Maple Leafs coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Toronto Maple Leafs dropped from 2.55 to 2.25 since they were first published.
- In goal: Jarry T. for Edmonton Oilers (6-1-3 in the last 10 starts), Stolarz A. for Toronto Maple Leafs (7-3-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Toronto Maple Leafs.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (EDM) | 1.79 | 1.96 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.50 | 4.50 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 3.45 | 3.00 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap EDM | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 |  Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Edmonton Oilers host Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.