Finland vs Sweden Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Handicap Won

Sweden +1.5 1.26

Confidence63%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 59%

Full game

1X2WonSweden2.50Confidence 51%
Over/UnderWonO3.5odds up 1.37Confidence 56%
Best tip of the game: HandicapWonSweden +1.5odds up 1.26Confidence 63%
Winner (incl. OT)WonSwedenodds up 1.84Confidence 51%
Double chanceWonSweden or drawodds down 1.52Confidence 59%
Draw no betWonSwedenodds up 1.84Confidence 51%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.17Confidence 81%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostDrawodds down 2.40Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5odds down 1.13Confidence 70%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 1 games; the odds drifted 6% since they opened; the odds drifted 3% since they opened; the odds drifted 4% since they opened.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Finland 14

Sweden

Final 1–4

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 5

Draw after 60 minDraw 21% Decided in regulation

SWE to winTo win 54% SWE won

Score details

Correct scoreWon1–4After 60 min1–44%chance
1st period correct scoreLost1–11st period0–212%chance
Highest scoring periodLostTieMost goals3rd · 3 goals28%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 1-4
By period 1-1, 0-1, 0-2
Likeliest 1-4 (5%), 1-3 (4%), 2-3 (4%)

Season so far

This season

Season

Season record1-0-00-1-0

StreakW2L3

Rest1 day1 day

Goals for4.01.0

Goals against1.05.0

In the standings3rd2nd

Head-to-head

Finland 20

Sweden

Finland won two of the last two meetings

Goals a gameGoals 5.0 FIN 3.0 · SWE 2.0

Over 4.0 goalsOver 4.0 2 of 2 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 1 of 2 1 in a shootout

Apr 17, 2025: Finland 3, Sweden 2.
Apr 4, 2025: Sweden 2, Finland 3, after a shootout.

Last five games

Finland 4-1-0

Win, 4–1 at Denmark, Nov 6. Odds: Denmark 35.00, Finland 1.01.
Win, 4–3 against Czech Republic, after overtime, Apr 20, 2025.
Loss, 1–8 at Canada, Apr 19, 2025.
Win, 3–2 against Sweden, Apr 17, 2025.
Win, 2–1 at Switzerland, Apr 14, 2025.

Sweden 2-3-0

Loss, 1–5 against Canada, Nov 6. Odds: Sweden 15.00, Canada 1.09.
Loss, 2–3 at Switzerland, Apr 19, 2025.
Loss, 2–3 at Finland, Apr 17, 2025.
Win, 8–0 at Norway, Apr 15, 2025.
Win, 2–0 at Japan, Apr 13, 2025.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-2

04:14 Goal Sweden: Karlsson I. assists: Svensson H. 0-1
07:39 2 min Finland: Koukkula O. Holding
08:21 Goal PPG Sweden: Svensson H. assists: Jungaker M., Raunio J. 0-2
19:01 2 min Sweden: Blom L. High sticking

2nd period0-0

12:50 2 min Sweden: Karlsson I. Hooking
17:36 2 min Finland: Holopainen E. Interference

3rd period1-2

00:22 2 min Finland: Holopainen E. Late hit
06:14 Goal Sweden: Hjalmarsson S. assists: Jungaker M., Lowenhielm M. 0-3
08:41 Goal Finland: Nieminen P. assists: Yrjola S., Vanhanen S. 1-3
11:22 2 min Finland: Karvinen M. Late hit
18:38 Goal ENG Sweden: Grillfors T. 1-4

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

3-game losing streak for Sweden coming into this game.
4-1-0 in the last five for Finland.
3rd vs 2nd in the WCH Women standings.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (FIN)	2.50	2.50	No change
1X2: X (draw)	3.60	3.60	No change
1X2: 2 (SWE)	2.60	2.60	No change
Over/Under line	4.5	4	Line lowered
Handicap FIN	+0.5	−0.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

WCH Women standings

Regular Season · Group B

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Canada	3	3	0	0	9	1.500	24	1	+23
2	Sweden	3	2	1	0	6	1.000	15	6	+9
3	Finland	3	2	1	0	6	1.000	13	7	+6
4	Denmark	4	1	3	0	2	.250	4	26	−22
5	Japan	3	0	2	1	1	.167	4	20	−16

Playoffs
Relegation

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Finland vs Sweden prediction