Finland vs Sweden Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

O4.5 1.62

Confidence62%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 60%

Full game

1X2WonFinlandodds up 2.27Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.51.62Confidence 62%
HandicapWonSweden +1.51.28Confidence 63%
Winner (incl. OT)WonFinlandodds up 1.80Confidence 51%
Double chanceWonFinland or drawodds up 1.44Confidence 62%
Draw no betWonFinlandodds up 1.77Confidence 51%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.12Confidence 82%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonDraw2.50Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5odds up 1.17Confidence 71%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 2 games; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Finland 32

Sweden

Final 3–2

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 5

Draw after 60 minDraw 21% Decided in regulation

FIN to winTo win 52% FIN won

Score details

Correct scoreWon3–2After 60 min3–24%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period1–120%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals28%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 3-2
By period 0-0, 1-1, 2-1
Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)

Season so far

This season

Season

Season record2-0-02-0-0

Home / road split1-0-01-0-0

StreakW3W5

RestBack-to-backBack-to-back

Goals for2.53.5

Goals against1.02.0

Head-to-head

Finland 32

Sweden

Finland won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 3.8 FIN 2.6 · SWE 1.2

Over 5.0 goalsOver 5.0 1 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 0 of 5 All decided in regulation

Nov 9, 2025: Finland 2, Sweden 4.
Apr 25, 2025: Finland 3, Sweden 0.
Apr 24, 2025: Finland 5, Sweden 0.
Apr 18, 2025: Sweden 0, Finland 2.
Apr 17, 2025: Sweden 2, Finland 1.

Last five games

Finland 3-1-1

Win, 2–1 against Czech Republic, after a shootout, Nov 7. Odds: Finland 1.80, Czech Republic 3.20.
Win, 3–1 at Switzerland, Nov 5. Odds: Switzerland 3.60, Finland 1.67.
Win, 10–5 against Denmark, Apr 24.
Overtime loss, 1–2 against Latvia, after overtime, Apr 22.
Loss, 2–4 against Sweden, Nov 9, 2025.

Sweden 5-0-0

Win, 4–2 against Switzerland, Nov 7. Odds: Sweden 1.70, Switzerland 3.50.
Win, 3–2 at Czech Republic, after a shootout, Nov 5. Odds: Czech Republic 2.60, Sweden 2.11.
Win, 4–2 at Finland, Nov 9, 2025.
Win, 8–3 against Switzerland, Nov 8, 2025.
Win, 3–1 against Czech Republic, Nov 6, 2025.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period1-1

04:56 2 min Sweden: Johansson P. High sticking
05:01 Goal PPG Finland: Lehtonen M. assists: Tanus K., Borgstrom H. 1-0
09:29 2 min Finland: Paivarinta S. Tripping
12:08 Goal Sweden: Bemstrom E. assists: Eriksson F., Roos F. 1-1
19:08 2 min Finland: Tanus K. High sticking

2nd period2-1

01:13 Goal Sweden: Fagemo S. assists: Sylvegard M., De La Rose J. 1-2
05:06 2 min Sweden: Lundberg A. Tripping
05:12 Goal PPG Finland: Innala J. assists: Lehtonen M., Pakarinen I. 2-2
12:33 Goal Finland: Pakarinen I. assists: Borgstrom H., Kuokkanen J. 3-2
18:43 2 min Sweden: Sundsvik A. Tripping

3rd period0-0

01:35 2 min Sweden: Johansson F. Hooking
03:55 2 min Finland: Paivarinta S. Tripping
06:18 2 min Finland: Jarventie R. Interference
08:59 2 min Sweden: Henriksson K. Holding
15:13 2 min Sweden: Larsson J. Holding

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Second game in two days for both teams — Finland and Sweden played yesterday.
5-game winning streak for Sweden coming into this game.
3-game winning streak for Finland coming into this game.
3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Finland.
3.8 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (FIN)	2.35	2.35	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.00	4.00	No change
1X2: 2 (SWE)	2.30	2.30	No change
Over/Under line	5	5	No change
Handicap FIN	−1.5	+0.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

Karjala Cup standings

Regular Season

#	Team	P%
1	Czech Republic	.000
2	Finland	.000
3	Sweden	.000
4	Switzerland	.000

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.

Finland vs Sweden prediction