Fribourg vs Lugano Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Double chance Won

Fribourg or draw 1.32

Confidence77%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 67%

Full game

1X2WonFribourgodds down 1.82Confidence 60%
Over/UnderWonO4.51.37Confidence 70%
HandicapLostLugano +1.5odds up 1.52Confidence 61%
Winner (incl. OT)WonFribourgodds down 1.53Confidence 70%
Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonFribourg or drawodds down 1.32Confidence 77%
Draw no betWonFribourgodds down 1.49Confidence 73%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 86%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostFribourgodds down 2.35Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.75Confidence 54%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Fribourg 32

Lugano

Final 6–1

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 7

Draw after 60 minDraw 20% Decided in regulation

FRI to winTo win 69% FRI won

Score details

Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min6–14%chance
1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–19%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 3-2
By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 4-3 (3%), 5-4 (1%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record6-3-25-5-1

Home / road split4-1-02-3-0

StreakL2L1

Rest2 daysBack-to-back

Goals for3.53.5

Goals against2.63.3

In the standings7th12th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+1.50.0

Goals for3.83.3

Goals against2.33.3

Shots on goal29.932.4

Shots against28.724.8

Shooting %12.7%10.2%

Save %92.0%87.1%

Power-play %28.6%21.1%

Penalty kill %83.3%79.1%

Faceoff %49.3%52.0%

Penalty minutes7.28.6

Blocked shots12.616.5

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Fribourg 32

Lugano

Fribourg won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 4.8 FRI 2.8 · LUG 2.0

Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5 0 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 2 of 5 1 in overtime · 1 in a shootout

Jan 23, 2026: Fribourg 3, Lugano 2, after a shootout.
Jan 3, 2026: Lugano 3, Fribourg 2.
Nov 20, 2025: Lugano 0, Fribourg 4.
Sep 9, 2025: Fribourg 3, Lugano 2, after overtime.
Feb 15, 2025: Fribourg 2, Lugano 3.

Last five games

Fribourg 2-1-2

Overtime loss, 3–4 at Herning Blue Fox, after a shootout, Oct 14. Odds: Herning 5.40, Fribourg 1.41.
Overtime loss, 4–5 at Zurich, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Zurich 1.83, Fribourg 3.45.
Win, 7–2 against Ajoie, Oct 8.
Win, 6–1 against Nitra, Oct 6.
Loss, 1–2 against Ambri-Piotta, Oct 3.

Lugano 2-2-1

Loss, 2–3 against Davos, Oct 16. Odds: Lugano 2.09, Davos 2.92.
Win, 4–2 at Biel, Oct 10. Odds: Biel 2.27, Lugano 2.52.
Overtime loss, 2–3 against Zurich, after overtime, Oct 9. Odds: Lugano 3.15, Zurich 1.83.
Win, 5–2 at Lausanne, Oct 7.
Loss, 4–5 at Ajoie, Oct 4.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

00:29 2 min Fribourg: De La Rose J. Holding
04:39 2 min Lugano: Bertaggia A. Interference
15:02 2 min Fribourg: Streule M. Holding
16:39 Goal PPG Lugano: Fazzini L. assists: Thomson L., Lycksell O. 0-1

2nd period4-0

03:08 2 min Lugano: Zanetti M. Holding
06:57 5 min Lugano: Kupari R. Charging
08:58 Goal PPG Fribourg: Rathgeb Y. assists: Bertschy C., Kapla M. 1-1
09:56 Goal PPG Fribourg: Sorensen M. assists: Johnson L., Schmid S. 2-1
10:03 2 min Lugano: Alatalo S. Slashing
10:42 Goal PPG Fribourg: Rathgeb Y. assists: Sorensen M., Bertschy C. 3-1
11:12 Goal PPG Fribourg: Bertschy C. assists: Kapla M., Rathgeb Y. 4-1
13:04 2 min Fribourg: Streule M. Tripping
19:46 2 min Lugano: Tanner R. Roughing

3rd period2-0

00:18 2 min Lugano: Thurkauf C. Tripping
06:36 Goal Fribourg: Borgstrom H. assists: Nicolet K., Rathgeb Y. 5-1
08:54 2 min Lugano: Fazzini L. High sticking
10:13 Goal PPG Fribourg: Johnson L. assists: De La Rose J. 6-1
12:55 2 min Fribourg: Streule M. Tripping
15:46 2 min Fribourg: Johnson L. Tripping
18:45 2 min Fribourg: Hedlund L. Roughing

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Second game in two days for Lugano, who played yesterday.
In goal: Waeber L. for Fribourg (6-2-2 in the last 10 starts), Schlegel N. for Lugano (4-6-0 in the last 10 starts).
4-1-0 at home for Fribourg this season.
Goal differential gap of 1.5 per game — Fribourg +1.5, Lugano 0.0 over their recent games.
3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Fribourg.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (FRI)	1.78	1.78	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.05	4.05	No change
1X2: 2 (LUG)	3.05	3.05	No change
Over/Under line	6	5.5	Line lowered
Handicap FRI	−0.5	−0.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

National League standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Zurich	18	17	1	0	47	1.306	75	38	+37
2	Ambri-Piotta	18	11	5	2	33	.917	57	53	+4
3	Servette	19	11	6	2	32	.842	49	55	−6
4	Langnau Tigers	19	9	7	3	29	.763	66	56	+10
5	Zug	13	9	3	1	28	1.077	49	27	+22
6	Bern	17	9	5	3	28	.824	46	47	−1
7	Fribourg	18	9	7	2	27	.750	57	44	+13
8	Lausanne	20	9	10	1	26	.650	59	69	−10
9	Ajoie	19	9	8	2	25	.658	58	64	−6
10	Davos	19	8	9	2	24	.632	45	55	−10
11	Biel	18	7	9	2	23	.639	57	60	−3
12	Lugano	18	7	9	2	22	.611	56	62	−6
13	Rapperswil-Jona	19	6	10	3	19	.500	50	69	−19
14	EHC Kloten	19	6	12	1	18	.474	44	69	−25

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
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Play Out

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Fribourg vs Lugano prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details