Hameenlinna vs Ilves prediction
Chance to win · 26% and 51% in regulation
Crespin J.StartedSV 91.5% · GAA 2.70 · 5-5-0
Armalis M.StartedSV 92.3% · GAA 1.80 · 7-3-0All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Full game
- 1X2LostIlvesodds down 2.07Confidence 52%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU6.5odds down 1.34Confidence 75%
- HandicapWonHPK +1.5odds up 1.36Confidence 65%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostIlvesodds down 1.67Confidence 65%
- Double chanceLostIlves or drawodds down 1.37Confidence 75%
- Draw no betLostIlvesodds down 1.62Confidence 69%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.12Confidence 83%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostIlvesodds down 2.57Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU1.5odds down 1.76Confidence 58%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.HPK 1–2
Ilves Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–2After 60 min3–14%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–11st period0–019%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-2
- By period 0-1, 0-0, 1-1
- Likeliest 1-2 (5%), 2-3 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formHameenlinna
Ilves
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
HPK 0–5
Ilves - Sep 8, 2026: Hameenlinna 0, Ilves 4.
- Mar 10, 2026: Ilves 3, Hameenlinna 1.
- Dec 26, 2025: Hameenlinna 3, Ilves 8.
- Dec 4, 2025: Ilves 3, Hameenlinna 2.
- Nov 15, 2025: Hameenlinna 2, Ilves 3, after overtime.
Last five games
HPK
4-1-0 - Loss, 1–2 at SaiPa, Oct 15. Odds: SaiPa 1.75, HPK 3.30.
- Win, 5–3 against KooKoo, Oct 10.
- Win, 3–2 at Assat, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Assat 1.88, HPK 3.50.
- Win, 2–1 against Karpat, after overtime, Oct 3.
- Win, 2–1 against JYP, Oct 2.
Ilves
3-2-0 - Win, 3–0 at Jokerit, Oct 10.
- Loss, 1–5 against Lukko, Oct 9. Odds: Ilves 1.98, Lukko 3.20.
- Loss, 1–2 at Vaasan Sport, Oct 7.
- Win, 6–4 against Kiekko-Espoo, Oct 3.
- Win, 3–2 against Jukurit, Sep 29.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
No goals or penalties.
2nd period0-1
- 03:26 2 min Hameenlinna: — Too many men on the ice
- 03:48 Goal PPG Ilves: Korhonen B. assists: Sund T., Torok M. 0-1
- 15:44 2 min Ilves: Latvala O. Cross checking
- 19:41 2 min Hameenlinna: Andzans A. Holding
3rd period3-0
- 08:26 Goal Hameenlinna: Alitalo V. assists: Gabrielsson H., Kainulainen H. 1-1
- 13:39 Goal Hameenlinna: Kopiloff O. assists: Huttunen H., Gabrielsson H. 2-1
- 19:07 Goal ENG Hameenlinna: Vesterinen R. assists: Paivarinta S., Kukkonen M. 3-1
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Hameenlinna, who played yesterday.
- Odds moved: the odds on Ilves dropped from 1.67 to 1.47 since they were first published.
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Ilves.
- In goal: Crespin J. for Hameenlinna (5-5-0 in the last 10 starts), Armalis M. for Ilves (7-3-0 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 2.0 per game — Hameenlinna −0.6, Ilves +1.4 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (HAM) | 3.90 | 3.90 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.94 | 3.94 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (ILV) | 1.81 | 1.81 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5 | 5 | No change |
| Handicap HAM | +0.5 | +0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Liiga standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lukko |
19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 1.053 | 53 | 36 | +17 |
| 2 | Ilves |
20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 37 | .925 | 52 | 39 | +13 |
| 3 |  Jukurit |
20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 36 | .900 | 49 | 40 | +9 |
| 4 |  JYP |
17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 1.029 | 59 | 48 | +11 |
| 5 |  Assat |
20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 34 | .850 | 46 | 48 | −2 |
| 6 |  SaiPa |
18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 34 | .944 | 52 | 38 | +14 |
| 7 |  Karpat |
20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 33 | .825 | 53 | 52 | +1 |
| 8 |  TPS Turku |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 31 | .816 | 53 | 48 | +5 |
| 9 |  Kiekko-Espoo |
20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 31 | .775 | 61 | 49 | +12 |
| 10 |  Tappara |
19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 28 | .737 | 51 | 46 | +5 |
| 11 |  IFK Helsinki |
19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | .711 | 53 | 56 | −3 |
| 12 |  KalPa |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 25 | .694 | 46 | 41 | +5 |
| 13 |  Pelicans |
17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 24 | .706 | 40 | 38 | +2 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna |
20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 24 | .600 | 42 | 55 | −13 |
| 15 |  Vaasan Sport |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | .528 | 33 | 53 | −20 |
| 16 |  Jokerit |
18 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 15 | .417 | 41 | 62 | −21 |
| 17 |  KooKoo |
20 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 10 | .250 | 46 | 81 | −35 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
- Relegation
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Hameenlinna host Ilves in the Liiga on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.