Hamilton Hammers vs Rochester Americans prediction
Chance to win · 31% and 47% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonRochesterodds up 2.35Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.40Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostHamilton +1.51.29Confidence 64%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonRochesterodds up 2.01Confidence 59%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonRochester or drawodds up 1.52Confidence 67%
- Draw no betWonRochesterodds down 2.04Confidence 61%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonRochester2.95Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.83Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 4 games; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Hamilton 2–3
Rochester Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min1–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreWon0–21st period0–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 3rd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 2-3 (4%), 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%)
Season so far
This seasonHamilton Hammers
Rochester Americans
Last five games
Hamilton
1-2-1 - Loss, 2–5 against Toronto Marlies, Oct 11. Odds: Hamilton 2.47, Toronto 2.27.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Toronto Marlies, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Hamilton 2.55, Toronto 2.25.
- Loss, 3–5 at Toronto Marlies, Oct 3.
- Win, 5–2 at Belleville Senators, Oct 2.
Rochester
2-2-1 - Loss, 1–2 at Utica Comets, Oct 10.
- Win, 7–1 against Syracuse Crunch, Oct 9. Odds: Rochester 2.18, Syracuse 2.70.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 at Belleville Senators, after a shootout, Oct 4.
- Win, 3–1 against Toronto Marlies, Oct 2.
- Loss, 2–4 at Toronto Marlies, Apr 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-2
- 11:06 Goal PPG Rochester Americans: Richard J. assists: Polin J. 0-1
- 17:25 Goal Rochester Americans: Funk Z. assists: Jones C. 0-2
2nd period0-1
- 15:46 Goal Rochester Americans: Kuntar T. assists: Meyer C., McCarthy G. 0-3
3rd period1-1
- 16:27 Goal PPG Hamilton Hammers: Bear E. assists: Finley Q., Aitcheson K. 1-3
- 19:05 Goal ENG Rochester Americans: Polin J. assists: Sheary C. 1-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Hamilton Hammers coming into this game.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (HAM) | 2.05 | 2.05 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.70 | 3.70 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (ROC) | 2.55 | 2.55 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap HAM | −0.5 | −0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 |  Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 | Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Hamilton Hammers host Rochester Americans in the AHL on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.