Hamilton Hammers vs Toronto Marlies prediction
Chance to win · 29% and 50% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2WonTorontoodds down 2.30Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.44Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonToronto +1.5odds down 1.29Confidence 74%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonTorontoodds down 1.75Confidence 63%
- Double chanceWonToronto or drawodds down 1.52Confidence 71%
- Draw no betWonTorontoodds down 1.75Confidence 65%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.10Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostTorontoodds up 2.62Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.51.85Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Hamilton 1–4
Toronto Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min1–55%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period0–08%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 5 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (5%), 2-5 (4%), 2-3 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 11+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formHamilton Hammers
Toronto Marlies
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Hamilton 0–4
Toronto - Oct 21, 2026: Toronto Marlies 4, Hamilton Hammers 1.
- Oct 11, 2026: Hamilton Hammers 2, Toronto Marlies 5.
- Oct 9, 2026: Hamilton Hammers 4, Toronto Marlies 5, after a shootout.
- Oct 3, 2026: Toronto Marlies 5, Hamilton Hammers 3.
Last five games
Hamilton
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 2–3 at Utica Comets, after a shootout, Nov 1. Odds: Utica 2.05, Hamilton 2.75.
- Loss, 0–7 at Syracuse Crunch, Oct 30. Odds: Syracuse 2.20, Hamilton 2.55.
- Win, 5–4 against Hartford Wolf Pack, after overtime, Oct 29. Odds: Hamilton 2.30, Hartford 2.40.
- Win, 2–1 at Laval Rocket, Oct 24. Odds: Laval 2.10, Hamilton 2.65.
- Loss, 2–4 at Laval Rocket, Oct 23. Odds: Laval 2.10, Hamilton 2.65.
Toronto
2-2-1 - Loss, 1–4 at Belleville Senators, Nov 1. Odds: Belleville 2.45, Toronto 2.20.
- Win, 5–3 against Hershey Bears, Oct 30. Odds: Toronto 2.50, Hershey 2.20.
- Loss, 0–3 against Rockford IceHogs, Oct 25. Odds: Toronto 2.05, Rockford 2.75.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Rockford IceHogs, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Toronto 2.10, Rockford 2.71.
- Win, 4–1 against Hamilton Hammers, Oct 21. Odds: Toronto 2.20, Hamilton 2.50.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
No goals or penalties.
2nd period0-1
- 06:55 Goal Toronto Marlies: Barbolini M. assists: Chadwick N., Johnson R. 0-1
3rd period1-4
- 02:07 Goal Toronto Marlies: Valis B. assists: Brisson B., Rybinski H. 0-2
- 05:23 Goal Toronto Marlies: Brisson B. assists: Rybinski H., Danford B. 0-3
- 07:04 Goal PPG Hamilton Hammers: Finley Q. assists: Healey R., Thiesing C. 1-3
- 13:32 Goal Toronto Marlies: Sim L. assists: Pezzetta M., McWard C. 1-4
- 17:46 Goal Toronto Marlies: Johnson R. 1-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Toronto Marlies dropped from 2.07 to 1.70 since they were first published.
- 1-3-1 at home for Hamilton Hammers this season.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Toronto Marlies.
- Goal differential gap of 1.3 per game — Hamilton Hammers −1.6, Toronto Marlies −0.3 over their recent games.
- 7.3 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (HAM) | 2.20 | 2.30 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.30 | 4.30 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 2.50 | 2.40 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap HAM | −1.5 | +0.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 | Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 |  Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Hamilton Hammers host Toronto Marlies in the AHL on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.