Hermes vs KeuPa prediction
Chance to win · 50% and 28% in regulation
Ahopelto J.StartedSV 91.7% · GAA 2.60 · 4-4-2
Varis K.StartedSV 87.5% · GAA 3.70 · 2-5-3All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2LostHermesodds up 1.62Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds down 1.34Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonKeuPa +2.5odds down 1.37Confidence 70%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostHermesodds up 1.37Confidence 63%
- Double chanceLostHermes or drawodds down 1.24Confidence 73%
- Draw no betLostHermes1.34Confidence 66%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostHermesodds up 2.12Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.69Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Hermes 4–2
KeuPa Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min2–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–39%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-1 (4%), 3-2 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formHermes
KeuPa
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Hermes 4–1
KeuPa - Oct 16, 2026: KeuPa 2, Hermes 3.
- Sep 11, 2026: Hermes 5, KeuPa 0.
- Feb 24, 2026: KeuPa 1, Hermes 4.
- Feb 12, 2026: KeuPa 5, Hermes 2.
- Jan 17, 2026: Hermes 4, KeuPa 1.
Last five games
Hermes
1-1-3 - Overtime loss, 3–4 against Pyry, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Hermes 1.73, Pyry 3.51.
- Win, 3–2 at KeuPa, Oct 16. Odds: KeuPa 2.61, Hermes 2.19.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 at TUTO, after a shootout, Oct 10.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at K-Vantaa, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: K-Vantaa 1.88, Hermes 3.20.
- Loss, 1–2 against K-Vantaa, Oct 3.
KeuPa
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–3 against Hermes, Oct 16. Odds: KeuPa 2.61, Hermes 2.19.
- Win, 5–2 at K-Vantaa, Oct 15. Odds: K-Vantaa 1.66, KeuPa 4.00.
- Win, 4–3 at IPK, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: IPK 1.45, KeuPa 5.00.
- Loss, 2–3 at Kiekko-Pojat, Oct 8.
- Loss, 1–6 against IPK, Oct 2.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-3
- 04:36 Goal Hermes: Pennanen A. assists: Honkasalo J., Heinonen O. 1-0
- 09:46 Goal PS KeuPa: Winqvist K. 1-1
- 13:10 Goal KeuPa: Jarvenpaa M. assists: Liljamo T., Paganus T. 1-2
- 18:19 Goal PPG KeuPa: Jarvenpaa M. assists: Vuontisvaara O., Matikainen K. 1-3
2nd period1-0
- 12:54 Goal Hermes: Pennanen A. assists: Honkasalo J., Lauri O. 2-3
3rd period0-1
- 19:20 Goal ENG KeuPa: Vuontisvaara O. 2-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Ahopelto J. for Hermes (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts), Varis K. for KeuPa (2-5-3 in the last 10 starts).
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Hermes.
- 1-1-3 in the last five for Hermes.
- Save % gap: Hermes 89.6%, KeuPa 86.7% over their recent games.
- 5.4 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (HER) | 1.65 | 1.65 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.40 | 4.40 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (KEU) | 3.70 | 3.70 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6 | Line lowered |
| Handicap HER | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Mestis standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IPK |
14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.143 | 47 | 31 | +16 |
| 2 |  TUTO |
14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 53 | 29 | +24 |
| 3 |  K-Vantaa |
14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 26 | .929 | 35 | 33 | +2 |
| 4 |  Kiekko-Pojat |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .688 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| 5 |  RoKi |
15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 21 | .700 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 6 | KeuPa |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | .656 | 45 | 53 | −8 |
| 7 |  Pyry |
16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20 | .625 | 47 | 55 | −8 |
| 8 | Hermes |
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .600 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 9 |  Kettera |
16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 13 | .406 | 29 | 47 | −18 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- 5th-8th places
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Hermes host KeuPa in the Mestis on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.