Jarfalla vs Asploven prediction
Chance to win · 72% and 14% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 69%Full game
- 1X2LostJarfallaodds down 1.88Confidence 62%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.32Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostJarfalla -1.5odds down 2.30Confidence 62%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostJarfalla1.51Confidence 81%
- Double chanceLostJarfalla or drawodds down 1.37Confidence 81%
- Draw no betLostJarfallaodds down 1.50Confidence 69%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.07Confidence 84%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostJarfallaodds down 2.27Confidence 53%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.64Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Jarfalla 4–1
Asploven Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–1After 60 min1–56%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–011%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals29%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-1
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-1 (6%), 5-2 (5%), 4-2 (4%)
Season so far
This seasonJarfalla
Asploven
Last five games
Jarfalla
3-2-0 - Loss, 2–5 against Boden, Oct 17. Odds: Jarfalla 7.70, Boden 1.25.
- Loss, 3–5 against Lindloven, Oct 11.
- Win, 5–2 at Surahammar, Oct 9. Odds: Surahammar 1.83, Jarfalla 3.05.
- Win, 6–3 against Pitea, Oct 4.
- Win, 3–2 against Ornskoldsvik, after a shootout, Oct 3.
Asploven
1-4-0 - Loss, 0–1 at Enkoping, Oct 17. Odds: Enkoping 2.40, Asploven 2.26.
- Loss, 1–4 against Borlange, Oct 10.
- Win, 5–3 at Sollentuna, Oct 4.
- Loss, 0–9 at Vallentuna, Oct 3.
- Loss, 0–3 against Surahammar, Sep 27.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
No goals or penalties.
2nd period0-4
- 02:04 Goal Asploven: Kantola E. assists: Virta S. 0-1
- 04:45 Goal Asploven: Virta S. assists: Saikkonen T., Kantola E. 0-2
- 08:07 Goal PPG Asploven: Virta S. assists: Kekarainen J., Kemppainen P. 0-3
- 09:47 Goal Asploven: Kantola E. assists: Kemppainen P., Kekarainen J. 0-4
3rd period1-1
- 16:17 Goal PPG Jarfalla: Hedman W. assists: Frylen H., Andersson D. 1-4
- 19:48 Goal PPG Asploven: Fellman P. assists: Juntto W., Bertgren J. 1-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Jarfalla and Asploven played yesterday.
- The total moved up from 5.5 to 6.5 since it was first published.
- 1-4-0 in the last five for Asploven.
- 11th vs 13th in the HockeyEttan Norra standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (JAR) | 1.83 | 1.83 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (ASP) | 2.95 | 2.95 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap JAR | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
HockeyEttan Norra standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hudiksvall |
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.300 | 62 | 13 | +49 |
| 2 |  Sundsvall |
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 1.000 | 45 | 27 | +18 |
| 3 |  Boden |
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 1.000 | 47 | 35 | +12 |
| 4 |  Ornskoldsvik |
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.050 | 37 | 28 | +9 |
| 5 |  Pitea |
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1.000 | 37 | 29 | +8 |
| 6 |  Kalix |
12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | .833 | 36 | 28 | +8 |
| 7 |  Surahammar |
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | .818 | 22 | 23 | −1 |
| 8 |  Lindloven |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | .944 | 26 | 18 | +8 |
| 9 |  Vasby |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | .944 | 31 | 28 | +3 |
| 10 |  Kiruna IF |
12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 17 | .708 | 33 | 34 | −1 |
| 11 | Jarfalla |
11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17 | .773 | 36 | 39 | −3 |
| 12 |  Stromsbro IF |
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | .833 | 20 | 23 | −3 |
| 13 | Asploven |
11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | .682 | 25 | 33 | −8 |
| 14 |  Borlange |
12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | .583 | 28 | 31 | −3 |
| 15 |  Vallentuna |
10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 13 | .650 | 35 | 36 | −1 |
| 16 |  Sollentuna |
10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10 | .500 | 26 | 44 | −18 |
| 17 |  Norrtalje |
11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | .318 | 24 | 40 | −16 |
| 18 |  Enkoping |
10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | .300 | 23 | 41 | −18 |
| 19 |  Arlanda |
11 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3 | .136 | 15 | 58 | −43 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
- Play Out
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Jarfalla host Asploven in the HockeyEttan Norra on Sunday, October 18, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.