K-Vantaa vs KeuPa prediction
Chance to win · 63% and 18% in regulation
Auvinen S.StartedSV 90.7% · GAA 2.40 · 6-4-0
Varis K.StartedSV 87.2% · GAA 3.90 · 1-5-4All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 72%Full game
- 1X2LostK-Vantaaodds up 1.44Confidence 66%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds down 1.33Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostK-Vantaa -0.5odds up 1.44Confidence 65%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostK-Vantaaodds up 1.24Confidence 77%
- Banker of the day: Double chanceLostK-Vantaa or drawodds up 1.20Confidence 94%
- Draw no betLostK-Vantaaodds up 1.25Confidence 79%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.08Confidence 85%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostK-Vantaaodds up 2.05Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.68Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The banker is the day’s best bet at short odds, not its surest result. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.K-Vantaa 4–1
KeuPa Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–1After 60 min2–56%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–011%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 7 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-1
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-1 (6%), 5-2 (6%), 4-2 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formK-Vantaa
KeuPa
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
K-Vantaa 4–1
KeuPa - Jan 31, 2026: KeuPa 0, K-Vantaa 8.
- Jan 30, 2026: K-Vantaa 5, KeuPa 2.
- Dec 4, 2025: KeuPa 4, K-Vantaa 1.
- Nov 14, 2025: K-Vantaa 4, KeuPa 2.
- Oct 22, 2025: KeuPa 1, K-Vantaa 4.
Last five games
K-Vantaa
3-2-0 - Win, 5–4 against Hermes, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: K-Vantaa 1.88, Hermes 3.20.
- Win, 2–1 at Hermes, Oct 3.
- Loss, 1–4 at RoKi, Oct 2.
- Win, 1–0 at Kiekko-Pojat, Sep 26.
- Loss, 0–4 at IPK, Sep 25.
KeuPa
2-3-0 - Win, 4–3 at IPK, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: IPK 1.45, KeuPa 5.00.
- Loss, 2–3 at Kiekko-Pojat, Oct 8.
- Loss, 1–6 against IPK, Oct 2.
- Win, 5–2 at Kettera, Oct 1.
- Loss, 2–5 against RoKi, Sep 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
No goals or penalties.
2nd period0-0
No goals or penalties.
3rd period2-5
- 05:17 Goal K-Vantaa: Moilanen S. assists: Lemberg L., Liuksiala J. 1-0
- 10:47 Goal KeuPa: Matikainen K. assists: Eloranta E. 1-1
- 14:08 Goal PPG KeuPa: Vaisanen V. assists: Jarvenpaa M., Vuontisvaara O. 1-2
- 14:59 Goal SHG KeuPa: Winqvist K. assists: Vaisanen V., Mutka J. 1-3
- 16:01 Goal ENG KeuPa: Wolin A. assists: Ketonen N. 1-4
- 18:54 Goal PPG K-Vantaa: Rasanen V. assists: Gustafsson R., Moilanen S. 2-4
- 19:46 Goal ENG KeuPa: Jarvenpaa M. assists: Mutka J., Winqvist K. 2-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Auvinen S. for K-Vantaa (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Varis K. for KeuPa (1-5-4 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 2.3 per game — K-Vantaa +0.8, KeuPa −1.5 over their recent games.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for K-Vantaa.
- Save % gap: K-Vantaa 91.7%, KeuPa 86.0% over their recent games.
- 6.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (VAN) | 1.66 | 1.66 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.48 | 4.48 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (KEU) | 4.00 | 4.00 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6 | Line lowered |
| Handicap VAN | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Mestis standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IPK |
14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.143 | 47 | 31 | +16 |
| 2 |  TUTO |
14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 53 | 29 | +24 |
| 3 | K-Vantaa |
14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 26 | .929 | 35 | 33 | +2 |
| 4 |  Kiekko-Pojat |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .688 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| 5 |  RoKi |
15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 21 | .700 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 6 | KeuPa |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | .656 | 45 | 53 | −8 |
| 7 |  Pyry |
16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20 | .625 | 47 | 55 | −8 |
| 8 |  Hermes |
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .600 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 9 |  Kettera |
16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 13 | .406 | 29 | 47 | −18 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- 5th-8th places
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
K-Vantaa host KeuPa in the Mestis on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.