KeuPa vs Hermes prediction
Chance to win · 35% and 42% in regulation
Pasanen J.StartedSV 80% · GAA 2.63 · 6-4-0
Saarinen K.StartedSV 90.2% · GAA 2.40 · 1-3-1All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%Full game
- 1X2WonHermesodds up 2.00Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.51.30Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonKeuPa +1.5odds up 1.39Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonHermesodds up 1.62Confidence 55%
- Double chanceWonHermes or drawodds up 1.36Confidence 67%
- Draw no betWonHermes1.60Confidence 56%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.06Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonHermesodds up 2.42Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.69Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.KeuPa 2–3
Hermes Score details
- Correct scoreWon2–3After 60 min2–33%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period1–27%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 2-3 (3%), 1-2 (3%), 3-4 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formKeuPa
Hermes
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
KeuPa 2–3
Hermes - Oct 21, 2026: Hermes 2, KeuPa 4.
- Sep 11, 2026: Hermes 5, KeuPa 0.
- Feb 24, 2026: KeuPa 1, Hermes 4.
- Feb 12, 2026: KeuPa 5, Hermes 2.
- Jan 17, 2026: Hermes 4, KeuPa 1.
Last five games
KeuPa
3-2-0 - Win, 5–2 at K-Vantaa, Oct 15. Odds: K-Vantaa 1.66, KeuPa 4.00.
- Win, 4–3 at IPK, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: IPK 1.45, KeuPa 5.00.
- Loss, 2–3 at Kiekko-Pojat, Oct 8.
- Loss, 1–6 against IPK, Oct 2.
- Win, 5–2 at Kettera, Oct 1.
Hermes
1-1-3 - Overtime loss, 2–3 at TUTO, after a shootout, Oct 10.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at K-Vantaa, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: K-Vantaa 1.88, Hermes 3.20.
- Loss, 1–2 against K-Vantaa, Oct 3.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Kiekko-Pojat, after a shootout, Oct 2.
- Win, 5–2 against Pyry, Sep 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 07:19 Goal Hermes: Maki E. assists: Puikkonen T., Niinisto J. 0-1
- 08:07 Goal KeuPa: Rantanen N. assists: Vaisanen V. 1-1
- 13:56 Goal PPG Hermes: Rautiainen J. assists: Takala E., Niinisto J. 1-2
2nd period1-0
- 18:14 Goal PPG KeuPa: Winqvist K. assists: Vuontisvaara O., Mutka J. 2-2
3rd period0-1
- 02:14 Goal Hermes: Vuorinen R. assists: Maki E., Monkkonen M. 2-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for KeuPa, who played yesterday.
- 4-game losing streak for Hermes coming into this game.
- In goal: Pasanen J. for KeuPa (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Saarinen K. for Hermes (1-3-1 in the last 5 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Hermes.
- Power play vs penalty kill: 26.7% on the power play for KeuPa, 70.3% on the penalty kill for Hermes.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (KEU) | 2.61 | 2.61 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.14 | 4.22 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (HER) | 2.21 | 2.19 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap KEU | +0.5 | +0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Mestis standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IPK |
14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.143 | 47 | 31 | +16 |
| 2 |  TUTO |
14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 53 | 29 | +24 |
| 3 |  K-Vantaa |
14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 26 | .929 | 35 | 33 | +2 |
| 4 |  Kiekko-Pojat |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .688 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| 5 |  RoKi |
15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 21 | .700 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 6 | KeuPa |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | .656 | 45 | 53 | −8 |
| 7 |  Pyry |
16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20 | .625 | 47 | 55 | −8 |
| 8 | Hermes |
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .600 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 9 |  Kettera |
16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 13 | .406 | 29 | 47 | −18 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- 5th-8th places
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
KeuPa host Hermes in the Mestis on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.