Kiekko-Pojat vs Hermes prediction
Chance to win · 45% and 32% in regulation
Rossi J.StartedSV 79.3% · GAA 4.00 · 1-2-0
Saarinen K.StartedSV 89.5% · GAA 2.50 · 3-3-2All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonKiekko-Pojatodds up 1.67Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds down 1.32Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapLostHermes +1.5odds down 1.61Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonKiekko-Pojatodds up 1.40Confidence 59%
- Double chanceWonKiekko-Pojat or drawodds up 1.22Confidence 70%
- Draw no betWonKiekko-Pojatodds up 1.40Confidence 62%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)LostYes1.07Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonKiekko-Pojatodds up 2.20Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.70Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Kiekko-Pojat 3–2
Hermes Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min6–03%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–08%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 2-1 (3%), 4-3 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formKiekko-Pojat
Hermes
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Kiekko-Pojat 2–3
Hermes - Oct 2, 2026: Hermes 4, Kiekko-Pojat 5, after a shootout.
- Feb 28, 2026: Hermes 1, Kiekko-Pojat 2, after a shootout.
- Feb 13, 2026: Kiekko-Pojat 2, Hermes 3.
- Jan 13, 2026: Kiekko-Pojat 2, Hermes 3.
- Dec 4, 2025: Hermes 7, Kiekko-Pojat 6, after a shootout.
Last five games
Kiekko-Pojat
3-1-1 - Loss, 1–3 at IPK, Oct 23. Odds: IPK 1.90, Kiekko-Pojat 2.95.
- Win, 5–1 against Pyry, Oct 22. Odds: Kiekko-Pojat 1.45, Pyry 4.90.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against TUTO, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Kiekko-Pojat 2.80, TUTO 2.02.
- Win, 3–1 against Kettera, Oct 16. Odds: Kiekko-Pojat 2.13, Kettera 2.75.
- Win, 5–2 against RoKi, Oct 10.
Hermes
2-1-2 - Win, 4–3 against RoKi, Oct 23. Odds: Hermes 2.30, RoKi 2.40.
- Loss, 2–4 against KeuPa, Oct 21. Odds: Hermes 1.65, KeuPa 3.70.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against Pyry, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Hermes 1.73, Pyry 3.51.
- Win, 3–2 at KeuPa, Oct 16. Odds: KeuPa 2.61, Hermes 2.19.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 at TUTO, after a shootout, Oct 10.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 01:27 Goal Kiekko-Pojat: Janhonen J. assists: Lohisalo J., Liiri N. 1-0
2nd period3-0
- 08:31 Goal Kiekko-Pojat: Liiri N. assists: Suvanto N., Lehmus J. 2-0
- 18:30 Goal Kiekko-Pojat: Taskula J. assists: Kokkola T., Karjalainen H. 3-0
- 19:59 Goal Kiekko-Pojat: Tuhkanen O. assists: Koskela V., Sihvonen R. 4-0
3rd period2-0
- 00:01 Goalie change Hermes: Ahopelto J. replaces Saarinen K.
- 06:13 Goal Kiekko-Pojat: Karjalainen H. 5-0
- 11:03 Goal PPG Kiekko-Pojat: Hult O. assists: Janhonen J., Tuhkanen O. 6-0
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Rossi J. for Kiekko-Pojat (1-2-0 in the last 3 starts), Saarinen K. for Hermes (3-3-2 in the last 8 starts).
- Power play vs penalty kill: 29.7% on the power play for Kiekko-Pojat, 70.3% on the penalty kill for Hermes.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Hermes.
- Save % gap: Kiekko-Pojat 87.4%, Hermes 89.6% over their recent games.
- 7.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (KIE) | 1.70 | 1.75 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.45 | 4.40 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (HER) | 3.50 | 3.30 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6 | Line lowered |
| Handicap KIE | −0.5 | −0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Mestis standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IPK |
14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.143 | 47 | 31 | +16 |
| 2 |  TUTO |
14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 53 | 29 | +24 |
| 3 |  K-Vantaa |
14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 26 | .929 | 35 | 33 | +2 |
| 4 | Kiekko-Pojat |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .688 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| 5 |  RoKi |
15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 21 | .700 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 6 |  KeuPa |
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | .656 | 45 | 53 | −8 |
| 7 |  Pyry |
16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20 | .625 | 47 | 55 | −8 |
| 8 | Hermes |
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .600 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 9 |  Kettera |
16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 13 | .406 | 29 | 47 | −18 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- 5th-8th places
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Kiekko-Pojat host Hermes in the Mestis on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.