Manitoba Moose vs Toronto Marlies prediction
Chance to win · 39% and 38% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostTorontoodds down 2.72Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostO4.5odds up 1.43Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonToronto +1.5odds up 1.37Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostTorontoodds down 2.09Confidence 51%
- Double chanceWonToronto or drawodds up 1.63Confidence 66%
- Draw no betPushTorontoodds down 2.14Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.10Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDrawodds up 2.60Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.87Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Manitoba 1–4
Toronto Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min1–14%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–11st period1–013%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 1-1, 0-0, 0-3
- Likeliest 1-4 (4%), 2-3 (3%), 2-5 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formManitoba Moose
Toronto Marlies
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Manitoba 4–1
Toronto - Nov 7, 2026: Manitoba Moose 4, Toronto Marlies 3, after overtime.
- Mar 31, 2026: Toronto Marlies 1, Manitoba Moose 5.
- Mar 25, 2026: Toronto Marlies 4, Manitoba Moose 1.
- Mar 8, 2026: Manitoba Moose 1, Toronto Marlies 0.
- Mar 6, 2026: Manitoba Moose 3, Toronto Marlies 2.
Last five games
Manitoba
3-2-0 - Win, 6–3 at Rockford IceHogs, Oct 30. Odds: Rockford 2.24, Manitoba 2.52.
- Loss, 0–3 at Milwaukee Admirals, Oct 28. Odds: Milwaukee 2.15, Manitoba 2.65.
- Loss, 3–6 at Chicago Wolves, Oct 27. Odds: Chicago 2.25, Manitoba 2.45.
- Win, 2–0 at Iowa Wild, Oct 24. Odds: Iowa 2.50, Manitoba 2.25.
- Win, 4–3 at Iowa Wild, Oct 23. Odds: Iowa 2.50, Manitoba 2.25.
Toronto
2-2-1 - Win, 5–1 at Hamilton Hammers, Nov 4. Odds: Hamilton 2.30, Toronto 2.40.
- Loss, 1–4 at Belleville Senators, Nov 1. Odds: Belleville 2.45, Toronto 2.20.
- Win, 5–3 against Hershey Bears, Oct 30. Odds: Toronto 2.50, Hershey 2.20.
- Loss, 0–3 against Rockford IceHogs, Oct 25. Odds: Toronto 2.05, Rockford 2.75.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Rockford IceHogs, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Toronto 2.10, Rockford 2.71.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 08:07 Goal Manitoba Moose: Duehr W. 1-0
2nd period0-1
- 02:37 Goal Toronto Marlies: Johnstone M. assists: Pezzetta M., Chadwick N. 1-1
3rd period0-0
No goals or penalties.
Overtime1-0
- 00:29 Goal Manitoba Moose: Duehr W. assists: Zhilkin D., Phillips I. 2-1
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 6 days off for Manitoba Moose, 1 for Toronto Marlies.
- Goal differential gap of 1.0 per game — Manitoba Moose +1.3, Toronto Marlies +0.3 over their recent games.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Manitoba Moose.
- +2.4 goals at home — Manitoba Moose averaged 5.5 at home and 3.1 away this season.
- Save % gap: Manitoba Moose 91.2%, Toronto Marlies 87.9% over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MAN) | 2.05 | 2.05 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.20 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 2.80 | 2.80 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap MAN | −0.5 | −1.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Grand Rapids Griffins |
14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | .786 | 56 | 35 | +21 |
| 2 | Manitoba Moose |
15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 22 | .733 | 56 | 38 | +18 |
| 3 |  Milwaukee Admirals |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | .615 | 33 | 28 | +5 |
| 4 |  Iowa Wild |
16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 15 | .469 | 42 | 47 | −5 |
| 5 |  Chicago Wolves |
13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 | .500 | 36 | 46 | −10 |
| 6 |  Rockford IceHogs |
13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | .423 | 33 | 43 | −10 |
| 7 |  Texas Stars |
14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 9 | .321 | 40 | 60 | −20 |
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 | Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 |  Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Manitoba Moose host Toronto Marlies in the AHL on Friday, November 6, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.