Mariestad vs Boras prediction
Chance to win · 56% and 24% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2WonMariestadodds down 2.88Confidence 52%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.33Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonMariestad +2.5odds down 1.25Confidence 76%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMariestadodds down 2.09Confidence 64%
- Double chanceWonMariestad or drawodds down 1.80Confidence 65%
- Draw no betWonMariestadodds down 2.25Confidence 56%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.07Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonMariestadodds down 2.95Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.68Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 4 games; an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Mariestad 4–1
Boras Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–1After 60 min3–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–08%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost2nd periodMost goals3rd · 4 goals29%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-1
- By period 2-0, 2-1, 0-0
- Likeliest 4-1 (4%), 5-2 (4%), 4-2 (4%)
Season so far
This seasonMariestad
Boras
Head-to-head
Mariestad 3–2
Boras - Mar 8, 2026: Mariestad 3, Boras 4, after overtime.
- Mar 7, 2026: Mariestad 6, Boras 2.
- Mar 4, 2026: Boras 7, Mariestad 5.
- Feb 4, 2026: Mariestad 4, Boras 2.
- Nov 21, 2025: Boras 2, Mariestad 5.
Last five games
Mariestad
4-0-1 - Win, 7–4 against Vastervik, Oct 11.
- Win, 10–1 at Grums, Oct 9. Odds: Grums 4.10, Mariestad 1.56.
- Win, 4–2 against Mjolby, Oct 2.
- Win, 5–4 at Hanvikens, after overtime, Sep 26.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against Boras, after overtime, Mar 8.
Boras
4-1-0 - Win, 6–3 against Grastorps, Oct 14. Odds: Boras 1.27, Grastorps 8.24.
- Win, 3–1 against Grums, Oct 11.
- Loss, 2–4 at Kungalvs, Oct 4.
- Win, 6–1 against Kungalvs, Sep 30.
- Win, 5–2 at Boro Vetlanda HC, Sep 27.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 10:26 Goal PPG Mariestad: Lundman A. assists: Blomberg A., Wennlund M. 1-0
2nd period0-0
No goals or penalties.
3rd period2-2
- 03:53 Goal Boras: Smedberg E. assists: Svensson W. 1-1
- 06:12 Goal Mariestad: Lundman A. assists: Jonsson K. 2-1
- 06:31 Goal Mariestad: Noren G. assists: Blixt V. 3-1
- 08:07 Goal PPG Boras: Svensson A. assists: Lindberg C., Aterius E. 3-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Mariestad coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Mariestad, 1 for Boras.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Mariestad.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Boras.
- 8.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MAR) | 2.52 | 2.91 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.30 | 4.04 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (BOR) | 2.05 | 1.98 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap MAR | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
HockeyEttan Sodra standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boras |
12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 1.042 | 53 | 25 | +28 |
| 2 |  Tingsryd |
11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1.136 | 49 | 27 | +22 |
| 3 | Mariestad |
10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 1.150 | 51 | 28 | +23 |
| 4 |  Karlskrona |
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.150 | 34 | 16 | +18 |
| 5 |  Vita Hasten |
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.100 | 34 | 20 | +14 |
| 6 |  Dalen |
10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 1.000 | 34 | 23 | +11 |
| 7 |  Boro Vetlanda HC |
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | .864 | 34 | 33 | +1 |
| 8 |  Halmstad |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18 | .900 | 33 | 27 | +6 |
| 9 |  Tranas |
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | .773 | 34 | 36 | −2 |
| 10 |  Vastervik |
11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | .727 | 41 | 43 | −2 |
| 11 |  Huddinge |
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | .682 | 27 | 33 | −6 |
| 12 |  Tyringe |
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 | .636 | 36 | 34 | +2 |
| 13 |  Hanvikens |
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | .636 | 31 | 36 | −5 |
| 14 |  Kungalvs |
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 | .636 | 33 | 42 | −9 |
| 15 |  Mjolby |
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | .650 | 33 | 32 | +1 |
| 16 |  Troja/Ljungby |
11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 10 | .455 | 30 | 47 | −17 |
| 17 |  Morrums GoIS |
11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9 | .409 | 23 | 41 | −18 |
| 18 |  Grastorps |
11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9 | .409 | 25 | 47 | −22 |
| 19 |  Nykoping |
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 | .409 | 15 | 43 | −28 |
| 20 |  Grums |
10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | .300 | 24 | 41 | −17 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
- Play Out
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Mariestad host Boras in the HockeyEttan Sodra on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.