Merrimack Warriors vs Connecticut Huskies prediction
Chance to win · 57% and 24% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 67%Full game
- 1X2WonMerrimackodds down 2.17Confidence 60%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.33Confidence 71%
- HandicapWonUConn +1.5odds down 1.41Confidence 61%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMerrimack1.65Confidence 70%
- Double chanceWonMerrimack or drawodds down 1.49Confidence 78%
- Draw no betWonMerrimackodds down 1.70Confidence 72%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 86%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMerrimack2.55Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.76Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Merrimack 3–2
UConn Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min5–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–19%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Season so far
This seasonMerrimack Warriors
Connecticut Huskies
Head-to-head
Merrimack 1–4
UConn - Oct 31, 2026: Merrimack Warriors 5, Connecticut Huskies 6, after a shootout.
- Mar 21, 2026: Connecticut Huskies 1, Merrimack Warriors 2.
- Dec 6, 2025: Connecticut Huskies 5, Merrimack Warriors 2.
- Dec 5, 2025: Merrimack Warriors 0, Connecticut Huskies 3.
- Nov 1, 2025: Connecticut Huskies 5, Merrimack Warriors 1.
Last five games
Merrimack
5-0-0 - Win, 6–3 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Oct 24. Odds: Notre Dame 3.05, Merrimack 1.88.
- Win, 2–1 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Notre Dame 2.95, Merrimack 1.90.
- Win, 8–2 against Minnesota State Mavericks, Oct 17. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.60.
- Win, 4–3 against Minnesota State Mavericks, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.67.
- Win, 4–3 against New Hampshire Wildcats, after a shootout, Oct 8.
UConn
2-2-1 - Loss, 3–6 at Boston University Terriers, Oct 24. Odds: Boston Univ. 1.88, UConn 3.05.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Boston University Terriers, after overtime, Oct 23.
- Win, 5–4 against Boston University Terriers, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: UConn 2.65, Boston Univ. 2.15.
- Loss, 1–4 against Colorado College Tigers, Oct 17. Odds: UConn 2.30, Colorado Coll. 2.18.
- Win, 3–2 against Colorado College Tigers, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: UConn 2.15, Colorado Coll. 2.32.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- 5-game winning streak for Merrimack Warriors coming into this game.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Connecticut Huskies.
- 6.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
- 5th vs 2nd in the NCAA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MER) | 2.10 | 2.10 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.05 | 4.05 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (CON) | 2.65 | 2.65 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap MER | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Hockey East
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston University Terriers |
28 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 2.018 | 0 |
| 2 | Connecticut Huskies |
30 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 1.633 | 0 |
| 3 |  Massachusetts Lowell |
28 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1.321 | 0 |
| 4 |  Northeastern Huskies |
29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 1.552 | 0 |
| 5 | Merrimack Warriors |
29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 82 | 1.414 | 0 |
| 6 |  Providence Friars |
30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 92 | 1.533 | 0 |
| 7 |  Maine Black Bears |
29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1.310 | 0 |
| 8 |  Massachusetts Minutemen |
27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 1.407 | 0 |
| 9 |  Boston College Eagles |
28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1.339 | 0 |
| 10 |  New Hampshire Wildcats |
30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 1.117 | 0 |
| 11 |  Vermont Catamounts |
29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 56 | .966 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Merrimack Warriors host Connecticut Huskies in the NCAA on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.