Merrimack Warriors vs Minnesota State Mavericks prediction
Chance to win · 48% and 31% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostMerrimack2.05Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU5.51.80Confidence 53%
- HandicapWonMinnesota State +1.51.40Confidence 62%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMerrimack1.65Confidence 55%
- Double chanceWonMerrimack or draw1.35Confidence 65%
- Draw no betPushMerrimack1.57Confidence 57%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesConfidence 82%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMerrimack2.57Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5Confidence 73%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 2 games.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Merrimack 3–2
Minnesota State Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min3–34%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period1–118%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 1-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 2-1 (3%)
Season so far
This seasonMerrimack Warriors
Minnesota State Mavericks
Head-to-head
Merrimack 2–1
Minnesota State - Oct 17, 2026: Merrimack Warriors 8, Minnesota State Mavericks 2.
- Oct 12, 2024: Minnesota State Mavericks 4, Merrimack Warriors 1.
- Oct 11, 2024: Minnesota State Mavericks 0, Merrimack Warriors 1.
Last five games
Merrimack
3-2-0 - Win, 4–3 against New Hampshire Wildcats, after a shootout, Oct 8.
- Loss, 3–6 at Quinnipiac Bobcats, Oct 3.
- Loss, 0–3 at North Dakota Fighting Hawks, Mar 26.
- Win, 2–1 at Connecticut Huskies, Mar 21.
- Win, 2–0 at Massachusetts Minutemen, Mar 20.
Minnesota State
2-3-0 - Loss, 1–4 against Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 10.
- Loss, 0–4 against Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 9. Odds: Minnesota State 3.15, Wisconsin 1.93.
- Loss, 1–3 at Western Michigan Broncos, Mar 27.
- Win, 4–1 against St. Thomas Tommies, Mar 20.
- Win, 7–2 against Michigan Tech Huskies, Mar 14.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Minnesota State Mavericks coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 7 days off for Merrimack Warriors, 5 for Minnesota State Mavericks.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Merrimack Warriors.
- 5.3 goals per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MER) | 1.95 | 1.95 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.55 | 3.55 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (MSM) | 2.67 | 2.67 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap MER | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Hockey East
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston University Terriers |
28 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 2.018 | 0 |
| 2 |  Connecticut Huskies |
30 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 1.633 | 0 |
| 3 |  Massachusetts Lowell |
28 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1.321 | 0 |
| 4 |  Northeastern Huskies |
29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 1.552 | 0 |
| 5 | Merrimack Warriors |
29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 82 | 1.414 | 0 |
| 6 |  Providence Friars |
30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 92 | 1.533 | 0 |
| 7 |  Maine Black Bears |
29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1.310 | 0 |
| 8 |  Massachusetts Minutemen |
27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 1.407 | 0 |
| 9 |  Boston College Eagles |
28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1.339 | 0 |
| 10 |  New Hampshire Wildcats |
30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 1.117 | 0 |
| 11 |  Vermont Catamounts |
29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 56 | .966 | 0 |
NCAA · CCHA
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota State Mavericks |
30 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 2 |  Michigan Tech Huskies |
32 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 1.406 | 0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green Falcons |
30 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 1.683 | 0 |
| 4 |  Ferris State Bulldogs |
29 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 1.293 | 0 |
| 5 |  Bemidji State Beavers |
30 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1.350 | 0 |
| 6 |  Northern Michigan Wildcats |
28 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1.393 | 0 |
| 7 |  St. Thomas Tommies |
31 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 75 | 1.210 | 0 |
| 8 |  Lake Superior State Lakers |
30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 1.017 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Merrimack Warriors host Minnesota State Mavericks in the NCAA on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.