Merrimack Warriors vs Minnesota State Mavericks prediction
Chance to win · 48% and 31% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonMerrimackodds down 2.07Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU5.51.98Confidence 54%
- HandicapLostMinnesota State +1.51.42Confidence 63%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMerrimackodds down 1.65Confidence 57%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonMerrimack or drawodds down 1.37Confidence 66%
- Draw no betWonMerrimackodds down 1.60Confidence 59%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.08Confidence 85%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonMerrimackodds down 2.55Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostU2.5Confidence 78%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 3 games; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Merrimack 3–2
Minnesota State Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min8–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period4–018%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 1-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 2-1 (3%)
Season so far
This seasonMerrimack Warriors
Minnesota State Mavericks
Head-to-head
Merrimack 2–1
Minnesota State - Oct 16, 2026: Merrimack Warriors 4, Minnesota State Mavericks 3, after overtime.
- Oct 12, 2024: Minnesota State Mavericks 4, Merrimack Warriors 1.
- Oct 11, 2024: Minnesota State Mavericks 0, Merrimack Warriors 1.
Last five games
Merrimack
3-2-0 - Win, 4–3 against Minnesota State Mavericks, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.67.
- Win, 4–3 against New Hampshire Wildcats, after a shootout, Oct 8.
- Loss, 3–6 at Quinnipiac Bobcats, Oct 3.
- Loss, 0–3 at North Dakota Fighting Hawks, Mar 26.
- Win, 2–1 at Connecticut Huskies, Mar 21.
Minnesota State
1-3-1 - Overtime loss, 3–4 at Merrimack Warriors, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.67.
- Loss, 1–4 against Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 10.
- Loss, 0–4 against Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 9. Odds: Minnesota State 3.15, Wisconsin 1.93.
- Loss, 1–3 at Western Michigan Broncos, Mar 27.
- Win, 4–1 against St. Thomas Tommies, Mar 20.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Merrimack Warriors and Minnesota State Mavericks played yesterday.
- 4-game losing streak for Minnesota State Mavericks coming into this game.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Merrimack Warriors.
- 4.3 goals per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MER) | 1.95 | 1.95 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.65 | 3.65 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (MSM) | 2.60 | 2.60 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap MER | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Hockey East
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston University Terriers |
28 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 2.018 | 0 |
| 2 |  Connecticut Huskies |
30 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 1.633 | 0 |
| 3 |  Massachusetts Lowell |
28 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1.321 | 0 |
| 4 |  Northeastern Huskies |
29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 1.552 | 0 |
| 5 | Merrimack Warriors |
29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 82 | 1.414 | 0 |
| 6 |  Providence Friars |
30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 92 | 1.533 | 0 |
| 7 |  Maine Black Bears |
29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1.310 | 0 |
| 8 |  Massachusetts Minutemen |
27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 1.407 | 0 |
| 9 |  Boston College Eagles |
28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1.339 | 0 |
| 10 |  New Hampshire Wildcats |
30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 1.117 | 0 |
| 11 |  Vermont Catamounts |
29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 56 | .966 | 0 |
NCAA · CCHA
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota State Mavericks |
30 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 2 |  Michigan Tech Huskies |
32 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 1.406 | 0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green Falcons |
30 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 1.683 | 0 |
| 4 |  Ferris State Bulldogs |
29 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 1.293 | 0 |
| 5 |  Bemidji State Beavers |
30 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1.350 | 0 |
| 6 |  Northern Michigan Wildcats |
28 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1.393 | 0 |
| 7 |  St. Thomas Tommies |
31 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 75 | 1.210 | 0 |
| 8 |  Lake Superior State Lakers |
30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 1.017 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Merrimack Warriors host Minnesota State Mavericks in the NCAA on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.