Michigan Wolverines vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Chance to win · 86% and 5% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks · Average confidence 78%Full game
- 1X2Michigan1.23Confidence 84%
- Over/UnderO5.51.40Confidence 72%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapMichigan -1.51.37Confidence 73%
- Winner (incl. OT)MichiganConfidence 87%
- Double chanceMichigan or draw1.07Confidence 89%
- Draw no betMichigan1.08Confidence 89%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)Yes1.10Confidence 83%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2MichiganConfidence 62%
- 1st period Over/UnderO1.5Confidence 61%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Michigan 5–2
Penn State Score details
- Correct score5–26%chance
- 1st period correct score2–015%chance
- Highest scoring period3rd period32%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 5-2
- By period 2-0, 1-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 5-2 (6%), 5-1 (5%), 6-1 (4%)
Season so far
This seasonMichigan Wolverines
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head-to-head
Michigan 4–1
Penn State - Mar 14, 2026: Michigan Wolverines 5, Penn State Nittany Lions 2.
- Feb 14, 2026: Michigan Wolverines 6, Penn State Nittany Lions 3.
- Feb 13, 2026: Michigan Wolverines 5, Penn State Nittany Lions 4, after a shootout.
- Nov 15, 2025: Penn State Nittany Lions 4, Michigan Wolverines 2.
- Nov 14, 2025: Penn State Nittany Lions 1, Michigan Wolverines 7.
Last five games
Michigan
4-1-0 - Win, 5–4 at Ohio State Buckeyes, after overtime, Nov 1. Odds: Ohio State 7.60, Michigan 1.26.
- Loss, 2–5 at Ohio State Buckeyes, Oct 31. Odds: Ohio State 7.10, Michigan 1.30.
- Win, 3–2 against Western Michigan Broncos, Oct 23. Odds: Michigan 1.80, W. Michigan 3.35.
- Win, 4–3 at Denver Pioneers, Oct 17. Odds: Denver 2.55, Michigan 1.98.
- Win, 4–1 at Denver Pioneers, Oct 16. Odds: Denver 2.12, Michigan 2.32.
Penn State
2-1-2 - Loss, 2–4 against Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Nov 7. Odds: Penn State 1.80, Notre Dame 3.30.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Notre Dame Fighting Irish, after overtime, Nov 6. Odds: Penn State 1.80, Notre Dame 3.30.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Minnesota Golden Gophers, after overtime, Oct 31. Odds: Minnesota 1.67, Penn State 3.50.
- Win, 2–1 at Minnesota Golden Gophers, after a shootout, Oct 30. Odds: Minnesota 1.76, Penn State 3.10.
- Win, 3–2 against Canisius Golden Griffins, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Penn State 1.50, Canisius 4.80.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Penn State Nittany Lions coming into this game.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Michigan Wolverines.
- +3.0 goals at home — Michigan Wolverines averaged 6.8 at home and 3.8 away this season.
- −0.9 goals away — Penn State Nittany Lions averaged 3.2 at home and 2.3 away this season.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Michigan Wolverines.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MIC) | 1.20 | 1.22 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 5.80 | 5.80 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (PSN) | 9.00 | 8.50 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap MIC | −2.5 | −2.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Big Ten
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Golden Gophers |
30 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 2.033 | 0 |
| 2 | Michigan Wolverines |
30 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 2.050 | 0 |
| 3 | Penn State Nittany Lions |
30 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 4 |  Ohio State Buckeyes |
29 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 1.603 | 0 |
| 5 |  Michigan State Spartans |
32 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 1.438 | 0 |
| 6 |  Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 1.133 | 0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin Badgers |
30 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1.233 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Michigan Wolverines host Penn State Nittany Lions in the NCAA on Friday, November 13, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.