Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Minnesota Wild 3–, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
AOT
Puck drop 20:00 ET
1X2 2.851X2 2.05
Grand Casino Arena (Saint Paul, MN) · USAGrand Casino Arena (Saint Paul, MN)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OT
MIN
2
0
1
0
TBL
0
1
2
1
53%Minnesota win · 41% in regulationMIN
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
47%Tampa Bay win · 36% in regulationTBL
Chance to win · 41% and 36% in regulation
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Over/Under
Won
O4.5
odds down 1.33
Confidence70%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostWildodds up 2.75Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.33Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonWild +1.5odds up 1.43Confidence 64%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostWildodds up 2.09Confidence 54%
- Double chanceWonWild or drawodds up 1.60Confidence 67%
- Draw no betPushWildodds up 2.12Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.07Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonWildodds down 2.95Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.71Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 6% since they opened; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; the odds drifted 5% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Wild 4–1
Lightning
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Went to overtime
Minnesota to winTo win
53%
TBL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–1After 60 min3–34%chance
- 1st period correct scoreWon2–01st period2–07%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-1
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-1 (4%), 5-2 (4%), 4-2 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Minnesota Wild
Tampa Bay Lightning
Minnesota Wild
Tampa Bay Lightning
Season recordMinnesota Wild 12-3-3Tampa Bay Lightning 10-3-2
Home / road splitMinnesota Wild 5-0-1Tampa Bay Lightning 2-3-2
StreakMinnesota Wild W3Tampa Bay Lightning W2
RestMinnesota Wild Back-to-backTampa Bay Lightning 1 day
Goals forMinnesota Wild 3.3Tampa Bay Lightning 3.7
Goals againstMinnesota Wild 2.2Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1
In the standingsMinnesota Wild 1stTampa Bay Lightning 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameMinnesota Wild +1.5Tampa Bay Lightning +0.7
Goals forMinnesota Wild 3.4Tampa Bay Lightning 4.0
Goals againstMinnesota Wild 1.9Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3
Shots on goalMinnesota Wild 30.6Tampa Bay Lightning 30.1
Shots againstMinnesota Wild 23.8Tampa Bay Lightning 24.8
Shooting %Minnesota Wild 11.1%Tampa Bay Lightning 13.3%
Save %Minnesota Wild 92.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 87.5%
Power-play %Minnesota Wild 19.1%Tampa Bay Lightning 18.9%
Penalty kill %Minnesota Wild 78.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 82.4%
Faceoff %Minnesota Wild 47.4%Tampa Bay Lightning 50.1%
Penalty minutesMinnesota Wild 7.5Tampa Bay Lightning 7.4
HitsMinnesota Wild 24.5Tampa Bay Lightning 20.6
Blocked shotsMinnesota Wild 14.6Tampa Bay Lightning 15.3
Per game · MIN at home, TBL away
Goal differential per gameMinnesota Wild +1.4Tampa Bay Lightning −0.4
Goals forMinnesota Wild 3.7Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0
Goals againstMinnesota Wild 2.3Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4
Shots on goalMinnesota Wild 29.4Tampa Bay Lightning 25.7
Shots againstMinnesota Wild 27.4Tampa Bay Lightning 26.4
Shooting %Minnesota Wild 12.6%Tampa Bay Lightning 11.7%
Save %Minnesota Wild 92.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 88.3%
Power-play %Minnesota Wild 26.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.7%
Penalty kill %Minnesota Wild 76.7%Tampa Bay Lightning 86.7%
Faceoff %Minnesota Wild 48.1%Tampa Bay Lightning 47.1%
Penalty minutesMinnesota Wild 6.1Tampa Bay Lightning 9.6
HitsMinnesota Wild 28.1Tampa Bay Lightning 24.9
Blocked shotsMinnesota Wild 14.0Tampa Bay Lightning 17.4
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Wild 3–2
Lightning
Goals a gameGoals
6.8
MIN 3.8 · TBL 3.0
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Oct 8, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Minnesota Wild 2.
- Mar 24, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Minnesota Wild 3.
- Mar 3, 2026: Minnesota Wild 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.
- Nov 1, 2024: Minnesota Wild 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.
- Oct 24, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Minnesota Wild 4.
Last five games
Wild
4-0-1 - Win, 4–1 against San Jose Sharks, Nov 6. Odds: Wild 1.53, Sharks 4.50.
- Win, 4–2 at Philadelphia Flyers, Nov 3. Odds: Flyers 3.50, Wild 1.83.
- Win, 5–1 at Washington Capitals, Nov 1. Odds: Capitals 2.45, Wild 2.35.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against New York Islanders, after overtime, Oct 29. Odds: Wild 1.89, Islanders 3.40.
- Win, 3–1 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 27. Odds: Mammoth 2.25, Wild 2.55.
Lightning
3-0-2 - Win, 4–1 against Chicago Blackhawks, Nov 5. Odds: Lightning 1.30, Blackhawks 7.50.
- Win, 4–2 against Detroit Red Wings, Nov 3. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Red Wings 4.90.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Predators 3.30, Lightning 1.86.
- Win, 6–4 against Winnipeg Jets, Oct 29. Odds: Lightning 1.67, Jets 3.90.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Lightning 2.90.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-0
- 00:55 Goal Minnesota Wild: Coleman B. assists: Maatta O., Hughes Q. 1-0
- 01:46 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: — Too many men on the ice
- 02:58 Goal PPG Minnesota Wild: Shabanov M. assists: Eriksson Ek J., Kaprizov K. 2-0
- 09:42 5 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Sabourin S. Fighting
- 09:42 5 min Minnesota Wild: Foligno M. Fighting
- 09:42 2 min Minnesota Wild: Foligno N. Roughing
- 17:24 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Truchon-Viel J. Interference
2nd period0-1
- 01:14 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. Slashing
- 05:53 2 min Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov K. Cross checking
- 05:53 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Moser J.J. Cross checking
- 12:56 2 min Minnesota Wild: Hartman R. Roughing
- 12:56 2 min Minnesota Wild: Hartman R. Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 16:34 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. assists: D'Astous C., Kucherov N. 2-1
- 17:23 2 min Minnesota Wild: Hughes Q. High sticking
3rd period1-2
- 06:49 Goal Minnesota Wild: Shabanov M. 3-1
- 13:44 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. assists: Point B., D'Astous C. 3-2
- 14:37 2 min Minnesota Wild: Coleman B. Holding
- 16:29 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. assists: Carlson J., Point B. 3-3
Overtime0-1
- 02:30 2 min Minnesota Wild: Boldy M. Tripping
- 03:23 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. assists: Guentzel J., Carlson J. 3-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Minnesota Wild, who played yesterday.
- 3-game winning streak for Minnesota Wild coming into this game.
- 5-0-1 at home for Minnesota Wild this season.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Minnesota Wild.
- Save % gap: Minnesota Wild 92.0%, Tampa Bay Lightning 87.5% over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MIN) | 2.85 | 2.85 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.20 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TBL) | 2.05 | 2.05 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap MIN | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Minnesota Wild host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.