Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction
Montreal Canadiens 5–, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 odds up 2.201X2 odds down 2.60
Bell Centre (Montreal, QC) · USABell Centre (Montreal, QC)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
MTL
2
3
0
PIT
2
1
1
57%Montreal win · 46% in regulationMTL
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
43%Pittsburgh win · 32% in regulationPIT
Chance to win · 46% and 32% in regulation
Fowler J.StartedSV 94.2% · GAA 1.60 · 8-2-0
Murashov S.StartedSV 88.8% · GAA 2.90 · 2-5-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Penguins +2.5
odds down 1.26
Confidence71%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2WonCanadiensodds up 2.05Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.5odds up 1.40Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonPenguins +2.5odds down 1.26Confidence 71%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonCanadiensodds up 1.65Confidence 59%
- Double chanceWonCanadiens or drawodds up 1.36Confidence 70%
- Draw no betWonCanadiensodds up 1.60Confidence 61%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostCanadiensodds up 2.48Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.66Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Canadiens 4–2
Penguins
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Decided in regulation
Montreal to winTo win
57%
MTL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min5–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period2–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 3-1 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Montreal Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins
Montreal Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins
Season recordMontreal Canadiens 8-3-2Pittsburgh Penguins 5-6-2
Home / road splitMontreal Canadiens 3-2-1Pittsburgh Penguins 1-5-1
StreakMontreal Canadiens W4Pittsburgh Penguins L1
RestMontreal Canadiens 1 dayPittsburgh Penguins 1 day
Goals forMontreal Canadiens 3.3Pittsburgh Penguins 3.3
Goals againstMontreal Canadiens 2.9Pittsburgh Penguins 3.4
In the standingsMontreal Canadiens 3rdPittsburgh Penguins 16th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameMontreal Canadiens +0.5Pittsburgh Penguins −0.8
Goals forMontreal Canadiens 2.9Pittsburgh Penguins 2.7
Goals againstMontreal Canadiens 2.4Pittsburgh Penguins 3.5
Shots on goalMontreal Canadiens 28.8Pittsburgh Penguins 26.7
Shots againstMontreal Canadiens 26.5Pittsburgh Penguins 28.0
Shooting %Montreal Canadiens 10.1%Pittsburgh Penguins 10.1%
Save %Montreal Canadiens 91.7%Pittsburgh Penguins 88.2%
Power-play %Montreal Canadiens 8.6%Pittsburgh Penguins 10.3%
Penalty kill %Montreal Canadiens 87.2%Pittsburgh Penguins 82.1%
Faceoff %Montreal Canadiens 50.3%Pittsburgh Penguins 45.3%
Penalty minutesMontreal Canadiens 10.2Pittsburgh Penguins 6.1
HitsMontreal Canadiens 19.3Pittsburgh Penguins 10.8
Blocked shotsMontreal Canadiens 14.2Pittsburgh Penguins 15.0
Per game · MTL at home, PIT away
Goal differential per gameMontreal Canadiens −1.6Pittsburgh Penguins −0.7
Goals forMontreal Canadiens 2.3Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9
Goals againstMontreal Canadiens 3.9Pittsburgh Penguins 3.6
Shots on goalMontreal Canadiens 27.3Pittsburgh Penguins 28.4
Shots againstMontreal Canadiens 29.1Pittsburgh Penguins 28.0
Shooting %Montreal Canadiens 8.4%Pittsburgh Penguins 10.2%
Save %Montreal Canadiens 88.3%Pittsburgh Penguins 88.2%
Power-play %Montreal Canadiens 11.5%Pittsburgh Penguins 18.2%
Penalty kill %Montreal Canadiens 80.3%Pittsburgh Penguins 82.9%
Faceoff %Montreal Canadiens 50.1%Pittsburgh Penguins 42.9%
Penalty minutesMontreal Canadiens 18.2Pittsburgh Penguins 8.5
HitsMontreal Canadiens 22.4Pittsburgh Penguins 18.2
Blocked shotsMontreal Canadiens 17.3Pittsburgh Penguins 12.6
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Canadiens 3–2
Penguins
Goals a gameGoals
6.2
MTL 3.6 · PIT 2.6
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
2 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
3 of 5
1 in overtime · 2 in a shootout
- Oct 3, 2026: Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Montreal Canadiens 5, after overtime.
- Dec 21, 2025: Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montreal Canadiens 3, after a shootout.
- Dec 20, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0.
- Dec 11, 2025: Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Montreal Canadiens 4.
- Sep 22, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1, after a shootout.
Last five games
Canadiens
4-0-1 - Win, 5–2 at Dallas Stars, Oct 29. Odds: Stars 1.96, Canadiens 3.19.
- Win, 2–0 at St. Louis Blues, Oct 27. Odds: Blues 2.60, Canadiens 2.25.
- Win, 2–1 at Winnipeg Jets, Oct 25. Odds: Jets 2.55, Canadiens 2.30.
- Win, 4–1 at Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 23. Odds: Blackhawks 3.20, Canadiens 1.91.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against San Jose Sharks, after overtime, Oct 20. Odds: Canadiens 1.70, Sharks 3.70.
Penguins
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 3–4 against Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Oct 29. Odds: Penguins 2.85, Mammoth 2.05.
- Win, 3–2 against Nashville Predators, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Penguins 2.15, Predators 2.65.
- Win, 4–0 against Florida Panthers, Oct 22. Odds: Penguins 2.45, Panthers 2.30.
- Loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 19. Odds: Mammoth 1.76, Penguins 3.50.
- Loss, 2–6 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 17. Odds: Golden Knights 1.72, Penguins 3.55.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-2
- 01:21 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Dobson N. Tripping
- 02:08 Goal PPG Pittsburgh Penguins: Karlsson E. assists: Crosby S., Novak T. 0-1
- 02:41 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Kapanen O. assists: Beck O., Xhekaj F. 1-1
- 03:05 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. assists: Kreider C. 2-1
- 07:28 Goal Pittsburgh Penguins: Novak T. assists: Rakell R., Crosby S. 2-2
- 09:05 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Xhekaj F. Roughing
- 09:05 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Koivunen V. Roughing
- 12:59 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Malkin E. Tripping
2nd period3-1
- 01:54 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Texier A. assists: Hutson L., Danault P. 3-2
- 02:21 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Kreider C. assists: Xhekaj A., Anderson J. 4-2
- 03:45 Goal Pittsburgh Penguins: Rakell R. assists: Karlsson E. 4-3
- 09:24 5 min Montreal Canadiens: Beck O. Fighting
- 09:24 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Kapanen O. Tripping
- 09:24 5 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Lizotte B. Fighting
- 13:06 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. assists: Hutson L., Evans J. 5-3
- 17:12 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby S. Tripping
3rd period0-1
- 07:08 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Korczak K. Interference
- 12:01 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Xhekaj F. Cross checking
- 16:49 Goal Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby S. assists: Karlsson E. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Montreal Canadiens coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Pittsburgh Penguins dropped from 2.25 to 2.02 since they were first published.
- 1-5-1 away for Pittsburgh Penguins this season.
- In goal: Fowler J. for Montreal Canadiens (8-2-0 in the last 10 starts), Murashov S. for Pittsburgh Penguins (2-5-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.3 per game — Montreal Canadiens +0.5, Pittsburgh Penguins −0.8 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MTL) | 2.15 | 2.20 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (PIT) | 2.65 | 2.60 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap MTL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 |  Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Montreal Canadiens host Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.