Nitra vs Rögle Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

O4.5 1.42

Confidence68%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%

Full game

1X2LostRogleodds up 1.47Confidence 62%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.42Confidence 68%
HandicapLostRogle -1.5odds up 1.83Confidence 59%
Winner (incl. OT)LostRogleodds up 1.59Confidence 66%
Double chanceLostRogle or drawodds up 1.12Confidence 69%
Draw no betLostRogleodds up 1.52Confidence 68%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.12Confidence 85%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostRogleodds up 1.99Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.86Confidence 54%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the teams play in different competitions; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Nitra 14

Rogle

Final 5–1

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 6

Draw after 60 minDraw 15% Decided in regulation

ROG to winTo win 79% NIT won

Score details

Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min5–16%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period0–011%chance
Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 5 goals30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 1-4
By period 0-2, 0-0, 1-2
Likeliest 1-4 (6%), 2-5 (5%), 2-4 (5%)

The two teams play in different competitions, so this projection leans on less.

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record2-3-03-2-0

Home / road split0-2-00-2-0

StreakW1L1

Rest1 day2 days

Goals for2.02.4

Goals against3.61.4

In the standings16th12th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game−1.1+0.7

Goals for2.42.7

Goals against3.52.0

Shots on goal31.827.1

Shots against26.225.2

Shooting %7.5%10.0%

Save %87.4%92.5%

Power-play %16.1%6.5%

Penalty kill %84.6%91.7%

Faceoff %48.6%49.6%

Penalty minutes7.87.2

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Last five games

Nitra 2-3-0

Win, 3–0 against Spisska Nova Ves, Oct 11.
Loss, 2–5 at Dukla Trencin, Oct 9. Odds: Trencin 2.38, Nitra 2.40.
Loss, 1–6 at Fribourg, Oct 6.
Win, 2–1 against Zvolen, after overtime, Oct 4.
Loss, 5–6 at Michalovce, Oct 2.

Rogle 3-2-0

Loss, 2–3 at Skellefteå, Oct 10. Odds: Skellefteå 1.87, Rögle 3.40.
Win, 4–3 against HV 71, Oct 8.
Win, 3–2 against Davos, Oct 6.
Loss, 2–3 at Vaxjo, Oct 3.
Win, 4–1 against Timrå, Oct 1.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-0

00:32 2 min Rögle: LaDue P. Tripping
02:27 2 min Nitra: Holesinsky A. Interference

2nd period1-0

09:31 Goal Nitra: Jackson R. assists: Paulovic M., Osburn Z. 1-0
17:33 2 min Rögle: Kuhlman K. Interference

3rd period4-1

03:30 2 min Rögle: Kellman J. High sticking
04:52 Goal PPG Nitra: Pollock B. assists: Jackson R., Osburn Z. 2-0
06:07 Goal PPG Nitra: Hrnka T. assists: Timashov D., Chrenko T. 3-0
07:05 Goal PPG Nitra: Hrnka T. assists: Rantakari O., Jurusik M. 4-0
08:12 Goal Rögle: Bartholdsson N. assists: Elisson V., Kuhlman K. 4-1
16:19 Goal ENG Nitra: Chrenko T. assists: Timashov D., Hrnka T. 5-1

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Odds moved: the odds on Nitra dropped from 3.55 to 2.20 since they were first published.
In goal: Jurusik M. for Nitra, Clang C. for Rögle (5-1-0 in the last 6 starts).
Goal differential gap of 1.8 per game — Nitra −1.1, Rögle +0.7 over their recent games.
Save % gap: Nitra 87.4%, Rögle 92.5% over their recent games.
16th vs 12th in the Champions Hockey League standings.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (NIT)	2.72	2.72	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.48	4.48	No change
1X2: 2 (ROG)	2.06	2.06	No change
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap NIT	+1.5	+0.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

Champions Hockey League standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Plzen	5	5	0	0	15	1.500	24	9	+15
2	Skelleftea	6	5	1	0	15	1.250	24	12	+12
3	Pardubice	6	5	1	0	14	1.167	22	9	+13
4	Kolner	5	5	0	0	14	1.400	21	9	+12
5	Frolunda	6	4	1	1	12	1.000	28	14	+14
6	Adler Mannheim	6	4	2	0	11	.917	20	20	0
7	Tappara	6	3	1	2	11	.917	19	18	+1
8	Vaxjo	6	3	2	1	10	.833	16	11	+5
9	SaiPa	5	3	1	1	10	1.000	16	14	+2
10	KooKoo	6	3	2	1	10	.833	20	19	+1
11	Fribourg	5	3	2	0	9	.900	18	12	+6
12	Rogle	6	3	3	0	9	.750	13	12	+1
13	Servette	5	3	2	0	9	.900	12	11	+1
14	Eisbaren Berlin	5	3	2	0	9	.900	14	19	−5
15	Davos	5	3	2	0	8	.800	19	15	+4
16	Nitra	6	3	3	0	8	.667	15	19	−4
17	Liberec	5	3	2	0	7	.700	14	14	0
18	Storhamar	5	2	2	1	6	.600	11	13	−2
19	Bordeaux	6	1	4	1	4	.333	16	35	−19
20	Salzburg	6	1	5	0	3	.250	13	24	−11
21	Klagenfurt	5	1	4	0	2	.200	8	14	−6
22	Herning Blue Fox	5	0	4	1	1	.100	6	19	−13
23	Tychy	6	0	5	1	1	.083	10	24	−14
24	Graz99ers	5	0	5	0	0	.000	8	21	−13

Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Nitra vs Rögle prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details