Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Merrimack Warriors Prediction & Picks

NCAA Friday, October 23, 2026Fri · Oct 23

HomeNotre Dame Fighting IrishDame Fighting Irish12-0-16th in the standingsLLWWL

12 AOT Puck drop 19:00 ET 2.951.90

1st 2nd 3rd OT

NDF 0 1 0 0

MER 1 0 0 1

USAUSA

AwayMerrimack Warriors16-4-15th in the standingsWWWLL

45%Notre Dame Fighting Irish win · 35% in regulationNDF Overtime or shootout · 20%OT / SO 20% 55%Merrimack Warriors win · 45% in regulationMER

Chance to win · 35% and 45% in regulation

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Lost

O4.5 1.31

Confidence71%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%

Full game

1X2LostMerrimackodds down 1.91Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostO4.51.31Confidence 71%
HandicapWonNotre Dame +1.51.47Confidence 65%
Winner (incl. OT)WonMerrimackodds down 1.56Confidence 55%
Double chanceWonMerrimack or drawodds up 1.32Confidence 66%
Draw no betPushMerrimackodds down 1.52Confidence 57%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 88%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonMerrimackodds down 2.40Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderLostO1.51.74Confidence 54%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 4 games; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Notre Dame 23

Merrimack

Final 1–2

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 3

Draw after 60 minDraw 20% Went to overtime

MER to winTo win 55% MER won

Score details

Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min1–14%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period0–18%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd31%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 2-3
By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
Likeliest 2-3 (4%), 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%)

Last five games

Notre Dame 2-3-0

Loss, 0–4 against Western Michigan Broncos, Oct 17. Odds: Notre Dame 4.45, W. Michigan 1.42.
Loss, 1–6 at Western Michigan Broncos, Oct 16. Odds: W. Michigan 1.40, Notre Dame 4.60.
Win, 4–0 against Niagara Purple Eagles, Oct 9.
Win, 3–1 against Niagara Purple Eagles, Oct 8.
Loss, 1–6 at Michigan Wolverines, Mar 11.

Merrimack 3-2-0

Win, 8–2 against Minnesota State Mavericks, Oct 17. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.60.
Win, 4–3 against Minnesota State Mavericks, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.67.
Win, 4–3 against New Hampshire Wildcats, after a shootout, Oct 8.
Loss, 3–6 at Quinnipiac Bobcats, Oct 3.
Loss, 0–3 at North Dakota Fighting Hawks, Mar 26.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (NDF)	2.95	2.95	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.15	4.15	No change
1X2: 2 (MER)	1.90	1.90	No change
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap NDF	+1.5	+1.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

NCAA standings

NCAA · Big Ten

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%
1	Minnesota Golden Gophers	30	21	3	1	122	2.033
2	Michigan Wolverines	30	20	2	0	123	2.050
3	Penn State Nittany Lions	30	19	2	0	105	1.750
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	29	16	0	0	93	1.603
5	Michigan State Spartans	32	15	2	0	92	1.438
6	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	30	12	0	1	68	1.133
7	Wisconsin Badgers	30	11	0	0	74	1.233

NCAA · Hockey East

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%
1	Boston University Terriers	28	20	0	0	113	2.018
2	Connecticut Huskies	30	18	2	0	98	1.633
3	Massachusetts Lowell	28	15	1	2	74	1.321
4	Northeastern Huskies	29	13	2	0	90	1.552
5	Merrimack Warriors	29	16	4	1	82	1.414
6	Providence Friars	30	13	2	1	92	1.533
7	Maine Black Bears	29	13	1	1	76	1.310
8	Massachusetts Minutemen	27	10	3	0	76	1.407
9	Boston College Eagles	28	10	1	2	75	1.339
10	New Hampshire Wildcats	30	11	3	0	67	1.117
11	Vermont Catamounts	29	9	2	1	56	.966

Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish host Merrimack Warriors in the NCAA on Friday, October 23, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.