Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Merrimack Warriors prediction
Chance to win · 35% and 44% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonMerrimackodds down 1.95Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO5.5odds down 1.65Confidence 55%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapLostNotre Dame +1.51.47Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMerrimackodds down 1.60Confidence 56%
- Double chanceWonMerrimack or draw1.34Confidence 67%
- Draw no betWonMerrimackodds down 1.53Confidence 58%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMerrimackodds down 2.45Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5Confidence 76%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Notre Dame 3–4
Merrimack Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–4After 60 min3–62%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–11st period2–017%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 4 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-4
- By period 0-1, 1-1, 2-2
- Likeliest 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%), 5-6 (0%)
Season so far
This seasonNotre Dame Fighting Irish
Merrimack Warriors
Head-to-head
Notre Dame 1–1
Merrimack - Oct 23, 2026: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1, Merrimack Warriors 2, after overtime.
- Nov 26, 2025: Merrimack Warriors 4, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5.
Last five games
Notre Dame
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 1–2 against Merrimack Warriors, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Notre Dame 2.95, Merrimack 1.90.
- Loss, 0–4 against Western Michigan Broncos, Oct 17. Odds: Notre Dame 4.45, W. Michigan 1.42.
- Loss, 1–6 at Western Michigan Broncos, Oct 16. Odds: W. Michigan 1.40, Notre Dame 4.60.
- Win, 4–0 against Niagara Purple Eagles, Oct 9.
- Win, 3–1 against Niagara Purple Eagles, Oct 8.
Merrimack
4-1-0 - Win, 2–1 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Notre Dame 2.95, Merrimack 1.90.
- Win, 8–2 against Minnesota State Mavericks, Oct 17. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.60.
- Win, 4–3 against Minnesota State Mavericks, after overtime, Oct 16. Odds: Merrimack 1.95, Minnesota State 2.67.
- Win, 4–3 against New Hampshire Wildcats, after a shootout, Oct 8.
- Loss, 3–6 at Quinnipiac Bobcats, Oct 3.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Merrimack Warriors played yesterday.
- 4-game winning streak for Merrimack Warriors coming into this game.
- 3-game losing streak for Notre Dame Fighting Irish coming into this game.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (NDF) | 3.05 | 3.05 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (MER) | 1.88 | 1.88 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap NDF | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Big Ten
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Golden Gophers |
30 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 2.033 | 0 |
| 2 |  Michigan Wolverines |
30 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 2.050 | 0 |
| 3 |  Penn State Nittany Lions |
30 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 4 |  Ohio State Buckeyes |
29 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 1.603 | 0 |
| 5 |  Michigan State Spartans |
32 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 1.438 | 0 |
| 6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 1.133 | 0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin Badgers |
30 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1.233 | 0 |
NCAA · Hockey East
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston University Terriers |
28 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 2.018 | 0 |
| 2 |  Connecticut Huskies |
30 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 1.633 | 0 |
| 3 |  Massachusetts Lowell |
28 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1.321 | 0 |
| 4 |  Northeastern Huskies |
29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 1.552 | 0 |
| 5 | Merrimack Warriors |
29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 82 | 1.414 | 0 |
| 6 |  Providence Friars |
30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 92 | 1.533 | 0 |
| 7 |  Maine Black Bears |
29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1.310 | 0 |
| 8 |  Massachusetts Minutemen |
27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 1.407 | 0 |
| 9 |  Boston College Eagles |
28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1.339 | 0 |
| 10 |  New Hampshire Wildcats |
30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 1.117 | 0 |
| 11 |  Vermont Catamounts |
29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 56 | .966 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish host Merrimack Warriors in the NCAA on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.