Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Michigan State Spartans prediction
Chance to win · 24% and 56% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks · Average confidence 69%Full game
- 1X2Michigan State1.35Confidence 58%
- Over/UnderO5.51.68Confidence 53%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapNotre Dame +3.51.27Confidence 77%
- Winner (incl. OT)Michigan StateConfidence 70%
- Double chanceMichigan State or draw1.12Confidence 77%
- Draw no betMichigan State1.14Confidence 73%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)Yes1.14Confidence 85%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2Michigan StateConfidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderU2.5Confidence 76%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Notre Dame 2–5
Michigan State Score details
- Correct score2–55%chance
- 1st period correct score0–210%chance
- Highest scoring period3rd period31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-5
- By period 0-2, 1-1, 1-2
- Likeliest 2-5 (5%), 2-4 (4%), 3-6 (2%)
Season so far
This seasonNotre Dame Fighting Irish
Michigan State Spartans
Head-to-head
Notre Dame 0–5
Michigan State - Feb 20, 2026: Michigan State Spartans 8, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2.
- Feb 19, 2026: Michigan State Spartans 4, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2.
- Nov 15, 2025: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1, Michigan State Spartans 3.
- Nov 14, 2025: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1, Michigan State Spartans 4.
- Mar 15, 2025: Michigan State Spartans 1, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.
Last five games
Notre Dame
2-3-0 - Win, 4–2 at Penn State Nittany Lions, Nov 7. Odds: Penn State 1.80, Notre Dame 3.30.
- Win, 5–4 at Penn State Nittany Lions, after overtime, Nov 6. Odds: Penn State 1.80, Notre Dame 3.30.
- Loss, 1–9 at Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 31.
- Loss, 1–7 at Wisconsin Badgers, Oct 30. Odds: Wisconsin 1.33, Notre Dame 5.50.
- Loss, 3–6 against Merrimack Warriors, Oct 24. Odds: Notre Dame 3.05, Merrimack 1.88.
Michigan State
3-2-0 - Win, 5–0 against Boston University Terriers, Nov 7. Odds: Michigan State 2.15, Boston Univ. 2.45.
- Loss, 2–6 against Boston University Terriers, Nov 6. Odds: Michigan State 1.85, Boston Univ. 3.00.
- Win, 5–3 at North Dakota Fighting Hawks, Oct 31. Odds: North Dakota 3.00, Michigan State 1.86.
- Win, 2–1 at New Hampshire Wildcats, Oct 24. Odds: New Hampshire 6.00, Michigan State 1.36.
- Loss, 0–1 at New Hampshire Wildcats, Oct 23. Odds: New Hampshire 5.20, Michigan State 1.44.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Michigan State Spartans.
- 5.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
- 6th vs 5th in the NCAA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (NDF) | 8.50 | 7.40 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 5.50 | 5.40 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (MSS) | 1.24 | 1.26 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap NDF | +2.5 | +2.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Big Ten
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Golden Gophers |
30 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 2.033 | 0 |
| 2 |  Michigan Wolverines |
30 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 2.050 | 0 |
| 3 |  Penn State Nittany Lions |
30 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 4 |  Ohio State Buckeyes |
29 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 1.603 | 0 |
| 5 | Michigan State Spartans |
32 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 1.438 | 0 |
| 6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 1.133 | 0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin Badgers |
30 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1.233 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish host Michigan State Spartans in the NCAA on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.