Nottingham vs Cardiff Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

U8.5 1.33

Confidence71%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%

Full game

1X2LostNottinghamodds up 2.38Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU8.5odds down 1.33Confidence 71%
HandicapWonCardiff +1.5Confidence 65%
Winner (incl. OT)LostNottinghamodds up 1.89Confidence 60%
Double chanceLostNottingham or drawodds up 1.48Confidence 68%
Draw no betLostNottingham2.00Confidence 62%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesConfidence 85%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostNottinghamodds up 2.60Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5Confidence 76%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Nottingham 32

Cardiff

Final 2–4

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 6

Draw after 60 minDraw 22% Decided in regulation

NOT to winTo win 60% CAR won

Score details

Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min2–44%chance
1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period0–116%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals27%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 3-2
By period 1-0, 0-1, 2-1
Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 2-1 (3%), 4-3 (3%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 11+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record5-2-25-3-0

Home / road split3-1-00-3-0

StreakL1W1

Rest6 daysBack-to-back

Goals for2.92.8

Goals against2.92.6

In the standings4th2nd

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.4+0.6

Goals for2.92.7

Goals against2.52.1

Shots on goal34.133.8

Shots against28.629.6

Shooting %8.5%8.0%

Save %92.0%93.2%

Power-play %18.8%27.3%

Penalty kill %87.1%81.0%

Faceoff %48.3%51.0%

Penalty minutes9.14.8

Blocked shots8.18.2

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Nottingham 23

Cardiff

Cardiff won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 6.4 NOT 2.6 · CAR 3.8

Over 7.0 goalsOver 7.0 2 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 1 of 5 1 in a shootout

Sep 25, 2026: Cardiff 5, Nottingham 3.
Apr 5, 2026: Nottingham 1, Cardiff 4.
Mar 15, 2026: Cardiff 7, Nottingham 2.
Feb 22, 2026: Nottingham 3, Cardiff 2, after a shootout.
Feb 1, 2026: Cardiff 1, Nottingham 4.

Last five games

Nottingham 4-0-1

Overtime loss, 1–2 at Coventry, after a shootout, Oct 18. Odds: Coventry 2.65, Nottingham 2.02.
Win, 3–2 against Sheffield, Oct 17. Odds: Nottingham 2.19, Sheffield 2.45.
Win, 3–2 against Fife, Oct 11.
Win, 2–1 at Manchester, after a shootout, Oct 10.
Win, 6–3 at Guildford, Oct 4.

Cardiff 4-0-1

Win, 1–0 against Sheffield, Oct 24. Odds: Cardiff 1.93, Sheffield 2.89.
Overtime loss, 2–3 at Dundee, after overtime, Oct 18. Odds: Dundee 5.75, Cardiff 1.30.
Win, 5–4 against Coventry, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Cardiff 1.63, Coventry 3.73.
Win, 5–2 against Belfast, Oct 11. Odds: Cardiff 1.87, Belfast 3.20.
Win, 3–0 against Dundee, Oct 10. Odds: Cardiff 1.10, Dundee 12.00.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

08:48 Goal Cardiff: Welsh N. assists: MacDonald J., Olischefski K. 0-1

2nd period2-2

11:08 Goal Cardiff: Mosey E. assists: Estes B., Caron T. 0-2
13:45 Goal PPG Nottingham: Hansen-Bukata A. assists: Corbeil B., O'Brien Z. 1-2
14:31 Goal PPG Nottingham: Naas S. assists: Corbeil B. 2-2
16:32 Goal PPG Cardiff: Yaremko N. assists: MacDonald J., Fournier G. 2-3

3rd period0-1

19:53 Goal ENG Cardiff: Barrow R. assists: Fournier G. 2-4

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Second game in two days for Cardiff, who played yesterday.
In goal: Robson M. for Nottingham (6-2-2 in the last 10 starts), Stoever C. for Cardiff (10-0-0 in the last 10 starts).
3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Cardiff.
4-0-1 in the last five for Nottingham.
4-0-1 in the last five for Cardiff.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (NOT)	2.45	2.45	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.45	4.45	No change
1X2: 2 (CAR)	2.15	2.15	No change
Over/Under line	7	7	No change
Handicap NOT	+1.5	+1.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

Challenge Cup standings

Regular Season · Group A

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Sheffield	10	7	3	0	14	.700	34	23	+11
2	Cardiff	10	6	3	1	13	.650	29	27	+2
3	Guildford	10	5	3	2	12	.600	34	31	+3
4	Nottingham	10	5	3	2	12	.600	28	30	−2
5	Coventry	10	4	5	1	9	.450	25	33	−8
6	Manchester	10	3	4	3	9	.450	28	34	−6

Playoffs: Semi-finals
Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Nottingham vs Cardiff prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details