Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers prediction
Ottawa Senators 5–, Florida Panthers 1
FT
Puck drop 19:30 ET
1X2 2.351X2 2.52
Canadian Tire Centre (Ottawa, ON) · USACanadian Tire Centre (Ottawa, ON)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OTT
1
2
2
FLA
1
0
0
54%Ottawa win · 43% in regulationOTT
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
46%Florida win · 34% in regulationFLA
Chance to win · 43% and 34% in regulation
Ullmark L.StartedSV 92.7% · GAA 1.80 · 7-3-0
Schmid A.StartedSV 88% · GAA 3.00 · 3-4-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Over/Under
Won
O4.5
odds up 1.40
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%Full game
- 1X2WonSenatorsodds up 2.40Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.40Confidence 69%
- HandicapLostPanthers +1.5odds down 1.34Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonSenatorsodds up 1.83Confidence 56%
- Double chanceWonSenators or drawodds up 1.47Confidence 68%
- Draw no betWonSenatorsodds up 1.85Confidence 57%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.09Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostSenatorsodds up 2.75Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.83Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Senators 3–2
Panthers
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 6
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Ottawa to winTo win
54%
OTT won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min5–13%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · all three30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Ottawa Senators
Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators
Florida Panthers
Season recordOttawa Senators 6-3-0Florida Panthers 5-2-2
Home / road splitOttawa Senators 3-1-0Florida Panthers 3-1-2
StreakOttawa Senators L1Florida Panthers W3
RestOttawa Senators 3 daysFlorida Panthers 3 days
Goals forOttawa Senators 2.7Florida Panthers 3.3
Goals againstOttawa Senators 2.6Florida Panthers 2.8
In the standingsOttawa Senators 4thFlorida Panthers 5th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameOttawa Senators −0.3Florida Panthers +1.2
Goals forOttawa Senators 2.4Florida Panthers 3.8
Goals againstOttawa Senators 2.7Florida Panthers 2.6
Shots on goalOttawa Senators 23.3Florida Panthers 29.3
Shots againstOttawa Senators 26.2Florida Panthers 24.0
Shooting %Ottawa Senators 10.3%Florida Panthers 13.0%
Save %Ottawa Senators 91.2%Florida Panthers 89.6%
Power-play %Ottawa Senators 10.3%Florida Panthers 19.2%
Penalty kill %Ottawa Senators 83.3%Florida Panthers 85.4%
Faceoff %Ottawa Senators 52.5%Florida Panthers 46.4%
Penalty minutesOttawa Senators 10.7Florida Panthers 12.1
HitsOttawa Senators 25.2Florida Panthers 29.8
Blocked shotsOttawa Senators 14.9Florida Panthers 17.0
Per game · OTT at home, FLA away
Goal differential per gameOttawa Senators +0.6Florida Panthers −0.1
Goals forOttawa Senators 3.0Florida Panthers 3.0
Goals againstOttawa Senators 2.4Florida Panthers 3.1
Shots on goalOttawa Senators 25.9Florida Panthers 27.0
Shots againstOttawa Senators 25.0Florida Panthers 24.5
Shooting %Ottawa Senators 11.6%Florida Panthers 11.1%
Save %Ottawa Senators 91.2%Florida Panthers 87.8%
Power-play %Ottawa Senators 23.9%Florida Panthers 16.3%
Penalty kill %Ottawa Senators 86.1%Florida Panthers 78.3%
Faceoff %Ottawa Senators 51.2%Florida Panthers 48.5%
Penalty minutesOttawa Senators 7.5Florida Panthers 10.9
HitsOttawa Senators 25.8Florida Panthers 31.8
Blocked shotsOttawa Senators 14.9Florida Panthers 16.6
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Senators 2–3
Panthers
Goals a gameGoals
6.2
OTT 3.0 · FLA 3.2
Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Apr 9, 2026: Ottawa Senators 5, Florida Panthers 1.
- Mar 31, 2026: Florida Panthers 6, Ottawa Senators 3.
- Jan 10, 2026: Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 3.
- Oct 11, 2025: Florida Panthers 6, Ottawa Senators 2.
- Apr 5, 2025: Ottawa Senators 3, Florida Panthers 0.
Last five games
Senators
3-2-0 - Loss, 1–3 at Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 17. Odds: Flyers 3.08, Senators 2.03.
- Win, 2–1 against New York Islanders, after a shootout, Oct 15. Odds: Senators 1.91, Islanders 3.25.
- Loss, 2–7 against St. Louis Blues, Oct 13. Odds: Senators 2.73, Blues 2.32.
- Win, 4–1 at New Jersey Devils, Oct 12. Odds: Devils 2.37, Senators 2.64.
- Win, 3–2 against Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: Senators 2.10, Predators 2.80.
Panthers
3-2-0 - Win, 8–3 against Seattle Kraken, Oct 17. Odds: Panthers 1.87, Kraken 3.25.
- Win, 3–2 against Vancouver Canucks, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Panthers 1.53, Canucks 4.75.
- Win, 7–3 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 13. Odds: Blue Jackets 2.26, Panthers 2.79.
- Loss, 3–5 at Buffalo Sabres, Oct 12. Odds: Sabres 2.40, Panthers 2.60.
- Loss, 1–4 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 10. Odds: Panthers 2.15, Wild 2.90.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-1
- 04:23 2 min Florida Panthers: Ekblad A. High sticking
- 09:51 2 min Ottawa Senators: Zub A. Tripping
- 10:00 Goal PPG Florida Panthers: Tkachuk B. assists: Tkachuk M., Jones S. 0-1
- 10:05 5 min Ottawa Senators: Hodgson H. Fighting
- 10:05 5 min Florida Panthers: Imama B. Fighting
- 12:45 2 min Florida Panthers: Gudas R. Cross checking
- 14:13 Goal PPG Ottawa Senators: Stutzle T. assists: Sanderson J., Halliday S. 1-1
- 15:32 2 min Ottawa Senators: Zub A. Roughing
- 15:32 2 min Ottawa Senators: Cousins N. Roughing
- 15:32 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk B. Roughing
- 15:32 2 min Florida Panthers: Gudas R. Roughing
- 16:00 2 min Ottawa Senators: Matinpalo N. High sticking
- 20:00 2 min Ottawa Senators: Yakemchuk C. Roughing
2nd period2-0
- 01:37 2 min Florida Panthers: Ekblad A. Holding
- 06:58 2 min Florida Panthers: Mikkola N. Tripping
- 07:05 2 min Ottawa Senators: Batherson D. Slashing
- 09:34 Goal Ottawa Senators: Giroux C. assists: Matinpalo N. 2-1
- 11:43 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk M. High sticking
- 17:18 Goal Ottawa Senators: Pinto S. assists: Sanderson J. 3-1
- 19:45 2 min Florida Panthers: Bennett S. Slashing
3rd period2-0
- 02:17 5 min Florida Panthers: Bennett S. Fighting
- 02:17 5 min Ottawa Senators: Greig R. Fighting
- 03:35 2 min Ottawa Senators: Cousins N. Roughing
- 03:35 2 min Ottawa Senators: Cozens D. Roughing
- 03:35 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk M. Roughing
- 03:35 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk B. Roughing
- 03:35 Goalie change Ottawa Senators: Ersson S. replaces Ullmark L.
- 07:58 Goal Ottawa Senators: Foegele W. assists: Cozens D., Batherson D. 4-1
- 12:04 2 min Ottawa Senators: Hodgson H. Slashing
- 14:57 Goal Ottawa Senators: Halliday S. assists: Stutzle T. 5-1
- 15:34 2 min Florida Panthers: Imama B.
- 18:46 2 min Ottawa Senators: Greig R. Roughing
- 18:46 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk B. Roughing
- 18:46 2 min Florida Panthers: Tkachuk M. Roughing
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Florida Panthers coming into this game.
- In goal: Ullmark L. for Ottawa Senators (7-3-0 in the last 10 starts), Schmid A. for Florida Panthers (3-4-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.5 per game — Ottawa Senators −0.3, Florida Panthers +1.2 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Florida Panthers.
- 6.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (OTT) | 2.35 | 2.35 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.75 | 3.75 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (FLA) | 2.52 | 2.52 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap OTT | −1.5 | +1.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 | Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 | Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Ottawa Senators host Florida Panthers in the NHL on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.