Providence Friars vs Merrimack Warriors prediction
Chance to win · 59% and 22% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks · Average confidence 67%Full game
- 1X2Providence1.80Confidence 61%
- Over/UnderO4.51.37Confidence 72%
- HandicapMerrimack +1.51.60Confidence 56%
- Winner (incl. OT)ProvidenceConfidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceProvidence or draw1.30Confidence 79%
- Draw no betProvidence1.42Confidence 75%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)Yes1.08Confidence 86%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2ProvidenceConfidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderO1.5Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Providence 3–2
Merrimack Score details
- Correct score3–24%chance
- 1st period correct score2–09%chance
- Highest scoring period3rd period31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (4%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Season so far
This seasonProvidence Friars
Merrimack Warriors
Head-to-head
Providence 3–2
Merrimack - Mar 14, 2026: Providence Friars 2, Merrimack Warriors 3, after overtime.
- Nov 15, 2025: Merrimack Warriors 3, Providence Friars 2.
- Nov 14, 2025: Providence Friars 4, Merrimack Warriors 2.
- Mar 1, 2025: Merrimack Warriors 1, Providence Friars 2.
- Feb 28, 2025: Providence Friars 3, Merrimack Warriors 2.
Last five games
Providence
3-2-0 - Win, 8–1 at Connecticut Huskies, Nov 7. Odds: UConn 2.60, Providence 2.00.
- Loss, 5–6 against Connecticut Huskies, Nov 5. Odds: Providence 1.60, UConn 4.09.
- Loss, 1–5 at Quinnipiac Bobcats, Oct 31. Odds: Quinnipiac 2.35, Providence 2.40.
- Win, 5–2 against Massachusetts Lowell, Oct 24. Odds: Providence 1.25, UMass Lowell 7.00.
- Win, 3–0 at Massachusetts Lowell, Oct 23. Odds: UMass Lowell 6.00, Providence 1.36.
Merrimack
4-0-1 - Win, 6–2 against Holy Cross Crusaders, Nov 6. Odds: Merrimack 1.45, Holy Cross 5.00.
- Overtime loss, 5–6 against Connecticut Huskies, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Merrimack 2.02, UConn 2.75.
- Win, 5–4 against Connecticut Huskies, Oct 30. Odds: Merrimack 2.10, UConn 2.65.
- Win, 6–3 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Oct 24. Odds: Notre Dame 3.05, Merrimack 1.88.
- Win, 2–1 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Notre Dame 2.95, Merrimack 1.90.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Key insights
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Providence Friars.
- +1.3 goals at home — Providence Friars averaged 5.0 at home and 3.8 away this season.
- 4-0-1 in the last five for Merrimack Warriors.
- 4.8 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
- 6th vs 5th in the NCAA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (PRO) | 1.75 | 1.75 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.10 | 4.10 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (MER) | 3.40 | 3.40 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap PRO | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NCAA standings
NCAA · Hockey East
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston University Terriers |
28 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 2.018 | 0 |
| 2 |  Connecticut Huskies |
30 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 1.633 | 0 |
| 3 |  Massachusetts Lowell |
28 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1.321 | 0 |
| 4 |  Northeastern Huskies |
29 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 1.552 | 0 |
| 5 | Merrimack Warriors |
29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 82 | 1.414 | 0 |
| 6 | Providence Friars |
30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 92 | 1.533 | 0 |
| 7 |  Maine Black Bears |
29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1.310 | 0 |
| 8 |  Massachusetts Minutemen |
27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 1.407 | 0 |
| 9 |  Boston College Eagles |
28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1.339 | 0 |
| 10 |  New Hampshire Wildcats |
30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 1.117 | 0 |
| 11 |  Vermont Catamounts |
29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 56 | .966 | 0 |
Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.
Providence Friars host Merrimack Warriors in the NCAA on Friday, November 13, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.