Rochester Americans vs Hershey Bears prediction
Chance to win · 39% and 38% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2WonHersheyodds down 2.55Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.35Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonHershey +1.5odds up 1.34Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonHersheyodds down 2.00Confidence 51%
- Double chanceWonHershey or drawodds down 1.57Confidence 66%
- Draw no betWonHersheyodds down 2.05Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDrawodds up 2.70Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.71Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Rochester 1–4
Hershey Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min2–34%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–11st period0–113%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 1-1, 0-0, 0-3
- Likeliest 1-4 (4%), 2-3 (3%), 2-5 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formRochester Americans
Hershey Bears
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Rochester 1–4
Hershey - Apr 19, 2026: Hershey Bears 5, Rochester Americans 4, after overtime.
- Jan 30, 2026: Rochester Americans 3, Hershey Bears 1.
- Jan 28, 2026: Rochester Americans 1, Hershey Bears 3.
- Nov 9, 2025: Hershey Bears 2, Rochester Americans 1.
- Jan 19, 2025: Hershey Bears 5, Rochester Americans 4.
Last five games
Rochester
2-3-0 - Win, 3–2 at Syracuse Crunch, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Syracuse 2.05, Rochester 2.70.
- Loss, 3–5 against Utica Comets, Oct 21. Odds: Rochester 2.65, Utica 2.15.
- Loss, 2–4 at Syracuse Crunch, Oct 17. Odds: Syracuse 2.02, Rochester 2.62.
- Win, 4–1 at Hamilton Hammers, Oct 16. Odds: Hamilton 2.05, Rochester 2.55.
- Loss, 1–2 at Utica Comets, Oct 10.
Hershey
4-1-0 - Win, 5–2 against Belleville Senators, Oct 24. Odds: Hershey 2.10, Belleville 2.60.
- Loss, 1–6 against Providence Bruins, Oct 18. Odds: Hershey 2.50, Providence 2.25.
- Win, 5–3 against Providence Bruins, Oct 17. Odds: Hershey 2.35, Providence 2.22.
- Win, 6–1 against Texas Stars, Oct 11. Odds: Hershey 2.63, Texas 2.20.
- Win, 2–1 against Texas Stars, Oct 10. Odds: Hershey 2.95, Texas 1.92.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 13:54 Goal Hershey Bears: Lakovic L. assists: Belpedio L., Smallman S. 0-1
2nd period2-2
- 02:32 Goal Hershey Bears: Sikora P. assists: Lakovic L., Anderson J. 0-2
- 02:56 Goal Hershey Bears: Belpedio L. assists: Sikora P., Lakovic L. 0-3
- 15:27 Goal Rochester Americans: McDonough A. assists: Warren B. 1-3
- 16:51 Goal Rochester Americans: Meyer C. assists: Jones C., Peca M. 2-3
3rd period0-0
No goals or penalties.
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Hershey Bears.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Hershey Bears.
- Save % gap: Rochester Americans 92.6%, Hershey Bears 90.5% over their recent games.
- 5.8 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (ROC) | 2.15 | 2.15 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.40 | 4.40 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (HER) | 2.50 | 2.50 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap ROC | −0.5 | −0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 |  Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 | Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Checkers |
15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 19 | .633 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 2 |  Hartford Wolf Pack |
17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 17 | .500 | 44 | 49 | −5 |
| 3 | Hershey Bears |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | .615 | 42 | 38 | +4 |
| 4 |  Wilkes-Barre/Scranton |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 47 | 37 | +10 |
| 5 |  Providence Bruins |
14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 12 | .429 | 47 | 43 | +4 |
| 6 |  Lehigh Valley Phantoms |
13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | .423 | 37 | 55 | −18 |
| 7 |  Springfield Thunderbirds |
13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | .423 | 32 | 46 | −14 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Rochester Americans host Hershey Bears in the AHL on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.