Rochester Americans vs Lehigh Valley Phantoms prediction
Chance to win · 44% and 34% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2WonRochesterodds down 2.45Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.38Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonRochester +1.5odds up 1.30Confidence 72%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonRochesterodds down 1.92Confidence 57%
- Double chanceWonRochester or drawodds down 1.54Confidence 68%
- Draw no betWonRochester1.89Confidence 59%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.08Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonRochesterodds down 2.75Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.83Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Rochester 4–1
Lehigh Valley Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–1After 60 min6–34%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period3–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 3rd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-1
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-1 (4%), 5-2 (4%), 3-2 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formRochester Americans
Lehigh Valley Phantoms
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Rochester 1–3
Lehigh Valley - Dec 13, 2025: Rochester Americans 1, Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2, after a shootout.
- Nov 19, 2025: Lehigh Valley Phantoms 4, Rochester Americans 2.
- Jan 18, 2025: Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2, Rochester Americans 3.
- Jan 17, 2025: Rochester Americans 2, Lehigh Valley Phantoms 3, after a shootout.
Last five games
Rochester
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–3 against Hershey Bears, Oct 28. Odds: Rochester 2.15, Hershey 2.50.
- Win, 3–2 at Syracuse Crunch, after overtime, Oct 23. Odds: Syracuse 2.05, Rochester 2.70.
- Loss, 3–5 against Utica Comets, Oct 21. Odds: Rochester 2.65, Utica 2.15.
- Loss, 2–4 at Syracuse Crunch, Oct 17. Odds: Syracuse 2.02, Rochester 2.62.
- Win, 4–1 at Hamilton Hammers, Oct 16. Odds: Hamilton 2.05, Rochester 2.55.
Lehigh Valley
4-1-0 - Win, 2–0 against Belleville Senators, Oct 25. Odds: Lehigh Valley 2.60, Belleville 2.10.
- Loss, 2–7 against Syracuse Crunch, Oct 24. Odds: Lehigh Valley 2.90, Syracuse 1.96.
- Win, 3–2 at Springfield Thunderbirds, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Springfield 2.45, Lehigh Valley 2.12.
- Win, 6–3 at Springfield Thunderbirds, Oct 16. Odds: Springfield 2.37, Lehigh Valley 2.22.
- Win, 4–1 at Hartford Wolf Pack, Oct 14. Odds: Hartford 2.35, Lehigh Valley 2.46.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period3-1
- 02:03 Goal Rochester Americans: Richard J. assists: McDonough A., Costantini M. 1-0
- 07:08 Goal PPG Rochester Americans: Polin J. assists: Peca M. 2-0
- 09:04 Goal Lehigh Valley Phantoms: Wisdom Z. assists: Powell N. 2-1
- 13:39 Goal Rochester Americans: Fiddler-Schultz R. assists: Kuntar T. 3-1
2nd period1-0
- 07:24 Goal PPG Rochester Americans: Polin J. assists: Peca M., Kuntar T. 4-1
3rd period2-2
- 06:52 Goal SHG Lehigh Valley Phantoms: Aston-Reese Z. assists: Gill S. 4-2
- 08:12 Goal Rochester Americans: Costantini M. assists: Slaggert G., Komarov V. 5-2
- 08:32 Goal Rochester Americans: Peca M. assists: McDonough A., Valente L. 6-2
- 13:55 Goal Lehigh Valley Phantoms: Foote N. assists: Sevigny V., Gaucher J. 6-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Lehigh Valley Phantoms, 1 for Rochester Americans.
- Goal differential gap of 1.4 per game — Rochester Americans +1.0, Lehigh Valley Phantoms −0.4 over their recent games.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
- +1.4 goals at home — Rochester Americans averaged 3.8 at home and 2.4 away this season.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (ROC) | 2.20 | 2.20 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (LVP) | 2.50 | 2.50 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap ROC | +1.5 | +0.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 |  Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 | Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Checkers |
15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 19 | .633 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 2 |  Hartford Wolf Pack |
17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 17 | .500 | 44 | 49 | −5 |
| 3 |  Hershey Bears |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | .615 | 42 | 38 | +4 |
| 4 |  Wilkes-Barre/Scranton |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 47 | 37 | +10 |
| 5 |  Providence Bruins |
14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 12 | .429 | 47 | 43 | +4 |
| 6 | Lehigh Valley Phantoms |
13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | .423 | 37 | 55 | −18 |
| 7 |  Springfield Thunderbirds |
13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | .423 | 32 | 46 | −14 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Rochester Americans host Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the AHL on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.