Sarnia Sting vs Guelph Storm prediction
Chance to win · 44% and 35% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostSarniaodds up 2.62Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU8.5odds up 1.33Confidence 72%
- HandicapLostSarnia +1.5odds up 1.44Confidence 70%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostSarniaodds up 2.02Confidence 56%
- Double chanceLostSarnia or drawodds up 1.57Confidence 67%
- Draw no betLostSarniaodds up 2.02Confidence 58%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.02Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostSarniaodds up 2.75Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.50Confidence 60%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Sarnia 5–2
Guelph Score details
- Correct scoreLost5–2After 60 min2–54%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon2nd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 5-2
- By period 2-0, 2-1, 1-1
- Likeliest 5-2 (4%), 4-2 (3%), 4-1 (3%)
Season so far
This seasonSarnia Sting
Guelph Storm
Head-to-head
Sarnia 3–2
Guelph - Feb 18, 2026: Sarnia Sting 2, Guelph Storm 3, after overtime.
- Dec 14, 2025: Sarnia Sting 6, Guelph Storm 4.
- Dec 12, 2025: Guelph Storm 2, Sarnia Sting 3, after a shootout.
- Nov 2, 2025: Guelph Storm 4, Sarnia Sting 1.
- Mar 7, 2025: Guelph Storm 1, Sarnia Sting 5.
Last five games
Sarnia
2-2-1 - Loss, 4–6 at Flint Firebirds, Oct 10.
- Win, 4–0 against Oshawa Generals, Oct 9. Odds: Sarnia 1.63, Oshawa 3.75.
- Win, 3–0 at Oshawa Generals, Oct 4.
- Loss, 3–5 at Barrie Colts, Oct 3.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against Soo Greyhounds, after overtime, Oct 2.
Guelph
5-0-0 - Win, 10–5 at Owen Sound Attack, Oct 10.
- Win, 3–2 against Owen Sound Attack, Oct 9.
- Win, 6–0 against Kitchener Rangers, Oct 4.
- Win, 4–2 against Windsor Spitfires, Oct 2.
- Win, 5–1 at Owen Sound Attack, Sep 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-1
- 00:21 Goal Guelph Storm: Roobroeck R. assists: Czata E. 0-1
- 02:42 Goal Sarnia Sting: Walos E. assists: Aucoin C., Emerton C. 1-1
2nd period0-3
- 02:41 Goal PPG Guelph Storm: Bartovic A. assists: Dravecky V., Kazda T. 1-2
- 11:45 Goal Guelph Storm: Dravecky V. assists: Shybinskyi I., Carscadden A. 1-3
- 17:04 Goal Guelph Storm: Wycisk J. 1-4
3rd period1-1
- 15:39 Goal Sarnia Sting: Emerton C. assists: Van Volsen J., Hawery L. 2-4
- 19:59 Goal SHG Guelph Storm: Hopkins T. assists: Roobroeck R. 2-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 6-game winning streak for Guelph Storm coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Guelph Storm dropped from 1.67 to 1.28 since they were first published.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Sarnia Sting.
- 6.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 7.5.
- 9th vs 1st in the OHL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (SAR) | 3.46 | 4.95 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.76 | 5.24 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (GUE) | 1.73 | 1.46 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 7 | 7.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap SAR | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
OHL standings
Regular Season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guelph Storm |
18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 30 | .833 | 81 | 53 | +28 |
| 2 |  Soo Greyhounds |
21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 26 | .619 | 70 | 69 | +1 |
| 3 |  Windsor Spitfires |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 25 | .658 | 72 | 58 | +14 |
| 4 |  London Knights |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 71 | 59 | +12 |
| 5 |  Flint Firebirds |
17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 23 | .676 | 64 | 50 | +14 |
| 6 |  Kitchener Rangers |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 23 | .605 | 61 | 56 | +5 |
| 7 |  Erie Otters |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 65 | −5 |
| 8 |  Saginaw Spirit |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 70 | 68 | +2 |
| 9 | Sarnia Sting |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 76 | 84 | −8 |
| 10 |  Owen Sound Attack |
19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 15 | .395 | 49 | 78 | −29 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Sarnia Sting host Guelph Storm in the OHL on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.