Sarnia Sting vs Saginaw Spirit prediction
Chance to win · 50% and 30% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostSarniaodds down 3.05Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU8.5odds down 1.34Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostSarnia +1.5odds down 1.57Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostSarniaodds down 2.35Confidence 56%
- Double chanceLostSarnia or drawodds down 1.72Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostSarniaodds down 2.40Confidence 56%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.02Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostSarniaodds down 3.00Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.48Confidence 63%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Sarnia 5–2
Saginaw Score details
- Correct scoreLost5–2After 60 min2–94%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–27%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon2nd periodMost goals2nd · 6 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 5-2
- By period 2-0, 2-1, 1-1
- Likeliest 5-2 (4%), 4-2 (3%), 4-1 (3%)
Season so far
This seasonSarnia Sting
Saginaw Spirit
Head-to-head
Sarnia 2–3
Saginaw - Oct 17, 2026: Saginaw Spirit 7, Sarnia Sting 4.
- Mar 21, 2026: Saginaw Spirit 3, Sarnia Sting 4, after overtime.
- Mar 15, 2026: Sarnia Sting 3, Saginaw Spirit 7.
- Feb 21, 2026: Saginaw Spirit 4, Sarnia Sting 7.
- Feb 13, 2026: Sarnia Sting 3, Saginaw Spirit 11.
Last five games
Sarnia
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–5 against Guelph Storm, Oct 14. Odds: Sarnia 4.95, Guelph 1.46.
- Loss, 4–6 at Flint Firebirds, Oct 10.
- Win, 4–0 against Oshawa Generals, Oct 9. Odds: Sarnia 1.63, Oshawa 3.75.
- Win, 3–0 at Oshawa Generals, Oct 4.
- Loss, 3–5 at Barrie Colts, Oct 3.
Saginaw
3-1-1 - Win, 3–2 at Windsor Spitfires, after a shootout, Oct 12. Odds: Windsor 2.41, Saginaw 2.34.
- Win, 4–2 against Kitchener Rangers, Oct 10.
- Win, 3–2 at Brampton Steelheads, after overtime, Oct 3.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Kitchener Rangers, after overtime, Oct 2.
- Loss, 3–6 against Windsor Spitfires, Sep 26.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 11:01 Goal SHG Saginaw Spirit: Pepoy B. assists: Barnes B. 0-1
- 12:18 Goal Saginaw Spirit: Wassilyn B. assists: Khotkov G., Barnes B. 0-2
- 19:19 Goal PPG Sarnia Sting: Manza M. assists: Hawery L., Emerton C. 1-2
2nd period1-5
- 03:42 Goal Saginaw Spirit: Khotkov G. assists: Barnes B., Geldart G. 1-3
- 06:16 Goal PPG Saginaw Spirit: Zhilkin D. assists: Hanrahan R., Wassilyn B. 1-4
- 13:05 Goal Saginaw Spirit: Pepoy B. assists: Wassilyn B., Harper L. 1-5
- 15:02 Goal PPG Sarnia Sting: Walos E. assists: Emerton C., Hawery L. 2-5
- 16:35 Goal Saginaw Spirit: Pepoy B. assists: Harper L. 2-6
- 19:14 Goal PPG Saginaw Spirit: Cloutier J. assists: Zhilkin D., Wassilyn B. 2-7
3rd period0-2
- 00:42 Goal PPG Saginaw Spirit: Milojevic A. assists: Pepoy B., Savin D. 2-8
- 03:25 Goal PPG Saginaw Spirit: Bate D. assists: Savin D., Martyniuk T. 2-9
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Saginaw Spirit coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Sarnia Sting dropped from 2.35 to 1.73 since they were first published.
- Rest advantage: 3 days off for Saginaw Spirit, 1 for Sarnia Sting.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Saginaw Spirit.
- 10.6 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 7.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (SAR) | 2.82 | 2.61 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.33 | 4.30 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (SAG) | 1.94 | 2.07 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 7 | 7 | No change |
| Handicap SAR | +1.5 | −1.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
OHL standings
Regular Season · West Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Soo Greyhounds |
21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 26 | .619 | 70 | 69 | +1 |
| 2 |  Windsor Spitfires |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 25 | .658 | 72 | 58 | +14 |
| 3 |  Flint Firebirds |
17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 23 | .676 | 64 | 50 | +14 |
| 4 | Saginaw Spirit |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 70 | 68 | +2 |
| 5 | Sarnia Sting |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 76 | 84 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Sarnia Sting host Saginaw Spirit in the OHL on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.