Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Seattle Kraken 5–, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
FT
Puck drop 22:00 ET
1X2 odds down 2.751X2 odds up 2.10
Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA) · USAClimate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
SEA
1
3
1
TOR
1
1
2
51%Seattle win · 40% in regulationSEA
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
49%Toronto win · 38% in regulationTOR
Chance to win · 40% and 38% in regulation
Grubauer P.StartedSV 90.3% · GAA 2.90 · 5-4-1
Bobrovsky S.StartedSV 89.8% · GAA 2.90 · 4-4-2
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Kraken +1.5
odds up 1.37
Confidence68%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2WonKrakenodds up 2.45Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.51.39Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonKraken +1.5odds up 1.37Confidence 68%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonKrakenodds up 1.90Confidence 51%
- Double chanceWonKraken or drawodds up 1.52Confidence 66%
- Draw no betWonKrakenodds up 1.93Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostKrakenodds down 2.90Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.67Confidence 57%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Kraken 5–2
Maple Leafs
Total goalsTotal
7
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Decided in regulation
Seattle to winTo win
51%
SEA won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost5–2After 60 min5–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 5-2
- By period 2-0, 1-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 5-2 (4%), 4-1 (4%), 4-2 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Seattle Kraken
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seattle Kraken
Toronto Maple Leafs
Season recordSeattle Kraken 7-4-1Toronto Maple Leafs 7-5-2
Home / road splitSeattle Kraken 3-2-0Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2-1
StreakSeattle Kraken L1Toronto Maple Leafs L1
RestSeattle Kraken 3 daysToronto Maple Leafs 1 day
Goals forSeattle Kraken 3.8Toronto Maple Leafs 3.7
Goals againstSeattle Kraken 3.5Toronto Maple Leafs 3.3
In the standingsSeattle Kraken 4thToronto Maple Leafs 7th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameSeattle Kraken −0.2Toronto Maple Leafs +0.7
Goals forSeattle Kraken 3.6Toronto Maple Leafs 4.1
Goals againstSeattle Kraken 3.8Toronto Maple Leafs 3.4
Shots on goalSeattle Kraken 25.8Toronto Maple Leafs 28.0
Shots againstSeattle Kraken 33.2Toronto Maple Leafs 31.3
Shooting %Seattle Kraken 14.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 14.6%
Save %Seattle Kraken 88.9%Toronto Maple Leafs 90.1%
Power-play %Seattle Kraken 18.9%Toronto Maple Leafs 26.8%
Penalty kill %Seattle Kraken 72.2%Toronto Maple Leafs 95.8%
Faceoff %Seattle Kraken 53.3%Toronto Maple Leafs 52.7%
Penalty minutesSeattle Kraken 9.9Toronto Maple Leafs 11.6
HitsSeattle Kraken 15.9Toronto Maple Leafs 18.2
Blocked shotsSeattle Kraken 12.1Toronto Maple Leafs 8.1
Per game · SEA at home, TOR away
Goal differential per gameSeattle Kraken −0.6Toronto Maple Leafs 0.0
Goals forSeattle Kraken 3.1Toronto Maple Leafs 3.9
Goals againstSeattle Kraken 3.7Toronto Maple Leafs 3.9
Shots on goalSeattle Kraken 26.9Toronto Maple Leafs 22.8
Shots againstSeattle Kraken 30.9Toronto Maple Leafs 34.9
Shooting %Seattle Kraken 11.5%Toronto Maple Leafs 17.1%
Save %Seattle Kraken 89.0%Toronto Maple Leafs 90.0%
Power-play %Seattle Kraken 16.7%Toronto Maple Leafs 28.6%
Penalty kill %Seattle Kraken 63.9%Toronto Maple Leafs 87.0%
Faceoff %Seattle Kraken 49.8%Toronto Maple Leafs 49.6%
Penalty minutesSeattle Kraken 10.2Toronto Maple Leafs 13.3
HitsSeattle Kraken 17.2Toronto Maple Leafs 20.4
Blocked shotsSeattle Kraken 14.7Toronto Maple Leafs 10.4
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Kraken 2–2
Maple Leafs
Goals a gameGoals
5.8
SEA 2.8 · TOR 3.0
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 4
1 in overtime
- Jan 29, 2026: Seattle Kraken 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.
- Oct 18, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Seattle Kraken 4, after overtime.
- Feb 6, 2025: Seattle Kraken 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
- Oct 31, 2024: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Seattle Kraken 1.
Last five games
Kraken
2-2-1 - Loss, 1–5 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 24. Odds: Kraken 3.45, Wild 1.83.
- Win, 5–3 against Utah Mammoth, Oct 22. Odds: Kraken 3.50, Mammoth 1.76.
- Win, 4–3 against Detroit Red Wings, after a shootout, Oct 20. Odds: Kraken 2.60, Red Wings 2.20.
- Loss, 3–8 at Florida Panthers, Oct 17. Odds: Panthers 1.87, Kraken 3.25.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Tampa Bay Lightning, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
Maple Leafs
4-1-0 - Loss, 2–5 at Calgary Flames, Oct 26. Odds: Flames 2.85, Maple Leafs 2.05.
- Win, 7–2 at Edmonton Oilers, Oct 24. Odds: Oilers 1.96, Maple Leafs 3.00.
- Win, 5–4 against New York Rangers, Oct 22. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.45, Rangers 2.30.
- Win, 6–2 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 20. Odds: Blue Jackets 1.91, Maple Leafs 3.05.
- Win, 3–1 against San Jose Sharks, Oct 19. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.01, Sharks 3.00.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-1
- 01:59 Goal Seattle Kraken: Catton B. assists: Samoskevich M. 1-0
- 17:36 2 min Seattle Kraken: Catton B. Holding the stick
- 19:14 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: McKenna G. assists: Matthews A., Raddysh D. 1-1
2nd period3-1
- 00:16 Goal Seattle Kraken: Mahura J. assists: Meyers B., Gaudreau F. 2-1
- 01:19 2 min Seattle Kraken: Evans R. Hooking
- 01:46 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: McKenna G. assists: Matthews A., Roslovic J. 2-2
- 02:18 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Lettieri V. Tripping
- 03:33 Goal PPG Seattle Kraken: Stephenson C. assists: Dunn V., Beniers M. 3-2
- 04:49 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. Slashing
- 07:43 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: McKenna G. High sticking
- 10:58 Goal Seattle Kraken: Evans R. assists: Samoskevich M., Stephenson C. 4-2
- 12:37 5 min Seattle Kraken: Fleury C. Fighting
- 12:37 5 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Lettieri V. Fighting
- 15:45 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: MacEwen Z. Delay of game
3rd period1-2
- 06:03 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Mermis D. Cross checking
- 06:24 2 min Seattle Kraken: Eberle J.
- 08:02 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Roslovic J. assists: Cowan E., Stecher T. 4-3
- 18:30 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews A. assists: Raddysh D., McKenna G. 4-4
- 19:27 Goal Seattle Kraken: Montour B. assists: Eberle J., McMann B. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 3 days off for Seattle Kraken, 1 for Toronto Maple Leafs.
- In goal: Grubauer P. for Seattle Kraken (5-4-1 in the last 10 starts), Bobrovsky S. for Toronto Maple Leafs (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts).
- Power play vs penalty kill: 26.8% on the power play for Toronto Maple Leafs, 72.2% on the penalty kill for Seattle Kraken.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Toronto Maple Leafs.
- Head-to-head level at 2-2 after the last 4 meetings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (SEA) | 2.85 | 2.75 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TOR) | 2.05 | 2.10 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap SEA | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 |  Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 | Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Seattle Kraken host Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.