Sochi vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl prediction
Chance to win · 14% and 68% in regulation
Shaimardanov D.StartedSV 91.3% · GAA 3.11 · 3-5-1
Melnichuk A.StartedSV 91.4% · GAA 1.90 · 8-2-0All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 74%Full game
- 1X2WonLokomotivodds up 1.40Confidence 70%
- Over/UnderLostU6.5odds down 1.30Confidence 77%
- HandicapWonLokomotiv -0.5odds up 1.40Confidence 67%
- Banker of the day: Winner (incl. OT)WonLokomotivodds up 1.22Confidence 93%
- Double chanceWonLokomotiv or draw1.13Confidence 85%
- Draw no betWonLokomotiv1.17Confidence 82%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.18Confidence 81%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonLokomotivodds up 1.95Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostU1.51.68Confidence 58%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The banker is the day’s best bet at short odds, not its surest result. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Sochi 1–4
Lokomotiv Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min3–67%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–11st period0–323%chance
- Highest scoring periodLostTieMost goals2nd · 5 goals28%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 0-1, 1-1, 0-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (7%), 1-3 (6%), 1-2 (5%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formSochi
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Sochi 0–5
Lokomotiv - Oct 29, 2026: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 6, Sochi 2.
- Mar 4, 2026: Sochi 2, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3.
- Feb 14, 2026: Sochi 1, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 2, after overtime.
- Feb 1, 2026: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3, Sochi 0.
- Sep 22, 2025: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 5, Sochi 0.
Last five games
Sochi
2-3-0 - Win, 3–2 at Bars Kazan, Oct 12. Odds: Ak Bars Kazan 1.45, Sochi 5.60.
- Loss, 0–2 against Spartak Moscow, Oct 9. Odds: Sochi 4.70, Spartak Moscow 1.56.
- Loss, 2–5 against Spartak Moscow, Oct 7.
- Loss, 0–6 against Nizhny Novgorod, Oct 3.
- Win, 6–3 against Salavat Ufa, Sep 30.
Lokomotiv
3-2-0 - Loss, 2–5 at Cherepovets, Oct 15. Odds: Cherepovets 3.25, Lokomotiv 1.94.
- Win, 6–1 against Dinamo Minsk, Oct 10. Odds: Lokomotiv 1.77, Dinamo Minsk 3.80.
- Win, 2–0 at Bars Kazan, Oct 5.
- Loss, 3–4 at Dinamo Minsk, Oct 3.
- Win, 3–1 against Novosibirsk, Sep 30.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-3
- 02:56 2 min Sochi: Slepets K. Tripping
- 08:42 Goal Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Fiore G. assists: Falkovsky S., Kiryanov N. 0-1
- 13:47 Goal Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Bereglazov A. assists: Alexeyev D., Fiore G. 0-2
- 14:06 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Falkovsky S. Tripping
- 18:23 2 min Sochi: Guryev A. Cross checking
- 18:41 Goal PPG Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Kayumov A. assists: Shalunov M., Bereglazov A. 0-3
2nd period3-2
- 01:36 Goal Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Alexeyev D. assists: Polunin A., Falkovsky S. 0-4
- 01:36 Goalie change Sochi: Andreyanov P. replaces Shaimardanov D.
- 05:39 Goal Sochi: Vengryzhanovsky D. 1-4
- 08:08 2 min Sochi: Baldayev V. Elbowing
- 10:33 5 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Cherepanov N. Kneeing
- 11:14 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Polunin A. Slashing
- 12:04 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Ivanov G. Tripping
- 13:22 Goal PPG Sochi: Kagarlitsky D. assists: Khafizov T., Akhiyarov T. 2-4
- 15:09 Goal Sochi: Khafizov T. assists: Akhiyarov T., Gusev N. 3-4
- 18:57 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Kayumov A. Hooking
- 19:28 Goal SHG Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Yelesin A. 3-5
3rd period0-1
- 10:09 2 min Sochi: Akhiyarov T. Tripping
- 13:10 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Yemelyanov K. Interference
- 13:54 2 min Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Ivanov G. Tripping
- 19:57 Goal ENG Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Radulov A. 3-6
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Sochi, 1 for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl.
- 2-6-0 at home for Sochi this season.
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl.
- In goal: Shaimardanov D. for Sochi (3-5-1 in the last 9 starts), Melnichuk A. for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (8-2-0 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.9 per game — Sochi −1.8, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl +0.1 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (SOC) | 6.50 | 6.30 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.70 | 4.70 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (LOK) | 1.42 | 1.43 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5 | Line lowered |
| Handicap SOC | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
KHL standings
Regular Season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Moscow |
24 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 37 | .771 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl |
24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 35 | .729 | 64 | 39 | +25 |
| 3 |  Nizhny Novgorod |
23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 31 | .674 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow |
25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 30 | .600 | 66 | 56 | +10 |
| 5 |  Cherepovets |
25 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 30 | .600 | 59 | 57 | +2 |
| 6 |  Shanghai |
23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 30 | .652 | 68 | 59 | +9 |
| 7 |  SKA St. Petersburg |
23 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 25 | .543 | 72 | 68 | +4 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Minsk |
25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 25 | .500 | 60 | 74 | −14 |
| 9 |  Dynamo Moscow |
26 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 25 | .481 | 56 | 68 | −12 |
| 10 | Sochi |
24 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 16 | .333 | 42 | 81 | −39 |
| 11 |  Lada |
25 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 15 | .300 | 38 | 81 | −43 |
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Sochi host Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in the KHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.