Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction & Picks

Banker of the dayBanker Winner (incl. OT) Won

Lightning 1.23

Confidence93%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 71%

Full game

1X2WonLightning1.40Confidence 68%
Over/UnderWonU6.5odds up 1.68Confidence 53%
HandicapWonBlackhawks +3.51.26Confidence 64%
Banker of the day: Winner (incl. OT)WonLightningodds down 1.23Confidence 93%
Double chanceWonLightning or drawodds down 1.12Confidence 84%
Draw no betWonLightning1.17Confidence 80%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.11Confidence 87%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonLightningodds down 1.94Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.67Confidence 56%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The banker is the day’s best bet at short odds, not its surest result. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; the odds drifted 10% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Lightning 41

Blackhawks

Final 4–1

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 5

Draw after 60 minDraw 18% Decided in regulation

Tampa Bay to winTo win 76% TBL won

Score details

Correct scoreWon4–1After 60 min4–17%chance
1st period correct scoreWon2–01st period2–011%chance
Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals31%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 4-1
By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
Likeliest 4-1 (7%), 4-2 (4%), 3-1 (3%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record9-3-24-11-1

Home / road split7-0-00-6-1

StreakW1L4

Rest1 dayBack-to-back

Goals for3.72.3

Goals against3.23.9

In the standings3rd8th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.6−1.3

Goals for4.12.4

Goals against3.53.7

Shots on goal29.123.9

Shots against24.629.7

Shooting %14.1%10.0%

Save %86.6%88.9%

Power-play %18.4%9.3%

Penalty kill %80.0%86.0%

Faceoff %48.7%42.7%

Penalty minutes7.68.8

Blocked shots16.112.9

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Lightning 22

Blackhawks

The teams split the last four meetings

Goals a gameGoals 5.0 TBL 2.3 · CHI 2.8

Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0 1 of 4 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 2 of 4 1 in overtime · 1 in a shootout

Jan 23, 2026: Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2, after a shootout.
Oct 23, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3.
Jan 28, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4.
Jan 24, 2025: Chicago Blackhawks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4, after overtime.

Last five games

Lightning 2-1-2

Win, 4–2 against Detroit Red Wings, Nov 3. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Red Wings 4.90.
Overtime loss, 4–5 at Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Predators 3.30, Lightning 1.86.
Win, 6–4 against Winnipeg Jets, Oct 29. Odds: Lightning 1.67, Jets 3.90.
Overtime loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Lightning 2.90.
Loss, 3–6 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 23. Odds: Avalanche 2.15, Lightning 2.70.

Blackhawks 1-3-1

Loss, 3–5 at Florida Panthers, Nov 4. Odds: Panthers 1.58, Blackhawks 4.50.
Loss, 2–5 against Colorado Avalanche, Nov 2. Odds: Blackhawks 4.10, Avalanche 1.65.
Overtime loss, 4–5 at Boston Bruins, after overtime, Oct 31. Odds: Bruins 1.60, Blackhawks 4.10.
Loss, 1–4 at Detroit Red Wings, Oct 29. Odds: Red Wings 2.05, Blackhawks 3.02.
Win, 2–1 against Los Angeles Kings, Oct 27. Odds: Blackhawks 2.40, Kings 2.45.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period2-0

02:23 2 min Chicago Blackhawks: Del Mastro E. Tripping
04:12 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Hedman V. assists: Cirelli A., Hagel B. 1-0
18:22 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Mikheyev I. assists: Cernak E., Holmberg P. 2-0

2nd period0-0

01:59 5 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Truchon-Viel J. Fighting
01:59 5 min Chicago Blackhawks: Boucher D. Fighting
03:30 2 min Chicago Blackhawks: Bedard C. Hooking
09:52 2 min Chicago Blackhawks: Del Mastro E. Interference
10:30 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. Holding

3rd period2-1

02:38 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: McDonagh R. assists: Guentzel J., Point B. 3-0
05:08 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Mikheyev I. assists: Cernak E., Girgensons Z. 4-0
19:10 Goal Chicago Blackhawks: Kantserov R. assists: Rinzel S., Del Mastro E. 4-1

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Second game in two days for Chicago Blackhawks, who played yesterday.
4-game losing streak for Chicago Blackhawks coming into this game.
Odds moved: the odds on Tampa Bay Lightning dropped from 1.34 to 1.22 since they were first published.
7-0-0 at home for Tampa Bay Lightning this season.
0-6-1 away for Chicago Blackhawks this season.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (TBL)	1.31	1.30	Shortened
1X2: X (draw)	5.50	5.75	Drifted
1X2: 2 (CHI)	7.50	7.50	No change
Over/Under line	6	6	No change
Handicap TBL	−1.5	−2.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

NHL standings

Regular Season · Atlantic Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Boston Bruins	18	13	4	1	27	.750	68	41	+27
2	Montreal Canadiens	18	11	3	4	26	.722	62	55	+7
3	Tampa Bay Lightning	17	11	4	2	24	.706	63	53	+10
4	Ottawa Senators	19	11	6	2	24	.632	60	57	+3
5	Florida Panthers	19	10	7	2	22	.579	60	56	+4
6	Buffalo Sabres	17	8	6	3	19	.559	50	57	−7
7	Toronto Maple Leafs	20	8	10	2	18	.450	67	70	−3
8	Detroit Red Wings	19	7	9	3	17	.447	51	59	−8

Regular Season · Central Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Minnesota Wild	20	13	3	4	30	.750	65	44	+21
2	Colorado Avalanche	19	11	6	2	24	.632	78	59	+19
3	Nashville Predators	18	9	4	5	23	.639	55	51	+4
4	Dallas Stars	17	10	5	2	22	.647	49	41	+8
5	Utah Mammoth	18	10	7	1	21	.583	63	63	0
6	Winnipeg Jets	19	8	8	3	19	.500	53	65	−12
7	St. Louis Blues	18	8	8	2	18	.500	53	55	−2
8	Chicago Blackhawks	18	4	13	1	9	.250	39	76	−37

Playoffs

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details