Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning 4–, Detroit Red Wings 2
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 1.501X2 4.90
Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL) · USABenchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TBL
2
1
1
DET
0
1
1
65%Tampa Bay win · 54% in regulationTBL
Overtime or shootout · 21%OT / SO 21%
35%Detroit win · 25% in regulationDET
Chance to win · 54% and 25% in regulation
Vasilevski A.StartedSV 87.7% · GAA 3.00 · 6-3-1
Gibson J.StartedSV 86.2% · GAA 3.30 · 4-5-1
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Red Wings +2.5
odds up 1.44
Confidence67%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 67%Full game
- 1X2WonLightningodds down 1.56Confidence 55%
- Over/UnderWonO4.51.32Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonRed Wings +2.5odds up 1.44Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonLightningodds down 1.33Confidence 68%
- Double chanceWonLightning or drawodds down 1.19Confidence 76%
- Draw no betWonLightningodds down 1.30Confidence 71%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.09Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonLightningodds down 2.15Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.74Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Lightning 4–2
Red Wings
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 6
Draw after 60 minDraw
21%
Decided in regulation
Tampa Bay to winTo win
65%
TBL won
Score details
- Correct scoreWon4–2After 60 min4–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreWon2–01st period2–09%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · all three30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 5-3 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Tampa Bay Lightning
Detroit Red Wings
Tampa Bay Lightning
Detroit Red Wings
Season recordTampa Bay Lightning 8-3-2Detroit Red Wings 7-5-3
Home / road splitTampa Bay Lightning 6-0-0Detroit Red Wings 3-1-2
StreakTampa Bay Lightning L1Detroit Red Wings W1
RestTampa Bay Lightning 2 daysDetroit Red Wings Back-to-back
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 3.7Detroit Red Wings 3.1
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 3.3Detroit Red Wings 3.1
In the standingsTampa Bay Lightning 3rdDetroit Red Wings 8th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.5Detroit Red Wings +0.4
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 4.0Detroit Red Wings 3.4
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 3.5Detroit Red Wings 3.0
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 29.9Detroit Red Wings 28.0
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 26.1Detroit Red Wings 24.2
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 13.4%Detroit Red Wings 12.1%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 87.4%Detroit Red Wings 87.6%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 18.4%Detroit Red Wings 22.2%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 78.8%Detroit Red Wings 74.2%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 48.0%Detroit Red Wings 49.4%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 7.2Detroit Red Wings 6.8
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 20.1Detroit Red Wings 23.9
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 15.8Detroit Red Wings 13.3
Per game · TBL at home, DET away
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.9Detroit Red Wings −0.7
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 3.3Detroit Red Wings 2.6
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.4Detroit Red Wings 3.3
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 32.8Detroit Red Wings 28.0
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 21.3Detroit Red Wings 25.1
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 10.1%Detroit Red Wings 9.3%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 88.7%Detroit Red Wings 87.3%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 13.0%Detroit Red Wings 16.7%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 83.3%Detroit Red Wings 73.1%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 46.6%Detroit Red Wings 50.6%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 9.5Detroit Red Wings 5.8
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 25.5Detroit Red Wings 20.1
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 16.6Detroit Red Wings 13.9
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Lightning 3–2
Red Wings
Goals a gameGoals
6.2
TBL 3.6 · DET 2.6
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
3 of 5
3 in overtime
- Apr 13, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 3, after overtime.
- Mar 12, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 1.
- Nov 28, 2025: Detroit Red Wings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.
- Oct 17, 2025: Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1, after overtime.
- Apr 11, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Detroit Red Wings 4, after overtime.
Last five games
Lightning
2-1-2 - Overtime loss, 4–5 at Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Predators 3.30, Lightning 1.86.
- Win, 6–4 against Winnipeg Jets, Oct 29. Odds: Lightning 1.67, Jets 3.90.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Lightning 2.90.
- Loss, 3–6 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 23. Odds: Avalanche 2.15, Lightning 2.70.
- Win, 6–2 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 20. Odds: Golden Knights 2.40, Lightning 2.40.
Red Wings
3-2-0 - Win, 5–3 at Florida Panthers, Nov 2. Odds: Panthers 1.76, Red Wings 3.75.
- Loss, 4–5 against St. Louis Blues, Oct 31. Odds: Red Wings 2.25, Blues 2.60.
- Win, 4–1 against Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 29. Odds: Red Wings 2.05, Blackhawks 3.02.
- Win, 4–3 at Edmonton Oilers, after a shootout, Oct 26. Odds: Oilers 1.83, Red Wings 3.30.
- Loss, 1–4 at Calgary Flames, Oct 24. Odds: Flames 2.75, Red Wings 2.15.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-0
- 06:53 2 min Detroit Red Wings: Seider M. Interference
- 07:54 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Point B. assists: Kucherov N., D'Astous C. 1-0
- 08:36 2 min Detroit Red Wings: Brandsegg-Nygard M. Holding
- 13:01 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Point B. assists: Kucherov N., Cernak E. 2-0
2nd period1-1
- 00:01 Goalie change Detroit Red Wings: Tarasov D. replaces Gibson J.
- 08:41 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Cirelli A. assists: Goncalves G., Moser J.J. 3-0
- 10:23 Goal Detroit Red Wings: Raymond L. assists: Compher J.T. 3-1
- 11:49 2 min Detroit Red Wings: Chiarot B. Hooking
- 14:10 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. Tripping
3rd period1-1
- 03:36 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Truchon-Viel J. Holding
- 05:29 Goal PPG Detroit Red Wings: Compher J.T. assists: Copp A., Faulk J. 3-2
- 10:42 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Crozier M. High sticking
- 13:52 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Cernak E. Tripping
- 19:59 Goal ENG Tampa Bay Lightning: McDonagh R. 4-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Detroit Red Wings, who played yesterday.
- 6-0-0 at home for Tampa Bay Lightning this season.
- In goal: Vasilevski A. for Tampa Bay Lightning (6-3-1 in the last 10 starts), Gibson J. for Detroit Red Wings (4-5-1 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
- 6.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TBL) | 1.50 | 1.50 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.75 | 4.75 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (DET) | 4.90 | 4.90 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap TBL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 | Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Tampa Bay Lightning host Detroit Red Wings in the NHL on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.