Tampa Bay Lightning vs Seattle Kraken prediction
Chance to win · 45% and 32% in regulation
Vasilevski A.StartedSV 89.3% · GAA 2.20 · 5-5-0
Grubauer P.Surprise startSV 91.2% · GAA 2.70 · 5-4-1All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%Full game
- 1X2LostLightningodds down 1.83Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO5.5odds up 1.60Confidence 55%
- HandicapWonKraken +1.5odds up 1.83Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonLightningodds down 1.35Confidence 58%
- Double chanceWonLightning or drawodds down 1.29Confidence 70%
- Draw no betPushLightningodds down 1.29Confidence 61%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.09Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostLightningodds down 2.09Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.73Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Lightning 4–3
Kraken Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–3After 60 min3–32%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–18%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-3
- By period 2-0, 1-1, 1-2
- Likeliest 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%), 6-5 (0%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formTampa Bay Lightning
Seattle Kraken
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Lightning 3–1
Kraken - Mar 26, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Seattle Kraken 4, after overtime.
- Mar 17, 2026: Seattle Kraken 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.
- Feb 23, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Seattle Kraken 1.
- Dec 14, 2024: Seattle Kraken 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.
Last five games
Lightning
4-1-0 - Loss, 1–4 at New York Rangers, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
- Win, 5–3 at New York Islanders, Oct 10. Odds: Islanders 2.75, Lightning 2.20.
- Win, 3–2 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 8.
- Win, 4–1 against Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 5.
- Win, 3–1 against Washington Capitals, Oct 3.
Kraken
4-1-0 - Win, 3–2 at Philadelphia Flyers, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Flyers 2.41, Kraken 2.49.
- Win, 5–3 at Washington Capitals, Oct 11. Odds: Capitals 1.81, Kraken 3.76.
- Win, 6–3 at Detroit Red Wings, Oct 9. Odds: Red Wings 2.12, Kraken 2.90.
- Loss, 2–6 against Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 6.
- Win, 6–1 against Calgary Flames, Oct 4.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-1
- 05:43 Goal Seattle Kraken: Winterton R. assists: Gaudreau F. 0-1
- 10:00 2 min Seattle Kraken: Wright S. Hooking
- 16:53 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. assists: Point B., Guentzel J. 1-1
- 19:53 2 min Seattle Kraken: Catton B. Holding
2nd period1-0
- 03:38 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. assists: Cirelli A., James D. 2-1
- 10:14 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. Tripping
- 13:20 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Lilleberg E. High sticking
- 15:38 2 min Seattle Kraken: Meyers B. Tripping
3rd period1-2
- 02:47 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: James D. Interference
- 02:54 Goal PPG Seattle Kraken: McCann J. assists: Eberle J., Stephenson C. 2-2
- 09:58 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Mikheyev I. 3-2
- 15:41 Goal Seattle Kraken: Beniers M. assists: Dunn V. 3-3
Overtime1-0
- 02:07 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hedman V. assists: Holmberg P. 4-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Surprise in goal: Grubauer P. started for Seattle Kraken, not Daccord J..
- 3-game winning streak for Seattle Kraken coming into this game.
- 4-1-0 away for Seattle Kraken this season.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Tampa Bay Lightning.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TBL) | 1.60 | 1.60 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.45 | 4.45 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (SEA) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap TBL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 |  Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 | Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Tampa Bay Lightning host Seattle Kraken in the NHL on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.