Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vancouver Canucks prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning 4–, Vancouver Canucks 2
FT
Puck drop 16:00 ET
1X2 1.501X2 5.30
Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL) · USABenchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TBL
0
2
2
VAN
1
1
0
70%Tampa Bay win · 59% in regulationTBL
Overtime or shootout · 20%OT / SO 20%
30%Vancouver win · 21% in regulationVAN
Chance to win · 59% and 21% in regulation
Hildeby D.StartedSV 90.1% · GAA 3.00 · 4-4-2
Lankinen K.StartedSV 84.8% · GAA 4.80 · 4-6-0
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Canucks +2.5
odds up 1.58
Confidence65%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 69%Full game
- 1X2WonLightning1.44Confidence 62%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds up 1.35Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonCanucks +2.5odds up 1.58Confidence 65%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonLightningodds up 1.25Confidence 71%
- Double chanceWonLightning or drawodds down 1.14Confidence 80%
- Draw no betWonLightningodds down 1.20Confidence 76%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostLightningodds down 1.94Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.67Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Lightning 4–2
Canucks
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 6
Draw after 60 minDraw
20%
Decided in regulation
Tampa Bay to winTo win
70%
TBL won
Score details
- Correct scoreWon4–2After 60 min4–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–110%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-1 (3%), 3-2 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vancouver Canucks
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vancouver Canucks
Season recordTampa Bay Lightning 5-2-0Vancouver Canucks 2-6-1
Home / road splitTampa Bay Lightning 4-0-0Vancouver Canucks 1-4-1
StreakTampa Bay Lightning W1Vancouver Canucks L6
RestTampa Bay Lightning 1 dayVancouver Canucks 1 day
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 3.0Vancouver Canucks 3.1
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.7Vancouver Canucks 4.6
In the standingsTampa Bay Lightning 3rdVancouver Canucks 8th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.1Vancouver Canucks −1.8
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 2.5Vancouver Canucks 2.9
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.4Vancouver Canucks 4.7
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 31.3Vancouver Canucks 20.7
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 23.1Vancouver Canucks 32.8
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 8.0%Vancouver Canucks 14.0%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 90.5%Vancouver Canucks 85.7%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 6.5%Vancouver Canucks 13.2%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 87.9%Vancouver Canucks 65.0%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 44.9%Vancouver Canucks 46.2%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 8.0Vancouver Canucks 9.9
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 24.7Vancouver Canucks 23.6
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 16.9Vancouver Canucks 11.6
Per game · TBL at home, VAN away
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.4Vancouver Canucks −2.0
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 2.9Vancouver Canucks 2.4
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.5Vancouver Canucks 4.4
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 31.5Vancouver Canucks 23.1
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 22.9Vancouver Canucks 33.0
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2%Vancouver Canucks 10.4%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 89.1%Vancouver Canucks 86.7%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 8.5%Vancouver Canucks 21.2%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 84.4%Vancouver Canucks 65.6%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 45.3%Vancouver Canucks 44.5%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 10.1Vancouver Canucks 7.8
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 24.7Vancouver Canucks 20.5
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 16.2Vancouver Canucks 10.7
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Lightning 3–1
Canucks
Goals a gameGoals
6.8
TBL 4.0 · VAN 2.8
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 4
All decided in regulation
- Mar 19, 2026: Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.
- Nov 16, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vancouver Canucks 6.
- Dec 8, 2024: Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
- Oct 15, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vancouver Canucks 1.
Last five games
Lightning
4-1-0 - Win, 4–3 against Seattle Kraken, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
- Loss, 1–4 at New York Rangers, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
- Win, 5–3 at New York Islanders, Oct 10. Odds: Islanders 2.75, Lightning 2.20.
- Win, 3–2 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 8.
- Win, 4–1 against Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 5.
Canucks
0-4-1 - Overtime loss, 2–3 at Florida Panthers, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Panthers 1.53, Canucks 4.75.
- Loss, 2–3 at New York Islanders, Oct 13. Odds: Islanders 1.80, Canucks 3.78.
- Loss, 2–6 at New York Rangers, Oct 11. Odds: Rangers 1.65, Canucks 4.65.
- Loss, 1–4 at New Jersey Devils, Oct 10. Odds: Devils 1.86, Canucks 3.30.
- Loss, 2–7 at Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 8.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 13:20 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. Tripping
- 15:32 Goal Vancouver Canucks: Karlsson L. assists: Cotter P., Chytil F. 0-1
2nd period2-1
- 03:19 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Point B. Tripping
- 04:35 Goal PPG Vancouver Canucks: Pettersson E. assists: Lekkerimaki J., Boeser B. 0-2
- 05:35 2 min Vancouver Canucks: Ohgren L. Hooking
- 06:30 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. assists: Hagel B., Guentzel J. 1-2
- 11:23 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. assists: Point B. 2-2
3rd period2-0
- 02:04 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. assists: D'Astous C., Point B. 3-2
- 02:26 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Hedman V. Cross checking
- 02:26 2 min Vancouver Canucks: Gallagher B. Roughing
- 15:57 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. 4-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 6-game losing streak for Vancouver Canucks coming into this game.
- 1-4-1 away for Vancouver Canucks this season.
- In goal: Hildeby D. for Tampa Bay Lightning (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts), Lankinen K. for Vancouver Canucks (4-6-0 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.9 per game — Tampa Bay Lightning +0.1, Vancouver Canucks −1.8 over their recent games.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TBL) | 1.50 | 1.50 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.90 | 4.90 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (VAN) | 5.30 | 5.30 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap TBL | −1.5 | −2.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 |  Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 | Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Tampa Bay Lightning host Vancouver Canucks in the NHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.