Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning 6–, Winnipeg Jets 4
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 1.671X2 3.90
Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL) · USABenchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TBL
1
4
1
WPG
1
0
3
62%Tampa Bay win · 50% in regulationTBL
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
38%Winnipeg win · 27% in regulationWPG
Chance to win · 50% and 27% in regulation
Vasilevski A.StartedSV 88.1% · GAA 2.70 · 6-4-0
Skinner S.StartedSV 90.6% · GAA 2.70 · 3-4-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Jets +2.5
odds down 1.40
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2WonLightning1.72Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.34Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonJets +2.5odds down 1.40Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonLightningodds up 1.44Confidence 63%
- Double chanceWonLightning or draw1.25Confidence 73%
- Draw no betWonLightningodds up 1.38Confidence 66%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.09Confidence 87%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostLightningodds down 2.27Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.78Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Lightning 4–2
Jets
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 10
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Tampa Bay to winTo win
62%
TBL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min6–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–19%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 2nd & 3rd30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 5-3 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets
Season recordTampa Bay Lightning 7-3-1Winnipeg Jets 4-5-3
Home / road splitTampa Bay Lightning 5-0-0Winnipeg Jets 2-1-2
StreakTampa Bay Lightning L2Winnipeg Jets L6
RestTampa Bay Lightning 4 daysWinnipeg Jets 1 day
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 3.5Winnipeg Jets 2.3
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 3.1Winnipeg Jets 3.0
In the standingsTampa Bay Lightning 3rdWinnipeg Jets 6th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.8Winnipeg Jets −0.8
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 3.7Winnipeg Jets 2.2
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.9Winnipeg Jets 3.0
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 30.8Winnipeg Jets 26.6
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 24.3Winnipeg Jets 27.9
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 12.0%Winnipeg Jets 8.3%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 88.9%Winnipeg Jets 89.6%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 14.0%Winnipeg Jets 6.5%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 83.8%Winnipeg Jets 75.9%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 50.1%Winnipeg Jets 46.1%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 8.6Winnipeg Jets 6.1
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 20.9Winnipeg Jets 24.2
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 16.2Winnipeg Jets 14.4
Per game · TBL at home, WPG away
Goal differential per gameTampa Bay Lightning +0.5Winnipeg Jets −0.8
Goals forTampa Bay Lightning 2.9Winnipeg Jets 2.2
Goals againstTampa Bay Lightning 2.4Winnipeg Jets 3.0
Shots on goalTampa Bay Lightning 32.8Winnipeg Jets 27.7
Shots againstTampa Bay Lightning 21.3Winnipeg Jets 29.4
Shooting %Tampa Bay Lightning 8.8%Winnipeg Jets 7.9%
Save %Tampa Bay Lightning 88.7%Winnipeg Jets 90.1%
Power-play %Tampa Bay Lightning 10.4%Winnipeg Jets 19.4%
Penalty kill %Tampa Bay Lightning 82.2%Winnipeg Jets 79.5%
Faceoff %Tampa Bay Lightning 47.5%Winnipeg Jets 47.6%
Penalty minutesTampa Bay Lightning 10.1Winnipeg Jets 10.4
HitsTampa Bay Lightning 25.6Winnipeg Jets 21.4
Blocked shotsTampa Bay Lightning 16.8Winnipeg Jets 12.6
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Lightning 2–3
Jets
Goals a gameGoals
6.6
TBL 3.2 · WPG 3.4
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Nov 8, 2026: Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.
- Mar 5, 2026: Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.
- Jan 29, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 1.
- Nov 14, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 1.
- Nov 3, 2024: Winnipeg Jets 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Last five games
Lightning
3-1-1 - Overtime loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Lightning 2.90.
- Loss, 3–6 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 23. Odds: Avalanche 2.15, Lightning 2.70.
- Win, 6–2 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 20. Odds: Golden Knights 2.40, Lightning 2.40.
- Win, 4–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 17. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Canucks 5.30.
- Win, 4–3 against Seattle Kraken, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
Jets
0-4-1 - Loss, 1–5 against Florida Panthers, Oct 27. Odds: Jets 2.70, Panthers 2.15.
- Loss, 1–2 against Montreal Canadiens, Oct 25. Odds: Jets 2.55, Canadiens 2.30.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 at Dallas Stars, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: Stars 1.70, Jets 4.00.
- Loss, 1–2 at St. Louis Blues, Oct 20. Odds: Blues 2.15, Jets 2.75.
- Loss, 2–3 against Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 17. Odds: Jets 3.55, Hurricanes 1.78.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-1
- 02:20 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Point B. assists: Kucherov N., Guentzel J. 1-0
- 17:45 Goal Winnipeg Jets: Pionk N. assists: Perfetti C., Scheifele M. 1-1
2nd period4-0
- 02:55 2 min Winnipeg Jets: Bjorck V. Hooking
- 06:50 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: McDonagh R. Interference
- 09:43 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Geekie C. assists: James D., Truchon-Viel J. 2-1
- 10:49 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. Tripping
- 14:25 2 min Winnipeg Jets: DeMelo D. Holding
- 15:56 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Cirelli A. assists: Holmberg P., Goncalves G. 3-1
- 18:07 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Carlson J. assists: Holmberg P., Hagel B. 4-1
- 19:03 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. assists: Cirelli A., Holmberg P. 5-1
3rd period1-3
- 00:01 Goalie change Winnipeg Jets: Daws N. replaces Skinner S.
- 07:00 Goal Winnipeg Jets: Samberg D. assists: Perfetti C., Scheifele M. 5-2
- 08:50 Goal Winnipeg Jets: Pionk N. assists: Mercer D., Connor K. 5-3
- 10:54 2 min Winnipeg Jets: Bjorck V. Interference
- 17:12 Goal Winnipeg Jets: Connor K. assists: Scheifele M., Samberg D. 5-4
- 18:29 Goal ENG Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. assists: Cirelli A., Hagel B. 6-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 6-game losing streak for Winnipeg Jets coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Tampa Bay Lightning, 1 for Winnipeg Jets.
- 5-0-0 at home for Tampa Bay Lightning this season.
- In goal: Vasilevski A. for Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Skinner S. for Winnipeg Jets (3-4-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.6 per game — Tampa Bay Lightning +0.8, Winnipeg Jets −0.8 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TBL) | 1.67 | 1.67 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.50 | 4.50 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (WPG) | 3.90 | 3.90 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap TBL | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 | Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Tampa Bay Lightning host Winnipeg Jets in the NHL on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.