Texas Stars vs Ontario Reign prediction
Chance to win · 33% and 45% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2WonOntarioodds down 2.47Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.51.39Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonOntario +1.5odds up 1.31Confidence 72%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonOntarioodds down 1.95Confidence 58%
- Double chanceWonOntario or drawodds down 1.53Confidence 69%
- Draw no betWonOntarioodds down 1.98Confidence 60%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.08Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostOntarioodds down 3.00Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.85Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Texas 1–4
Ontario Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min3–54%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period1–07%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (4%), 2-5 (4%), 2-3 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formTexas Stars
Ontario Reign
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Texas 3–2
Ontario - Oct 24, 2026: Texas Stars 5, Ontario Reign 2.
- Jan 18, 2026: Texas Stars 3, Ontario Reign 1.
- Jan 17, 2026: Texas Stars 3, Ontario Reign 4.
- Dec 9, 2025: Ontario Reign 6, Texas Stars 3.
- Nov 30, 2025: Ontario Reign 1, Texas Stars 4.
Last five games
Texas
0-3-2 - Overtime loss, 3–4 at Manitoba Moose, after overtime, Oct 18. Odds: Manitoba 1.91, Texas 3.00.
- Loss, 4–7 at Manitoba Moose, Oct 16. Odds: Manitoba 2.50, Texas 2.07.
- Loss, 1–6 at Hershey Bears, Oct 11. Odds: Hershey 2.63, Texas 2.20.
- Loss, 1–2 at Hershey Bears, Oct 10. Odds: Hershey 2.95, Texas 1.92.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 against Iowa Wild, after a shootout, Oct 3.
Ontario
3-2-0 - Win, 3–2 against Calgary Wranglers, Oct 20. Odds: Ontario 2.70, Calgary 2.05.
- Loss, 2–5 against Henderson Silver Knights, Oct 17. Odds: Ontario 2.37, Henderson 2.20.
- Win, 3–2 at San Diego Gulls, Oct 14. Odds: San Diego 2.25, Ontario 2.45.
- Loss, 2–6 against Coachella Valley Firebirds, Oct 3.
- Win, 6–5 at Coachella Valley Firebirds, after overtime, Oct 2.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 01:07 Goal Texas Stars: Sgarbossa M. assists: Rickwood E., Hryckowian D. 1-0
2nd period1-3
- 09:30 Goal Ontario Reign: Ziemmer K. assists: Isogai K. 1-1
- 12:18 Goal Ontario Reign: Kirsanov K. assists: Guttman C., Chromiak M. 1-2
- 13:58 Goal PPG Ontario Reign: Connors K. assists: Jamsen A., Ziemmer K. 1-3
- 16:41 Goal Texas Stars: Seminoff M. assists: Minnetian A., Shlaine A. 2-3
3rd period1-2
- 13:13 Goal PPG Texas Stars: Sgarbossa M. assists: Rickwood E., Hryckowian D. 3-3
- 15:36 Goal Ontario Reign: Chromiak M. assists: Pederson L., Guttman C. 3-4
- 17:22 Goal Ontario Reign: Chromiak M. 3-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 5-game losing streak for Texas Stars coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Texas Stars, 2 for Ontario Reign.
- Goal differential gap of 1.2 per game — Texas Stars −1.6, Ontario Reign −0.4 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Texas Stars.
- Save % gap: Texas Stars 86.6%, Ontario Reign 89.8% over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TEX) | 2.20 | 2.20 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.30 | 4.30 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (ONT) | 2.50 | 2.50 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap TEX | −0.5 | −0.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Grand Rapids Griffins |
14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | .786 | 56 | 35 | +21 |
| 2 |  Manitoba Moose |
15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 22 | .733 | 56 | 38 | +18 |
| 3 |  Milwaukee Admirals |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | .615 | 33 | 28 | +5 |
| 4 |  Iowa Wild |
16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 15 | .469 | 42 | 47 | −5 |
| 5 |  Chicago Wolves |
13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 | .500 | 36 | 46 | −10 |
| 6 |  Rockford IceHogs |
13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | .423 | 33 | 43 | −10 |
| 7 | Texas Stars |
14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 9 | .321 | 40 | 60 | −20 |
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tucson Roadrunners |
13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | .769 | 43 | 28 | +15 |
| 2 |  Abbotsford Canucks |
13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 18 | .692 | 45 | 36 | +9 |
| 3 |  Colorado Eagles |
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 18 | .600 | 44 | 38 | +6 |
| 4 |  Calgary Wranglers |
15 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 16 | .533 | 48 | 45 | +3 |
| 5 |  Henderson Silver Knights |
12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 16 | .667 | 28 | 24 | +4 |
| 6 |  Coachella Valley Firebirds |
14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .500 | 42 | 50 | −8 |
| 7 | Ontario Reign |
14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 13 | .464 | 39 | 47 | −8 |
| 8 |  San Diego Gulls |
13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | .500 | 31 | 32 | −1 |
| 9 |  San Jose Barracuda |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 37 | 48 | −11 |
| 10 |  Bakersfield Condors |
12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 9 | .375 | 28 | 35 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Texas Stars host Ontario Reign in the AHL on Friday, October 23, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.